Category Archives: Rain

Active Week Of Weather Ends Wintry…

Highlights:

  • Pleasant close to the weekend
  • Rainy open to the work week
  • Turning colder with rain and snow late week

Sunshine Gives Way To Rain…The weekend will end on a pleasant note as weak high pressure provides a variably cloudy sky today.  That early-April sunshine will help temperatures top out in the lower 60s this afternoon.

Clouds will increase tonight and showers will develop during the overnight period.  We’ll add a little instability to the mix by afternoon and introduce thunderstorms into the forecast Monday afternoon and evening.  This storm system will then exit just as quickly as it arrives Monday night and help set up a pleasant Tuesday.

Eyes will then shift to a stronger storm system that will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, with locally heavy rain a good bet.  As the storm wraps up over the Great Lakes region late week, colder air will spill into the state on gusty northwesterly winds.  Backlash, wind-whipped, rain showers will transition to wet snow showers Thursday into Friday as colder air settles in.  The good news here is that the weekend will get off to a nice start…after a cold beginning Saturday morning.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 2.00″ 2.50″ with locally heavier totals
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Rain, snow, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy

Active Times In The Forecast Office…

Highlights:

  • Wet, chilly close to the work week
  • Dry weekend
  • Couple storms and turning colder late next week

Busy Weather Pattern Continues…An area of low pressure is swirling overhead this morning and will help promote periods of showers into the early afternoon before drier air begins to push in.  Perhaps the bigger story will be falling daytime temperatures.  By the evening rush, most neighborhoods should be deep into the 40s with a gusty northerly breeze at times.

We still forecast a dry weekend as high pressure builds in.  Early fog and clouds will be slow to give way to sunshine Saturday, but by afternoon and evening we should see some breaks in the cloud cover.  We’ll label Saturday as “mostly cloudy” before more in the way of sunshine works in for the second half of the weekend.

The dry times won’t last, unfortunately, and another storm system promises showers and thunderstorms as early as Monday.  This will then be followed by a bigger storm the middle of the week that will, once again, lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms.  The other point we want to drive home for late next week will be an increasingly chilly regime.  Temperatures will fall Thursday and even though it’s beyond the current forecast period, sub-freezing lows are a good bet next weekend.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 2.00″ – 2.50″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy

Thursday Morning Rambles…

1.)  Morning showers and thunderstorms continue to impact north-central Indiana this morning and given the look to downstream trends on radar and satellite, it would seem like it’s going to be tough to get into any sort of significant sunshine this afternoon. This is great news as it’ll limit severe potential.  That said, we still can’t rule out a severe thunderstorm this evening with large hail and damaging straight line winds of greatest concern.  The updated (9a eastern) outlook from the Storm Prediction Center continues the “enhanced risk” for the southern half of Indiana.

2.)  We bracket the hours of 2p-8p (couple hours earlier from yesterday’s thinking) as the period of potential most widespread strong to severe thunderstorms across central Indiana, and the HRRR forecast radar shows what the radar may look like this evening. Have a means of getting the latest warnings.

3.)  Scattered showers will continue into Friday morning before drier air arrives during the evening hours.

4.)  This drier trend Friday PM is one that will continue into the weekend.  High pressure will supply mostly dry weather through the entire weekend (small shower chances return Sunday evening), including sunshine.

5.)  Another active period of weather awaits next week, including multiple rain chances early and late week.  The latter storm looks to be the bigger event with heavy rain and thunderstorm potential Wednesday into Thursday.  7-day rain numbers check in between 1.5″-2″ with locally heavier amounts.

6.)  The story becomes a chilly one next weekend, and models suggest central Indiana may be dealing with frost and freeze conditions by next Saturday or Sunday morning.

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Hail, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy

Wet Close To The Work Week, But A Dry Weekend Is Ahead…

Highlights:

  • Next weather maker arrives to close the work week
  • Dry weekend coming
  • Next storm system on deck

Rain Gear Needed To Close The Work Week…Wednesday will dawn with low clouds and areas of fog in spots, but that should diminish and possibly give way to a couple looks of the sunshine before our next storm system quickly approaches.  If we see any sun Wednesday it won’t last long, as clouds will once again be on the increase Wednesday afternoon with a scattered shower possible.  Rain coverage will become more widespread Thursday, and we’ll introduce a rumble of thunder into the forecast Thursday afternoon/ evening.  Showers will continue Friday before scattering Friday afternoon.

The decreasing Friday afternoon rain chances signals a drier change that we’ll enjoy for the weekend (perfect timing)!  High pressure will build into the region and support dry conditions.  The temperature forecast is a bit tricky Saturday.  We’re banking on a mostly cloudy sky that would limit highs into the middle 50s.  Should we see more in the way of sunshine than currently expected, highs would zoom close to 60° Saturday.  Dry conditions remain Sunday.

Our next storm system will result in increasing rain and storm coverage Monday afternoon, continuing into the day on Tuesday.  If we look just beyond the forecast period, a shot of unseasonably cold air could send temperatures to sub-freezing levels by the latter parts of next week…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall:  1.00″ – 1.50″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Rain, T-storms

Looking Ahead Into Early April…

Month-to-date, Indianapolis is running near seasonal norms from a temperature standpoint (0.50° above normal).  Chill has dominated the northern tier and eastern third of the country.

Precipitation is running above normal, locally, to the tune of nearly 1″ month-to-date.  Heaviest rains have fallen across southeastern Indiana over the past (30) days.

A look at precipitation anomalies across the mid west, month-to-date:

As we progress through the upcoming (10) days, a transient weather pattern will persist.  This will keep forecasters busy, but it should also be stressed it’s not all a “doom and gloom” type pattern, either.  There will be plenty of dry time over the upcoming period, including drier conditions building in tomorrow (Tuesday) into a good chunk of Wednesday.

By Wednesday night/ Thursday morning, shower chances will begin to increase and that will set the stage for a wet close to the work week as numerous showers and embedded thunder move across the region Thursday into Friday.  This is courtesy of a storm system “bowling” through to our south.  This won’t be a severe weather maker for our neck of the woods, but will serve to create a rather damp and gloomy regime during the aforementioned period.

However, timing is our friend this go around as upper ridging develops over the upcoming weekend.  Not only will we dry out, but we’ll also enjoy increasing sunshine as the weekend progresses.

That said, looking further down the pipe line, another (potentially more significant) storm system looms during the 8-10 day period.  This would fall in the April 3rd-4th time frame.  From this distance, models are bullish on hefty rainfall totals with this storm system and we’ll keep a close eye on things as time draws closer.

Speaking of April, our overall thoughts for the fourth month of the year (where does time go?) would imply a warmer than average month and active (wetter than average).  Relative to average, we feel we still may have some chill to traverse early month, but there’s also some indication we could bust into an early summer-like feel mid and late month.  With the mean trough position west and ridging east, we’ll have to also be mindful for the potential of an active severe weather month- especially mid and late month.  Overall, the CanSIPS idea below is one we would agree with from a mean 500mb perspective.

No Comments 10-day, AG Report, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, Spring, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm