Mar 12
Concern is growing for the potential of severe weather Thursday. A strong and potentially damaging wind event is still on the table Wednesday night through Thursday, as well…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/12/video-concern-is-increasing-for-the-potential-of-severe-weather-thursday-strong-wind-event-on-deck/
Mar 12
Strong winds and the potential of strong storms loom Thursday. We look in more detail at these threats and ahead to the pattern for late March and into April…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/12/video-closer-look-at-the-strong-wind-and-storm-potential-more-on-the-late-march-april-pattern/
Mar 11
One more unseasonably chilly spell awaits late-March (behind our mid-March spring “tease”), but we continue to believe an unseasonably warm stretch of weather gets going by the last few days of the month- continuing into April. Furthermore, meteorological spring overall continues to look warm, relative to average, for central Indiana. In the event you missed our Spring Outlook earlier, it can be found here.
However, what follows the late-March set-back is a more significant and sustained push of unseasonably warm conditions.
Note the positive PNA that will help drive the chilly pattern next week returns to neutral as we put a wrap on the month:
To no surprise, modeling is painting a vastly different look as we close March and open April.
We turn cooler next week with the positive PNA in control, but this won’t last…
Note the significant change aloft (and at the surface) as we close the month and get set to head into April…
Longer term, modeling continues to give us an actual spring this year. We continue to expect average to slightly above average temperatures in April, complete with slightly above normal precipitation (with a “ramp up” in severe chances, locally).
Modeling is following suit with that idea:
It should also be noted that while not shown, the new European Weeklies in this evening also support the warmer than normal April idea.
As we look forward, we continue to research and build our summer outlook. Early indications would suggest that we transition out of an overall warmer than average spring towards a seasonal, to slightly below average, time of things this summer, complete with above normal precipitation. We, obviously, still have some time to go before the final product is ready to be published, but stay tuned. We are planning to launch our official summer outlook in early May.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/11/long-range-update-and-summer-preview/
Mar 11
High winds and storms arrive Thursday. We also look ahead towards late-March and April…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/11/video-high-winds-and-storms-arrive-thursday-thoughts-turn-to-april/
Mar 09
Our quiet Saturday will transition to a rather “bumpy” time of things by the afternoon into tonight as a storm system moves through. Showers and embedded thunder off to our southwest this morning will rumble across central Indiana this afternoon and evening.
Forecast radar products show widespread showers and embedded thunder through the afternoon hours into the evening. Coverage of rain will be greatest between 2p and 6p. Some locally heavy downpours are possible. While severe weather isn’t expected across central Indiana, a few strong to severe storms, capable of damaging straight line winds, will be possible across southern parts of the state. Storm total rainfall amounts of 0.75″ to 1.25″ will be common across the region.
Attention will then shift to strong and gusty winds this evening into tonight. Gusts of 50-55 MPH will be common across central Indiana during this timeframe. Unfortunately, downed trees and potential for power outages will be on the increase tonight.
Winds will remain gusty into Sunday morning, but begin to diminish through the day.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/09/rain-and-embedded-thunder-increases-this-afternoon-strong-wind-event-tonight/
Mar 09
A wet and stormy time of things will develop this afternoon, followed by increasingly gusty winds tonight and early Sunday. Winds will gust in excess of 50 MPH at times…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/09/video-storms-rumble-in-this-afternoon-looking-ahead-to-the-remainder-of-march/
Mar 08
The weekend will feature showers and thunderstorms along with strong and gusty winds (in excess of 50 MPH at times Saturday evening-night)…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/08/friday-morning-video-update-unsettled-and-windy-weekend-on-deck/
Mar 07
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/07/long-range-video-update-changeable-pattern-for-the-2nd-half-of-march-into-april/
Mar 07
Accumulating snow arrives tonight and we look ahead to an active weather pattern…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/07/all-access-video-talk-about-a-busy-pattern/
Mar 06
We’ll apologize in advance for the long-winded post tonight, but there’s a lot to cover. Not only do we have the accumulating snow on deck, a couple of strong storm systems this weekend into the middle of next week, but the long range pattern is set to turn cold (again) after a mid-month respite. We also want to look ahead to our early thoughts towards April…
Let’s take things one at a time:
Thursday-Friday Snow
While we don’t have major changes to our ongoing snowfall forecast, we have “sagged” the swath of 1″ to 3″ snow south just a hair given the latest computer model guidance. Steadiest snow should fall Thursday night into the predawn hours Friday. We’d anticipate a slick Friday morning commute through the heart of central Indiana.
Snow should exit off to the southeast around, or just before, lunchtime Friday. As always, your ground-truth reports are welcome (feel free to send to us on Twitter or via e-mail).
Warmer Side Of Things
The ‘mean’ trough position will shift to the west (temporarily) and lead to an overall milder time of things for the mid-month stretch. Unfortunately, the milder air will come with a wetter pattern.
This milder, wetter pattern will be highlighted by (2) storms:
I. Saturday, 3/10
II. Tuesday-Wednesday, 3/12-3/13
Both storm systems will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours and embedded thunder. Greatest chances of severe will remain south of central IN with this weekend’s storm, but may be further north next week. We’ll keep a close eye on things and issue Client Briefs if need be as we get closer.
A combination of the GFS and European computer models print-out rainfall totals between 1″ and 2″ over the upcoming 10-days and this seems reasonable given the fact both storm systems will be able to tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture.
From a temperature perspective, the brutal cold will come to an end behind our late week snowmaker. While “transient” chill will follow both of the upcoming storm systems, we’re heading into a much milder pattern, overall, through the mid-March stretch. Mildest air will come directly in front of the storm systems, highlighted by a couple of 60 deg. + days the middle of next week.
Positive PNA takes over
Unfortunately (for lovers of spring), the mid-month warm-up will be only a “tease” as we’re set to trend cooler, relative to normal, for the last 10 days of the month. The reason? A developing positive PNA.
To no surprise, we see the cooler pattern returning on the computer models:
Not only will we turn colder to close the month, but Thursday likely won’t be our last accumulating snow of the season…
Looking Towards April
Despite the late-March “set back” to a chilly time of things, we continue to think a more sustained “stick and hold” spring pattern looms around the corner. In fact, we agree with the latest CFSv2 delivering a warmer than normal pattern for April, as a whole, to the eastern portion of the country.
Note that as we go, the model is getting warmer for April with each passing day. As things stand now, we think the trough will pull back to the west with a more sustained ridge in place across the eastern portion of the country in April. With this, a wetter than average regime likely awaits, including an uptick in severe chances further north into the region.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/06/running-the-gamut-looking-ahead-to-april/