Category: Severe Weather

Short-Term Severe Weather Discussion…

Updated 08.06.23 @ 9:54a

Despite a few light morning showers, our Sunday will feature dry conditions through the remainder of the daylight hours along with increasing sunshine. The disturbance responsible for Saturday’s severe weather and unsettled conditions is on the way east while we wait a new potent disturbance on deck from the west. Unfortunately, this second disturbance has eyes set on our region tonight and will pose a dangerous overnight severe weather risk.

All modes of severe weather will be possible, including damaging winds, large hail, and a couple of quick spin-up tornadoes. It wouldn’t surprise me if a portion of the current ‘Slight Risk’ area is upgraded to an ‘Enhanced Risk’ across southern IN in future SPC (Storm Prediction Center) updates this afternoon.

From a timing standpoint, storms should approach western Indiana towards 10p, or so and then continue to advance east, southeast into the late evening and overnight hours.

Discrete cells may try and organize into more of a congealed line as we push closer towards midnight and, as such, the threat of a damaging wind event will become the eventual primary concern as we move through the early Monday morning hours across the southern half of Indiana.

Before heading to bed this evening, be sure to have a means of getting the latest warning information as there will likely be multiple warnings issued late this evening and into the early portion of the overnight.

Quieter (albeit briefly) weather conditions will return as we move through the first couple days of the new work week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/06/short-term-severe-weather-discussion/

Multiple Rounds Of Strong-Severe Storms This Weekend; Autumn Rambles…

Updated 08.05.23 @ 10:20a

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VIDEO: Tracking A Sunday Severe Weather Threat; Mid-Late August Pattern Thoughts…

Updated 08.04.23 @ 7:55a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/04/video-tracking-a-sunday-severe-weather-threat-mid-late-august-pattern-thoughts/

Heat Takes A Back Seat To An Unseasonably Cool Open To August; Strong Storms In Between The Transition…

Updated 07.28.23 @ 8a

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VIDEO: Hot And Humid With A Few Storms To Close The Week; Cooler Times Await To Open The New Week…

Updated 07.27.23 @ 7:20a

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VIDEO: Analyzing Tonight’s Severe Threat; Heat Levels Back Off Over The Weekend…

Updated 07.26.23 @ 7:15a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/26/video-analyzing-tonights-severe-threat-heat-levels-back-off-over-the-weekend/

Severe Threat Wednesday; What The Pattern Drivers Have To Say About Longevity Of Building Heat…

Updated 07.25.23 @ 5:13a

We’re running slightly cooler than normal, month-to-date, across central Indiana. (0.5° below normal at IND). Above normal temperatures have ruled the day along the coasts with the cooler anomalies in the Plains and into the western portions of the Ohio Valley.

A big flip in this regime will take place as we push through the upcoming work week. Note the expanding heat in areas where it’s been cool so far this month.

As the hot dome nudges east, central Indiana will make up for lost ground in the 90° department. In fact, the hottest and most humid air of the season will take up shop mid and late week. Low-mid 90s with overnight lows not falling below the oppressive 70° mark can be expected.

That said, we remain stubborn in believing this will be a transitional heat wave. The EPO (East Pacific Oscillation) and PNA (Pacific North America pattern) are both heading in directions that should force the ridge (hot dome) west in the Week 2 time period. This will open the door for cooler and more active weather to return, locally. We’ll likely have to deal with multiple strong-severe storm complexes tracking in northwest to southeast fashion into early August. Speaking of severe weather, all of the region is under fire for a couple rounds of storms Wednesday. Morning convection will likely remain below severe levels but a potent complex of storms is expected to redevelop Wednesday afternoon and evening. Given the ingredients and severe weather parameters in play Wednesday, all modes of severe weather will be possible, including the potential of a couple strong tornadoes. Needless to say, it’ll be a day to remain weather-aware.

In closing, when looking at the long range pattern, the wild card has to do with the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation). Should this become more amplified, then the shift in the regime will be more dramatic. As it is, we’re far from ready to make a call on this becoming more amplified (a bigger driver in the pattern transition). The thought this could be heading into Phase 6 is less of a likely situation now compared to a few days ago, but we’ll continue to closely monitor the progression all the same. The combination of the EPO/ PNA trends will serve as the baseline in building our longer range forecast for now.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/25/what-the-pattern-drivers-have-to-say-about-longevity-of-building-heat/

Severe Storms This Evening With Large Hail Potential; Gorgeous Close To The Work Week…

Updated 07.20.23 @ 8:07a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/20/severe-storms-this-evening-with-large-hail-potential-gorgeous-close-to-the-work-week/

VIDEO: Beautiful Day Ahead Of Another Round Of Severe Storms Thursday Evening…

Updated 07.19.23 @ 8:45a

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VIDEO: Brief Window To Catch Our Breath Before Active Times Return…

Updated 07.18.23 @ 7:27a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/18/video-brief-window-to-catch-our-breath-before-active-times-return/

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