Category: Severe Weather

May 24

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. Summer-like pattern arrives for most just in time for the unofficial start to summer.

II. Cold front rumbles in late week with a better chance of organized storms and much cooler air for the weekend.

The upcoming 7-day period will feature above normal temperatures for a change overall. Keep in mind, the period will end cooler but warmth (and humidity) will be the headline for the majority of the week.
Overall, precipitation will run near normal levels for the period, primarily driven by “splash and dash” coverage of storms daily.
We are forecasting between 0.50” and 1” this week on a widespread basis. There will, however, be much higher amounts where slow moving storms track.

Forecast period: 05.24.20 through 05.31.20

The majority of this forecast period will feature a “rinse and repeat” forecast on a daily basis: warm to hot, humid, and daily chances of isolated to widely scattered thunder. The exception will be late week (centered on Friday) as a cold front drops in from the north. This will result in better coverage of thunderstorms along with much cooler air by next weekend (good bet lows fall into the upper 40s by next weekend). Looking ahead to early June looks to continue the “back and forth” theme as we welcome in meteorological summer.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/24/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-8/

May 23

VIDEO: Rinse And Repeat; Warmth And Humidity On The Rise…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/23/video-rinse-and-repeat-warmth-and-humidity-on-the-rise/

May 17

VIDEO: Discussing The Severe/ Localized Flooding Threat Tonight And Looking Ahead To The Holiday Weekend…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/17/video-discussing-the-severe-localized-flooding-threat-tonight-and-looking-ahead-to-the-holiday-weekend/

May 17

Risk Of Rotating Storms This Evening-Tonight…

Quick short-term update this morning to discuss the potential of severe weather later this evening and into the nighttime hours. (We’ll have a more in-depth video update posted this evening, including longer range thoughts).

This morning has featured a few rain showers scattered about central Indiana, but the heavier, more organized, rain from the overnight is long gone (for now). While showers will impact central Indiana at times into the early afternoon hours, it’s not until late evening and the nighttime hours that we anticipate more organized shower and thunderstorm activity. Given the ingredients in place, there’s the potential of a few rotating storms tonight and subsequent risk of tornadoes. Sunshine, or not, it’ll be important to remain weather-aware tonight and have a means of getting the latest warnings that may be issued. Should we see a period of sunshine later this afternoon, the threat of severe weather will be elevated tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) includes central and western portions of the state in a Slight Risk of severe weather in their most recent Day 1 Outlook.

The window of severe weather potential appears to come after 8p for central Indiana, continuing into the overnight hours.

Locally heavy rain will shift from western Indiana (tonight) into the eastern half of the state (Monday). Widespread 1″ to 2″ of additional rain is likely.

As the upper low “cuts off” early-mid week, shower chances will continue along with cooler temperatures.

Make it a great Sunday! Chat with y’all a bit later today!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/17/risk-of-rotating-storms-this-evening-tonight/

May 16

VIDEO: Gorgeous Saturday; Storms Return Tonight And Looking Ahead Towards Memorial Day Weekend…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/16/video-gorgeous-saturday-storms-return-tonight-and-looking-ahead-towards-memorial-day-weekend/

May 16

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. Cut off upper low will keep things cool and unsettled for much of the upcoming week across the East.

II. Summer-like heat is poised to expand across a good chunk of the area around and just after Memorial Day weekend.

Below normal temperatures are expected across not only our area over the upcoming 7-day period, but a good portion of the East, courtesy of a “cut off” upper low.
The upper level low will also be responsible for generating a wet pattern along the eastern seaboard.
1.5” to 2” of rain is expected during the period across central Indiana. Most of this will fall tonight into Sunday.
A couple gusty storms are possible across the area Sunday. Overall, widespread severe weather isn’t expected during the period.

Forecast Period: 05.16.20 through 05.23.20

Most of our Saturday will feature beautiful weather to spend time outdoors. In fact, we’re not expecting a drop of rain across central Indiana through the daytime. Add in highs around 80° and a gorgeous day is in the making! Get out and enjoy it!

Weather conditions will begin to go downhill tonight and Sunday as periods of showers and thunderstorms develop. Locally heavy rain is expected. This is all thanks to an area of low pressure and associated cold front that will help pull in a much cooler airmass as we progress through early week. After the heavy rain threat tonight into Sunday, the showers that fall early week (associated with the upper low) will be more of the nuisance variety.

That much cooler air mass will linger through a good portion of the week before an upper level ridge expands into the area around Memorial Day weekend. This will deliver a more summer-like airmass to the immediate area.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/16/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-7/

May 14

Thursday Morning Rambles: Storms Accompany Warmth; Interesting “Twist” To The Longer Range…

I. After a cold and dry open to May, (Month-to-date, Indianapolis is running 8.4° below avg. and 1.24” below normal in the precipitation department) changes have arrived.

II. A warm front will lift north through the state today and deliver those warmer changes. The transition from cool to more of an early summer feel will be met with a couple rounds of storms today. Some of those storms will be strong to severe (damaging winds being the greatest concern), especially north of the city. Strongest storms should arrive across the northern half of the state during the early to mid afternoon hours.

III. A “half-n-half” weekend is expected. After a wet Friday, drier air is expected to arrive to help us out Saturday. Showers and storms will return Sunday courtesy of a cold front and associated surface low. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Friday & Sunday and when you add in what falls today, most of the state from the city and points north can expect widespread 2”-2.5” with locally heavier amounts.

IV. An area of low pressure and upper level trough is now shown to “cut off” over the Mid-Atlantic region in the medium range period. This is forecast to dramatically cool the Monday through Thursday time frame (instead of 80s, we’re now talking upper 50s, 60s and low 70s during the period). This is worth keeping an eye on as models can struggle handling these kind of features, but as it stands now, after a brief encounter with warmth this weekend, it doesn’t appear as if we’ll get back to the heat until Memorial Day weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/14/thursday-morning-rambles-storms-accompany-warmth-interesting-twist-to-the-longer-range/

May 13

Off To The Races; Warmth Met With Periodic Storms…

A band of light showers is falling across southern Indiana this morning, but these are expected to diminish before pushing into central Indiana. Most of the remainder of our Wednesday should be rain-free.

The quiet times will give way to a couple of rounds of storms during the overnight and into Friday. Most notably for central Indiana, we think storm chances will increase significantly after midnight and through the predawn hours Thursday. Locally heavy rain and vivid lightning is expected with the stronger storms.

These storms are in association with a warm front lifting north through the state. Speaking of warm, we’ll certainly notice a difference in air masses between today (still relatively cool and dry) and tomorrow (much warmer and more humid). In fact, highs Thursday will flirt with 80° across most of central Indiana.


Once we get rid of the early morning storms, most of the remainder of our Thursday will be dry and feature a return of the sun.

Another round of storms is expected Thursday night into Friday, but most of these will remain well north of our area. A few of these could become severe across northwestern Indiana during this period.

Rain and storm chances will increase once again during the day Friday across central Indiana. A few strong storms will be possible.

As we look ahead to the weekend, it appears we’ll be able to enjoy a mostly dry day Saturday (widely scattered storm possible) before more widespread storms return Sunday. Warm and humid conditions will prevail. A cold front will move through the area early next week which will allow for briefly cooler, drier air to move in during the 1st half of next week. Before that takes place, rainfall amounts between tonight and Sunday are expected to range from 1.5” – 2” with locally heavier totals across central Indiana. Heavier rainfall amounts can be expected across northern Indiana (widespread 3” to 4” amounts during the same period).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/13/off-to-the-races-warmth-met-with-periodic-storms/

May 10

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. Additional threat of late season frost/ freeze early in the forecast period.

II. Transition in the pattern midweek signals a significant flip from the record chill across the East to one much more typical for mid-late May. Meanwhile, the West will turn much cooler.

A transition in our overall weather pattern will lead to a return of wet weather mid-late week, including multiple rounds of t-storms from the Plains into the Ohio Valley.
7-day rainfall should run between 1.75″ and 2.25″ with locally heavier amounts across central Indiana.
While the period will run cooler than normal, it’s because the first few days this week will run so far below normal. We’ll actually warm significantly mid-late week, however, the deviation from normal won’t be enough to tip the scale from the week being cooler overall across the Plains and East.
A couple gusty storms are possible across central and eastern IN this afternoon. We’ll also have to closely monitor late week for the threat of additional strong thunderstorms.

Forecast Period: 05.10.20 through 05.17.20

An area of low pressure and associated cold front will blast across the Ohio Valley during the next 24 hours. Ahead of the front, scattered showers are already entering the state from the west this morning. As we progress into the afternoon, we’ll watch for the potential of a couple skinny lines of thunderstorms try to develop across central and eastern parts of the state. A couple of these storms could quickly pulse to strong – severe levels and pose a threat of damaging straight line winds and hail. Once the front scoots to our east, we’ll notice a much colder (yet again) northwesterly breeze and drier conditions to open the work week. There will be a threat of another frost and freeze by Tuesday morning. Patchy frost is also possible Wednesday morning, especially across east-central parts of the state.

Thereafter, our region will undergo a rather significant flip in the overall pattern. As a result, an airmass much more typical of mid-May will engulf the eastern portion of the country. With the significantly warmer conditions will also come a few rounds of rain and thunder during the mid-late week stretch. Locally heavy rain is likely towards the end of the period including the threat of additional strong thunderstorms in the Thursday-Saturday time frame.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/10/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-6/

May 02

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. A cold front will settle south into a warm and at least marginally unstable environment tonight into early Sunday morning. This will result in a rather rapid expansion of thunderstorms across the central Ohio Valley tonight.

II. The next big item has to do with the unseasonably cold airmass that will unload into the eastern half of the country, but this is more of a late Week 1 into Week 2 situation.

Unseasonably dry conditions will continue to allow the Deep South to dry out over the upcoming week. Meanwhile, the Great Lakes region also should run drier than normal.

Across immediate central Indiana, we’re targeting the upcoming 7-day period to produce between 1.5” and 2” of rain and most of that will fall tonight-early Sunday morning.
A highly amplified pattern will emerge late in the forecast period resulting in the overall 7-day period tilting towards a cooler than average one. Even colder air is scheduled next weekend into Week 2.
The best chance of a few strong to severe storms will take place late tonight into early Sunday morning as a cold front settles south into a briefly warmer/ unstable air mass.

Forecast Period: 05.02.20 through 05.09.20

Most of our Saturday will feature dry and pleasant conditions. It’ll be a great day to get caught up on yard work around the house before things take on a stormy turn tonight. A cold front will settle into the briefly warmer and more humid air mass and will ignite thunderstorm development by late evening. A few of these storms will likely become strong to severe late evening into the overnight period, including the potential of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Once the front settles to our south, the convection will also move south and out of our area mid-late Sunday morning. Beforehand, a swath of 1” rains are likely throughout central Indiana with a few locally heavier totals.

There will then be a couple of additional cold fronts to track through the upcoming week: Monday night into Tuesday and again Friday into Saturday. Both fronts should provide additional rain chances during that time frame followed by cooler air.

It’s the weekend front that will usher in more of a winter-like feel including the threat of late season frost/ freeze conditions during the 7-10 day period. We may have not even seen the last of snow for the season…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/02/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-5/

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