Category: Severe Weather

VIDEO: Timing Out 2 Rounds Of Strong-Severe Storms; Trending Cooler Into Next Week…

Updated 03.14.24 @ 7:37a We’re tracking 2 rounds of storms that’ll impact central IN today: around lunchtime and again for the evening commute. While both rounds of storms stand a…

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Wednesday Morning Rambles: Talking Storms And A Cooler Pattern To Close Out March…

Updated 03.13.24 @ 5:44a

Most of today will be dry and unseasonably mild. We’ll watch radar trends this evening to see if storms are able to ignite, at least in widely scattered fashion. If this does, indeed, take place it would most likely be after sunset.

A better chance of more widespread showers and thunderstorms awaits Thursday, likely in a couple of different waves between the afternoon and evening hours.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlights far western portions of the state in a Slight risk of severe weather (damaging straight line winds are the biggest concern) Thursday. We’ll watch today’s trends to see if this needs expanded further east for potential severe impacts Thursday.

We’ll transition to a general rain Friday morning before a drier theme arrives for the 1st half of the weekend. By that point, rainfall totals should check-in between 0.50” and 1” for most.

Saturday actually isn’t looking bad with the opportunity of sun and pleasant temperatures ahead of a colder push of air Sunday night. Speaking of that, temperatures should grow cold enough to allow snow to fly across the region by Monday morning. Despite the recent stretch of unseasonably warm temperatures, we can’t rule out heavier snow bursts creating a quick coating to dusting of wet snow on grassy surfaces.

Ah, storms to snow- March at its finest in the Hoosier state.

As we look ahead to the remainder of March, the pattern appears to be in position to lead to a colder than normal regime for a change. It should be noted that we don’t see any significant cold during the late month time frame, rather a setup that should drive a slightly cooler than normal pattern (overall) over the last 10 days, or so of the month.

More on how we think April opens later this week in our long range report.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wednesday-morning-rambles-talking-storms-and-a-cooler-pattern-to-close-out-march/

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 03.02.24 @ 6:38a

An unseasonably mild week is on tap with a couple chances of rain and embedded thunder. Widespread, organized severe weather isn’t anticipated in the upcoming week.

An anomalous upper air pattern will drive an unseasonably mild and at times wet regime, locally.
Temperatures will run well above average in the week ahead across the Central and Eastern portion of the country with unseasonably cold conditions across the West. Plenty of 60s and even 70s are in store for daytime highs in the week ahead.
Greatest deviations from normal in the rainfall department will come along the Southeast and Eastern seaboard. Slightly above normal rains are anticipated through the central Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes region.

Forecast Period: 03.02.24 – 03.09.24

After a quiet weekend (including a progressively brighter sky :-)), unsettled weather will come at us in 2 waves in the week ahead: Monday evening into Tuesday morning and again Friday evening into Saturday. In both cases, we expect widespread precipitation. In the case of our early week system, embedded thunder (non-severe) can’t be ruled out. With our late week storm system, the early call now is for more of an organized general rain to fall. Colder air will return to the region by the latter part of next weekend, potentially including some snow showers by Sunday.

Upcoming Storm Dates to keep an eye on:

  • 03.04 – 03.05
  • 03.08 – 03.10

*10-Day Rainfall Projection: 1.00” to 2.00”

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-46/

Long Range Report: Warm Open To Meteorological Spring; MJO And NAO Impacts Longer Term…

Updated 02.29.24 @ 5:13a

Tomorrow we’ll welcome in meteorological spring and the first couple weeks of March appear to continue the unseasonably warm trend. At times, additional warm records will likely fall.

A ‘mean’ eastern ridge (and strong western trough) will dominate the 1st half of March.
Well above average temperatures are expected through the 1st half of March.

This is strongly correlated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation highly amplified in the classic warm phases this time of year. (You can absolutely say goodbye to any sort of sustained cold prospects this time of year with the MJO in phases 4, 5, and especially 6). Now, down the road, we’ll want to watch and see if we can maintain this amplitude and rumble into the transitional colder Phase 7 before a potential opportunity to see cold grow more impressive should we *finally get into Phase 8 late month. Remember that we made an attempt at that back in mid-February before things instead collapsed into the neutral phase. Moral of the story for folks longing for one more bout of sustained cold prior to the warmer months ahead, “don’t hold your breath.” The trend certainly isn’t your friend.

Back to the present. No matter what the teleconnections say, an amplified MJO will always win out. And the current MJO forecast to roll through the phases listed above screams that our recent warm times will “keep on keepin’ on” as we navigate the 1st half of March.

MJO forecast through March 13th

The Phase 5 and Phase 6 composite analogs at 500mb (upper air pattern) for an El Niño March:

What this should also result in is an active first half of the month, including above normal rainfall and likely at least another early season strong to severe weather event before we get to mid month.

It’s a classic pattern that should feature low pressure systems ejecting out of the Southwest and South-central into the Plains and western Great Lakes region. That puts our neck of the woods on the warm/ wet (and at times stormy) side of the equation.

As we move into late-March and early April, we’ll have our eyes focused on the MJO and whether or not we can, indeed, get into those traditionally colder phases. Stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-report-warm-open-to-meteorological-spring-mjo-and-nao-impacts-longer-term/

VIDEO: Sharply Colder Today Before A Quick Warm-Up; No Let Up To The Warm Pattern Down The Road…

Updated 02.28.24 @ 7:44a Today will serve as a reminder we are still in winter, after all, but another quick warm-up will get underway as we head through the weekend…

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