An unsettled open to the work week is upon us. Periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected this morning through Wednesday morning. Tuesday will present the most widespread thunderstorms and a few of these could reach strong-to-severe levels. Locally heavy rain can be expected at times. The greatest concerns from a severe perspective center around large hail and damaging straight line winds, but a couple of tornadoes can’t be ruled out.
Most widespread coverage of storms will arrive Tuesday.
Heaviest rain amounts will fall across eastern parts of the state where widespread 1″ to 2″ with locally higher amounts are expected by Wednesday morning. With that said, localized 1″+ amounts will also fall across northwest parts of the state as shown on the latest high resolution NAM.
The frontal boundary will sweep through the state late Tuesday and allow a cooler and drier air mass to filter into the region Wednesday. You’ll notice a true fall feel out the door Wednesday morning- low to mid 50s. Highs Wednesday afternoon will remain in the 60s.
As we type this update, widely scattered thunderstorms are impacting areas from Lafayette to the northeast side of Indianapolis. A more organized complex of thunderstorms is firing to our southwest- from south-central IL to southeastern MO and into AR. This is ahead of the cold front.
Scattered thunderstorms will return as early as Monday afternoon, but more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is expected Tuesday. While not a textbook set-up for widespread severe weather by any means, enough ingredients are in place to at least raise an eyebrow for a few severe storms ahead of the cold frontal passage. Don’t be surprised if the ‘marginal’ risk is upgraded to a ‘slight’ risk for Tuesday in future updates from the Storm Prediction Center.
Once the cold front moves through, a rather abrupt wind shift will drive a much drier and cooler air mass southeast and it’ll feel like early autumn around these parts as we progress through the second half of the work week. Not only will the significant drop in humidity be nice, but some outlying areas away from the city will likely fall into the 40s for overnight lows Thursday and Friday mornings. Highs will only top out in the mid to upper 70s.
Looking longer term, summer isn’t finished just yet. Ridging will return for the Labor Day weekend and support building warmth as we put a wrap on August and open September.
