Category: Rain

Moderating Weekend Temperatures…

Screen Shot 2015-02-06 at 7.33.19 AMSpring Fever Anyone?! Hearing lots of rumbles of folks craving spring, as is usually the case around these parts come early February.  We still have more winter to go, but this weekend may lead to a surge in spring fever as temperatures moderate.  We may have to deal with more clouds than we’d like, but temperatures will warm to well above normal levels- especially Sunday.  We’ll introduce a couple of showers into the mix for the second half of the weekend, but these won’t be a big deal.

Slightly colder air moves in early next week, but it’s really not until after a weak disturbance passes Wednesday that the true arctic plunge will take place.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.20″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Trace

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/moderating-weekend-temperatures/

Cold Start To The Work Week; Watching Wednesday…

Screen Shot 2015-02-02 at 7.46.45 AMBundle Up…Snow showers and gusty winds are combining with refreezing of snow and moisture on roadways to create slick travel this Monday morning.  Leave extra time on your way to work and school this morning and travel safely.  Additionally, gusty northwest winds are pushing wind chill values into the subzero ranks.  As we progress through the day we should see increasing sunshine, but it’ll remain frigid.

Our next storm system of interest arrives by the middle of the week.  Forecast models differ on the timing and amount of moisture with this next storm, but there’s the chance of accumulating snow arriving Wednesday.  This would be in advance of a quick-hitting pop of arctic air.  We’ll keep a close eye on things.

The active pattern remains into the upcoming weekend as increasing clouds give way to showers Saturday and a transition to more a of wintry mix Sunday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1″ – 2″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.20″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/cold-start-to-the-work-week-watching-wednesday/

Period Of Snow Moving In…

As mentioned below, bust potential was/ is high with today’s forecast.  The further north trends in the NAM and GFS will ultimately trump the normally reliable Canadian and European solutions.  As such, slushy snowfall accumulations will be light (1″-2″) for the city, itself, increasing to between 2″-5″ for northern Indianapolis suburbs (Zionsville, Carmel, Westfield, Noblesville, etc.).  Double digit totals will fall across the northern third of the state.

For the most part, snowfall accumulations will come from this area of precipitation moving through the region.

Screen Shot 2015-02-01 at 9.30.06 AM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Heavy wet snow will likely fall for a period of time, especially from northern portions of Indianapolis and points north late morning into the early afternoon.

hires_ref_indy_6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Temperatures will then likely creep up a few degrees through the mid afternoon hours before falling this evening.  Snow will mix with, or change to, snow across central regions this afternoon with the northward track of the low.  Note the stark temperature contrast across the region this evening.

hrrr_t2m_indy_16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The week will get off to a cold start as highs Monday only top out in the lower 20s.  Enjoy your Super Bowl Sunday and keep the reports coming!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/period-of-snow-moving-in/

Crippling Snow Storm For Some; Just Wet For Others.

An incredibly difficult and challenging forecast is in store for central Indiana over the course of the next 24-36 hours.  I want to get out front with this right from the get go: bust potential is high with this type set-up, as a jog 10-20 miles north or south of the surface low will mean the difference between half a foot of snow and plain cold rain.  As it stands now, and after careful consideration of every piece of data available, here’s our updated snowfall map:

SnowfallMap2115V2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I still am not sure any one piece of data is handling the interaction between the arctic high to the north and the developing low to our southwest “perfectly.”  As such, additional fine tuning will have to take place tonight.  That arctic high is powerful at nearly 1045mb.  From a meteorological standpoint, it’ll be a fascinating battle watching the fight play out.

As you can see, we’re going to be looking at a very tight thermal gradient and it, unfortunately, appears to set itself up directly over the I-70 corridor.  Precipitation type and amounts are the biggest challenge within the I-70 corridor.  Further north, confidence increases rather significantly for a crippling snow storm.  For central Indiana, this will be a very wet and heavy snow event before ending as a drier, powdery snow on the back end.  As winds increase Sunday afternoon/ evening, the heavy “paste” like snow won’t blow around as easily as it would if it was drier.  Further north the snow consistency will be drier and blowing and drifting will be severe (in the 8″-12″+ zone).

In the shorter-term, rain and a wintry mix will arrive into the region as early as early as 6-7 o’clock.

Stay tuned.  Another post will hit here late tonight (midnight-ish).  In the meantime, we’ll keep our thoughts coming at @indywx through the afternoon.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/crippling-snow-storm-for-some-just-wet-for-others/

Saturday Morning Rambles

Overnight model data remains very much out of agreement with one another concerning Sunday. The struggle continues trying to figure out the precise track of the low and the influence…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/saturday-morning-rambles-4/