Category: Rain

Dec 09

Buckle Up; Active Winter Pattern Is Only Beginning…

screen-shot-2016-12-09-at-7-32-12-amHighlights:

  • Very cold with snow showers diminishing
  • Messy second half of the weekend
  • Awaiting our next storm mid week
  • Frigid air awaits

Wintry Hits Are Lining Up…Fresh arctic air combined with even the slightest bit of upper energy can produce an overachieving snow shower event. As was the case overnight with many neighborhoods through central IN accumulating a coating to around 1″ of snow.  Take it slow this morning and leave extra time to reach your destination.  Bitterly cold air continues to wrap up the work week and head into the weekend (keep in mind our average high and low are in the lower 40s and middle 20s, respectfully).  As we look through the upcoming 7-day period, temperatures will run significantly below average throughout.

Our next storm system is dialed up this weekend.  Clouds will increase as we progress through the second half of the day Saturday and light snow will develop late Saturday night into Sunday morning.  As the area of low pressure tracks from northern MO into the Great Lakes, we’ll get into a milder southerly flow Sunday.  This will help bring in enough warm air to transition snow to rain during the day Sunday.  Beforehand, a light accumulation of snow is possible in and around Indianapolis (more on potential amounts this time tomorrow).  Heavier snow will pile up across northern Indiana.  Precipitation should shut off rather quickly Sunday night and we’ll be in between systems Monday.

By Tuesday, our attention will turn northwest as we await the arrival of another arctic cold front.  As the front moves in, modeling suggests multiple waves of energy move along the boundary, throwing moisture into the cold air and creating a rather snowy scenario as we progress through mid week.  We need to get through the weekend first, but this could also be an impactful event.  Very windy and frigid conditions move in Wednesday into Thursday, including sub-zero wind chills.  Additional snow chances await next weekend…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 2″- 5″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/buckle-up-active-winter-pattern-is-only-beginning/

Dec 05

Arctic Air Inbound…

screen-shot-2016-12-05-at-11-19-01-pmHighlights:

  • Morning showers
  • Snow showers late tomorrow night
  • Arctic air arrives
  • Weekend storm system

Find That Heavier Winter Gear…Our next area of low pressure will push northeast between now (north-central Gulf Coast) and Tuesday night (central Appalachians).  Most of the widespread rain will fall across southeast IN this go around, but enough moisture will spread west to result in scattered to numerous showers Tuesday morning.  With temperatures in the lower to middle 30s, don’t be surprised if a sleet pellet or snow flake mix in at times.  All in all, expect another “raw” day.  Drier times will await for the evening rush home.

Wednesday will feature mostly dry conditions, but the arctic hounds will be howling to our northwest.  Snow showers will precede this arctic blast Wednesday night and Thursday morning and may be enough to accumulate for some.  While models remain drier than we’d expect (given the overall set-up), we may “eek” out just enough moisture to coat the ground up for some. Thursday will be a frigid day, including wind chills in the single digits.  Heavier winter gear will be required to wrap up the work week.

The weekend features more “fun and games” as an area of low pressure attacks stale cold air left over from the late week arctic push.  Is the cold air deep enough to create wintry problems or does the southerly flow help scour out the chill and lead to more of a liquid event.  Stay tuned.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/arctic-air-inbound/

Dec 04

Active Wintry Pattern Is Here…

If you’re a fan of cold weather, including being on the field to “cash-in” on multiple winter storm threats, this is a pattern for you.  In all honesty, it’s tough to ask for a better pattern to yield such things.  With that said, each respected storm threat will have its’ own set of challenges that will have to be dealt with.  While we’re confident on IND being above normal in the snow department for the month of December by the 20th, it’s impossible to put numbers (from an accumulation perspective) on specific storm systems from this distance.  With that said, please know that the pattern is one that will have multiple impactful winter events lining up behind one another and it’ll be important to keep updated with forecasts as we progress through the next few weeks.  Needless to say, there will be plenty of opportunities to get those favorite photos with Christmas lights/ decor in the snow this season!

We’re tracking (3) winter systems over the upcoming week:

1.)  Today:  Dry air initially made it difficult for precipitation to make it to the surface this morning.  Heavier precipitation rates will arrive after lunch and fall for a few hours (between 1p-6p for most of central IN).  This will fall as mostly a cold rain from Indy and points south.  Further north, including north-central IN, this will fall as a rain-snow mix (snow should become the predominant form of precipitation shortly after starting.  Across northern portions of the state, this will be mostly snow and we note modeling trending colder with recent runs.  With heavier snowfall rates this afternoon/ evening, travel may become dicey across northern IN and wet snow accumulations of 2″-4″.  A coating to less than 1″ of snow is possible as far south as the northern suburbs of Indy.  The following time stamps can give you an idea what the radar may look like this afternoon into the evening hours.

1p forecast radar

1p forecast radar

4p forecast radar

4p forecast radar

6p forecast radar

6p forecast radar

Temperatures tonight will fall below freezing for most (upper 20s to around 30) and with the lingering moisture on area roadways and sidewalks, a couple slick spots could develop here and there so be mindful.  We don’t anticipate major issues, however.

2.)  Wednesday night-Thursday:  An arctic front will blow into town mid week and we remain bullish on the idea a wave of low pressure delivers a shot of accumulating snow as the arctic plunge moves in.  As we’ve relayed over the past few days, model data is far from being in agreement on this idea, but when one looks at the overall pattern, it’s easy to see how there should be more reflection of low pressure moving along the pressing arctic boundary.  These can be tricky and many times modeling is “forced” to play catch-up at last minute.  For now, we continue with the idea of accumulating snow across central IN in the Wednesday night-Thursday time frame ahead of the coldest air so far this season.  Temperatures will fall to between 10-15 degrees for lows by late week, including single digit ‘chills.

Arctic waves can be tricky in the medium range and must be watched closely.

Arctic waves can be tricky in the medium range and must be watched closely.

3.)  Saturday-Sunday:  Our next wintry threat appears to roll into town next weekend.  Similar to mid week, this, too, could be an accumulating event.  It’s far too soon to get specific on timing, snowfall amounts, etc., but just know we’re keeping a close eye on next weekend for potentially more of a widespread wintry event and will sure-up details as we progress deeper into the week.

GFS ensemble members show the snowy pattern ahead over the upcoming week.

GFS ensemble members show the snowy pattern ahead over the upcoming week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/active-wintry-pattern-is-here/

Dec 03

Sunday Mix; Heavier Winter Gear Needed Next Week…

screen-shot-2016-12-03-at-9-48-58-amHighlights:

  • Sunday mix
  • Wet Tuesday
  • Midweek snow and turning bitter

Winter Awaits…Today is chilly and dry. Thankfully, we’ll finally get to see the sun.  Enjoy it into the afternoon as clouds will quickly increase yet again later in the day as our next storm system approaches.

Speaking of that next system, moisture will spread into the chilly air mass Sunday morning.  Across central IN, this will fall as a wintry mix of light snow and chilly light rain.  Further north, this will be a mostly snow event, including a light accumulation possible (slushy amounts under 1″) across far northern portions of the state.  All-in-all, this won’t be a big deal.

We’ll have a brief break in between systems Monday before rain returns at night.  This is courtesy of another wave of low pressure lifting out of the northwest Gulf of Mexico, tracking northeast through the TN Valley and into southeastern Ohio.  Central Indiana snow lovers know that’s a classic track for snow around these parts this time of year.  We’ll keep an eye on it, but as of now, the air mass doesn’t look cold enough (yet).

A much colder pattern looms by the middle of next week.  Along with the arrival of the arctic air mass, we also favor a wave of low pressure delivering accumulating snow prospects Wednesday night into Thursday.  (That high Thursday will come at midnight with temperatures crashing through the day).  We’ll turn bitterly cold to close the week, including wind chills falling to around zero.

This is only the beginning of a very cold and wintry period.  There are plenty of “fun and games” awaiting as we rumble through the next couple weeks…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-mix-heavier-winter-gear-needed-next-week/

Dec 02

VIDEO: A Cold, Wintry Pattern Is Upon Us…

 

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-a-cold-wintry-pattern-is-upon-us/