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Category: Severe Weather
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/16/video-gorgeous-saturday-storms-return-tonight-and-looking-ahead-towards-memorial-day-weekend/
May 16
Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…
Weekly Highlights:
I. Cut off upper low will keep things cool and unsettled for much of the upcoming week across the East.
II. Summer-like heat is poised to expand across a good chunk of the area around and just after Memorial Day weekend.
Forecast Period: 05.16.20 through 05.23.20
Most of our Saturday will feature beautiful weather to spend time outdoors. In fact, we’re not expecting a drop of rain across central Indiana through the daytime. Add in highs around 80° and a gorgeous day is in the making! Get out and enjoy it!
Weather conditions will begin to go downhill tonight and Sunday as periods of showers and thunderstorms develop. Locally heavy rain is expected. This is all thanks to an area of low pressure and associated cold front that will help pull in a much cooler airmass as we progress through early week. After the heavy rain threat tonight into Sunday, the showers that fall early week (associated with the upper low) will be more of the nuisance variety.
That much cooler air mass will linger through a good portion of the week before an upper level ridge expands into the area around Memorial Day weekend. This will deliver a more summer-like airmass to the immediate area.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/16/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-7/
May 14
Thursday Morning Rambles: Storms Accompany Warmth; Interesting “Twist” To The Longer Range…
I. After a cold and dry open to May, (Month-to-date, Indianapolis is running 8.4° below avg. and 1.24” below normal in the precipitation department) changes have arrived.
II. A warm front will lift north through the state today and deliver those warmer changes. The transition from cool to more of an early summer feel will be met with a couple rounds of storms today. Some of those storms will be strong to severe (damaging winds being the greatest concern), especially north of the city. Strongest storms should arrive across the northern half of the state during the early to mid afternoon hours.
III. A “half-n-half” weekend is expected. After a wet Friday, drier air is expected to arrive to help us out Saturday. Showers and storms will return Sunday courtesy of a cold front and associated surface low. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Friday & Sunday and when you add in what falls today, most of the state from the city and points north can expect widespread 2”-2.5” with locally heavier amounts.
IV. An area of low pressure and upper level trough is now shown to “cut off” over the Mid-Atlantic region in the medium range period. This is forecast to dramatically cool the Monday through Thursday time frame (instead of 80s, we’re now talking upper 50s, 60s and low 70s during the period). This is worth keeping an eye on as models can struggle handling these kind of features, but as it stands now, after a brief encounter with warmth this weekend, it doesn’t appear as if we’ll get back to the heat until Memorial Day weekend.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/14/thursday-morning-rambles-storms-accompany-warmth-interesting-twist-to-the-longer-range/
May 13
Off To The Races; Warmth Met With Periodic Storms…
A band of light showers is falling across southern Indiana this morning, but these are expected to diminish before pushing into central Indiana. Most of the remainder of our Wednesday should be rain-free.
The quiet times will give way to a couple of rounds of storms during the overnight and into Friday. Most notably for central Indiana, we think storm chances will increase significantly after midnight and through the predawn hours Thursday. Locally heavy rain and vivid lightning is expected with the stronger storms.
These storms are in association with a warm front lifting north through the state. Speaking of warm, we’ll certainly notice a difference in air masses between today (still relatively cool and dry) and tomorrow (much warmer and more humid). In fact, highs Thursday will flirt with 80° across most of central Indiana.
Once we get rid of the early morning storms, most of the remainder of our Thursday will be dry and feature a return of the sun.
Another round of storms is expected Thursday night into Friday, but most of these will remain well north of our area. A few of these could become severe across northwestern Indiana during this period.
Rain and storm chances will increase once again during the day Friday across central Indiana. A few strong storms will be possible.
As we look ahead to the weekend, it appears we’ll be able to enjoy a mostly dry day Saturday (widely scattered storm possible) before more widespread storms return Sunday. Warm and humid conditions will prevail. A cold front will move through the area early next week which will allow for briefly cooler, drier air to move in during the 1st half of next week. Before that takes place, rainfall amounts between tonight and Sunday are expected to range from 1.5” – 2” with locally heavier totals across central Indiana. Heavier rainfall amounts can be expected across northern Indiana (widespread 3” to 4” amounts during the same period).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/13/off-to-the-races-warmth-met-with-periodic-storms/
May 10
Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…
Weekly Highlights:
I. Additional threat of late season frost/ freeze early in the forecast period.
II. Transition in the pattern midweek signals a significant flip from the record chill across the East to one much more typical for mid-late May. Meanwhile, the West will turn much cooler.
Forecast Period: 05.10.20 through 05.17.20
An area of low pressure and associated cold front will blast across the Ohio Valley during the next 24 hours. Ahead of the front, scattered showers are already entering the state from the west this morning. As we progress into the afternoon, we’ll watch for the potential of a couple skinny lines of thunderstorms try to develop across central and eastern parts of the state. A couple of these storms could quickly pulse to strong – severe levels and pose a threat of damaging straight line winds and hail. Once the front scoots to our east, we’ll notice a much colder (yet again) northwesterly breeze and drier conditions to open the work week. There will be a threat of another frost and freeze by Tuesday morning. Patchy frost is also possible Wednesday morning, especially across east-central parts of the state.
Thereafter, our region will undergo a rather significant flip in the overall pattern. As a result, an airmass much more typical of mid-May will engulf the eastern portion of the country. With the significantly warmer conditions will also come a few rounds of rain and thunder during the mid-late week stretch. Locally heavy rain is likely towards the end of the period including the threat of additional strong thunderstorms in the Thursday-Saturday time frame.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/10/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-6/
May 02
Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…
Weekly Highlights:
I. A cold front will settle south into a warm and at least marginally unstable environment tonight into early Sunday morning. This will result in a rather rapid expansion of thunderstorms across the central Ohio Valley tonight.
II. The next big item has to do with the unseasonably cold airmass that will unload into the eastern half of the country, but this is more of a late Week 1 into Week 2 situation.
Forecast Period: 05.02.20 through 05.09.20
Most of our Saturday will feature dry and pleasant conditions. It’ll be a great day to get caught up on yard work around the house before things take on a stormy turn tonight. A cold front will settle into the briefly warmer and more humid air mass and will ignite thunderstorm development by late evening. A few of these storms will likely become strong to severe late evening into the overnight period, including the potential of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Once the front settles to our south, the convection will also move south and out of our area mid-late Sunday morning. Beforehand, a swath of 1” rains are likely throughout central Indiana with a few locally heavier totals.
There will then be a couple of additional cold fronts to track through the upcoming week: Monday night into Tuesday and again Friday into Saturday. Both fronts should provide additional rain chances during that time frame followed by cooler air.
It’s the weekend front that will usher in more of a winter-like feel including the threat of late season frost/ freeze conditions during the 7-10 day period. We may have not even seen the last of snow for the season…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/02/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-5/
Apr 27
VIDEO: Tuesday Night Storms; Chilly Air Reinforces Itself After Briefly Milder Period…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/27/video-tuesday-night-storms-chilly-air-reinforces-itself-after-briefly-milder-period/
Apr 27
Week-Ahead Outlook; Additional Early-May Chatter…
We may only have a few days left in April, but widespread frost is being reported across north-central into east-central Indiana (yet again) with most across the region in the lower to middle 30s this morning.
Sunshine will dominate to start our Monday before mid and high level clouds increase this afternoon into the evening hours. Eventually these clouds will produce scattered showers by evening (targeting a 6p-7p arrival into central Indiana).
Initially these showers should be very light and scattered in nature, but heavier rain and embedded thunder will develop during the overnight hours.
Showers and embedded thunder will exit Tuesday morning and most of the day will be rain-free, including a return of sunshine. This will help boost high temperatures into the lower 70s Tuesday! Unfortunately, an approaching cold front will lead to a return of storms Tuesday evening and much cooler air by midweek. A few of the storms could reach strong to severe status Tuesday night with the primary concern being damaging wind and large hail.
The cold front will sweep through the area Wednesday followed by a cut off upper low “wobbling” around the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. This will lead to windy, showery, and much cooler conditions for midweek. In fact, temperatures Thursday will likely fall into the 40s during the daytime.
By the time all is said and done, we think most central Indiana communities can expect between 1.25″ and 1.75″ of rain, but there will be some locally heavier amounts in excess of 2″.
Major improvements are ahead as we get set to close the work week. High pressure will briefly build into the area, supplying plentiful sunshine and warmer conditions Friday.
The warmth will persist into the weekend and this morning’s video update dives into the longer range.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/27/week-ahead-outlook-additional-early-may-chatter/
Apr 26
VIDEO: Busy Week Ahead; Discussing The Drivers Behind What Should Be An Overall Chilly 1st Half Of May…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/26/video-busy-week-ahead-discussing-the-drivers-behind-what-should-be-an-overall-chilly-1st-half-of-may/
Apr 25
Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…
Weekly Highlights:
I. Potent area of low pressure will track along the Ohio River, spreading rain across the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast, including higher elevation wet snow.
II. A surface low and associated cold front will sweep into Plains Tuesday and to the eastern seaboard by Thursday. This system will have to be monitored for not only the potentially of locally heavy rain, but the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms on the journey southeast.
Forecast Period: 04.25.20 through 05.02.20
Central Indiana and the Ohio Valley, as a whole, will have to deal with both storm systems highlighted above. While we still believe dry conditions will prevail through a good portion of our Saturday, rain will become more widespread this evening into Sunday morning in response to a surface low moving northeast along the Ohio River. A couple heavier bands of rain may develop across the region tonight into Sunday morning and by the time all is said and done, the southern half of the state (along and south of the I-70 corridor) can expect 0.50″ to 1″ of rain by Sunday afternoon. Further north, amounts between 0.25″ and 0.50″ will be more common. Drier air will build in late Sunday afternoon, along with a cooler northeasterly and northerly flow behind our departing storm system.
Monday morning will open dry, but a weak weather maker will scoot through the state during the afternoon, resulting in scattered showers making a return Monday PM. These will be quick-moving showers and rainfall totals are expected to remain light for those that do see rain.
A much more organized storm system will push southeast Tuesday evening and Wednesday leading to more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity during this time frame. Stronger storms and locally heavy rain will be a good bet with this particular system. Drier, cooler air returns behind this system as we get set to wrap up the work week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/25/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-4/