Jul 13
The Storm Prediction Center continues the Moderate Risk of severe weather for our region today. A busy and potentially dangerous day awaits, including multiple rounds of severe weather, flooding,…
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Jul 12
An update this evening shows severe thunderstorms beginning to ignite over the northern Plains. This is all associated with the first in a series of upper disturbances that will move southeast and provide multiple waves of severe weather around our neck of the woods over the upcoming 24-48 hours.
Data this evening really hasn’t changed from what we think will be a potentially dangerous day of severe weather and flooding across central Indiana. It’ll be highly important to remain weather-aware tomorrow and have a means of getting the latest weather information. Please take all warnings seriously. Conditions are highly favorable for numerous damaging wind reports tomorrow and we suggest taking severe thunderstorm warnings as if they were tornado warnings tomorrow because of this.
* Please understand that though some of the data below includes time stamps for reference of what the radar may look like that these storm complexes often take a mind of their own and can accelerate off to the southeast sometimes quicker than what modeled radar may project 12+ hours out. Tomorrow will certainly be a nowcast situation, beginning early in the morning.
With that said, we forecast multiple waves of severe weather tomorrow, beginning in the morning. With high PWAT values, or precipitable water values, thunderstorms will be capable of producing torrential rainfall and flash flooding. It should be noted that with precipitable water values of over 2″ tomorrow (photo below) combined with recent saturated soils, flash flooding is a major concern.
Speaking of flash flooding, latest data suggests rainfall of only 0.8″-1.5″ within a (3) hr. time period will lead to flash flooding.
Again, keeping in mind with the disclaimer prior, here’s what the radar may look like late morning, mid afternoon, and tomorrow night.
In addition to the aforementioned flash flood concerns, we’re also supremely concerned with the potential of damaging straight line winds, particularly with the 3rd complex of storms Monday evening/ night. Earlier in the day, and depending on how the atmosphere “recovers” with the 1st round of storms Monday morning, conditions are favorable for discrete super cells to develop during the mid afternoon (radar image #2 above). While there are questions, early to mid afternoon would be the most likely time frame for potential tornadic activity and large hail.
To close, please ensure you have a means of getting the latest weather information Monday- beginning early in the morning. Go ahead and charge your phones, tablets, and other electronics. We suggest reviewing your severe weather safety plan with your family this evening to provide a peace of mind, and to ensure you and your loved ones are prepared in the event severe weather and flooding develops.
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Jul 12
Highlights:
A very active weather pattern will remain through the short-term. Overnight storms have exited to the southeast and we’re now dealing with dry weather and sunshine. A few storms could bubble up this afternoon in the very humid air mass, but the more widespread showers and thunderstorms will hold off until late tonight as another northwest to southeast moving complex rumbles in. Similar to early this morning, flash flooding will be a concern, along with the potential of damaging wind, and hail.
Perhaps more concerning is what we think will be a secondary thunderstorm complex Monday evening into Monday night. Furthermore, conditions appear to favor the threat of a couple super cells developing in advance of the big storm cluster. These individual super cells will have the potential of producing tornadoes and large hail. We’re then concerned of a widespread damaging wind threat with the large storm complex as it moves southeast. Torrential rains and flash flooding will also be a big concern.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue Tuesday, but there’s a light at the end of this wet tunnel by mid week. We forecast a few days of dry weather in the Wednesday through Saturday time period. As ridging expands, heat and humidity will build in a big time way. For those holding out for true summer heat, next weekend may be your time! That said, the long range pattern still supports a wetter/ cooler than normal regime quickly returning so enjoy!
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2″-3″ with locally heavier totals
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Jul 11
Good morning and happy Saturday, friends! After a prolonged stretch of clouds, rain, drizzle, and fog, today will feature a good deal of sunshine and very pleasant conditions. Unfortunately, the sunshine and pleasant weather won’t last long as storms and severe weather chances ramp up beginning Sunday, and continues through Monday.
A hot dome (high pressure ridge) will be centered over Texas and this will place our immediate region under a rather busy northwest flow. Multiple disturbances (highlighted in blue below) will rotate northwest to southeast around the periphery of the Texas ridge. Each disturbance will be capable of producing heavy rain and thunderstorms, including severe weather.
Sunday morning
Monday morning
Tuesday morning
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the region for a risk of severe weather both Sunday and Monday, and they mention large hail, widespread damaging wind potential, and isolated tornadoes- particularly with Monday’s event.
Day Two Outlook (Sunday)
Day Three Outlook (Monday)
We’ll begin the action late tonight/ Sunday morning (forecast radar below is a time stamp series from 7a to 12p Sunday) with the first in the expected series of thunderstorms rumbling in from the northwest.
Moral of the story? Enjoy today’s sunshine, but get ready for more active weather in the coming days!
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Jul 10
Well, here we go again: cloudy skies, rain showers moving in, and cooler than normal temperatures. Another gloomy and wet day is ahead for central Indiana as a couple waves…
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