Category Archives: Severe Weather

Pleasant Weekend Gives Way To A Stormy Week Ahead…

It was a stormy Friday across central Indiana, including hail, damaging winds, and localized flash flooding.  Thankfully, as we open the weekend, weather conditions are much more pleasant.  The surface front that helped trigger the bumpy close to the work week has pushed south and is allowing a much more pleasant (much drier and slightly cooler) air mass to ooze into the region.  With the exception of patchy fog across southern Indiana, skies are mostly sunny.

Patchy fog will burn off by 10a across southern Indiana.
A cooler and less humid feel is greeting us out the door this morning.

Pleasant weather will remain through the majority of Sunday, but we’ll begin to notice an uptick in humidity late in the day.  This is a harbinger of things to come as a true tropical feel lifts back north.  Factor in the increasing moisture levels (it’ll feel oppressive by mid-week) with increasing amounts of energy and instability and big storms will likely result.

A moisture-rich air mass will engulf the region much of the upcoming work week.

The core of the heat will be centered over the western half of the country next week and with a northwest flow aloft, we’ll have to remain on guard for individual disturbances tracking southeast into the Mid West and Ohio Valley.  These will help trigger more widespread storm coverage from time-to-time through the week.  Similar to the storms yesterday, large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding are the biggest concerns with these storm complexes.  7-day rainfall totals through late-week will feature widespread 2″-3″ across central Indiana, including locally heavier amounts of 3″-6″ in spots where storms train.  We’ll have to sure-up specific storm timing as we get closer.

As we look ahead, timing, once again, may be our friend, as modeling currently suggests a drier regime returns by next weekend.

Make it a great Saturday, friends!  More later!

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, AG Report, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Severe Weather, Summer, T-storms

Strong Storm Potential Friday Before A Pleasant Saturday…

Highlights:

  • Strong-to-severe storms Friday
  • Pleasant Saturday
  • Humidity and storms return

Active Friday For Some…Before we can discuss the pleasant and absolutely gorgeous weather conditions that will welcome in the weekend, we have to deal with a potentially “bumpy” few hours Friday afternoon into the early evening across portions of the state.

Central Indiana is under the gun for severe weather Friday.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlines central and southern portions of the state for the threat of severe weather Friday.  Damaging straight line winds are the greatest concern with a line of storms that develop Friday afternoon and push southeast.  Drier weather will quickly build in behind a cold front Friday evening and help usher in a very pleasant open to the weekend.  We’ll certainly notice the lower dew points Saturday and cooler feel with plentiful sunshine.  Enjoy it!

Unfortunately the pleasant and dry conditions won’t last very long, and shower chances return as quickly as Sunday afternoon.  Humidity and a true tropical feel will also engulf the region next week.  This, combined with upper air disturbances moving through the Mid West and Ohio Valley, will aid in daily “splash and dash” thunderstorm coverage.  With a moisture-rich air mass in place, stronger storms will produce torrential downpours.  Overall, the active and unsettled summer that central Indiana has grown accustomed to shows no signs of let-up in the week ahead…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall:  0.00″
  • Rainfall:  2.00″-3.00″ (locally higher totals)
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Heavy Rain, Severe Weather, Summer, T-storms

Another Week Is Upon Us; Looking Ahead…

I.  The new work week will open up with a continuation of unseasonably cool temperatures.  Speaking of temperatures, how nice has it been to have air equivalent of late-September as we get set to wrap up the month of June?!

II:  A weak upper level disturbance will drift overhead Monday afternoon and help spark scattered showers and thunderstorms into the evening hours.  Not everyone will get wet Monday evening, but a couple gusty storms are possible.  Here’s a look at the radar valid at 6p Monday.

III.  After a dry Tuesday and Wednesday, better shower and thunderstorm chances will return to our forecast for late week into next weekend.  Additionally, temperatures and humidity levels will return to closer to seasonal norms.

IV.  An active pattern will remain with us as we progress through the first half of June.  A busy NW flow aloft will likely send multiple storm clusters southeast into the region and we’ll have to be mindful for the potential of some of these storm complexes containing strong-to-severe storms and excessive rainfall.

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Severe Weather, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Another Stormy Day Ahead…

The Storm Prediction Center includes the northwestern portions of the state in a Slight Risk of severe weather later this afternoon and evening.  Given the overall set-up and morning trends from data, it wouldn’t surprise us if this threat expands further southeast in future updates later today from the SPC.

Similar to Tuesday, any storms that develop will be capable of locally heavy rain and flash flooding.  While storms should move in a quicker fashion today, precipitable water values (PWATs) remain downright tropical and will exceed 2″ later this afternoon.

Overall storm coverage should become more widespread as we push into the afternoon and evening hours.  Here’s what the radar may look like during the 4p, 6p, and 10p time frames:

From a severe perspective, the biggest concern is damaging straight line winds with stronger storms.  Remain weather-aware later today, friends!

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Severe Weather, Summer, T-storms