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Category: Rain
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-rambling-around-on-a-wednesday-evening/
Dec 19
Frigid Open To The Week; Wet Christmas?
Highlights:
- Bitterly cold to open the week
- Mid week snow chances
- Wet Christmas
Bundle Up…The frigid theme of December 2016 continues as overnight lows dipped to between 3 and 6 below zero for most central IN reporting sites. By the way, IND is running (6) degrees below average, month-to-date. Needless to say, December 2016 (top) is nothing like December 2015 (bottom).
Though still chilly, temperatures will moderate into mid week before our next system rolls in. Clouds will increase Wednesday and give way to a chance of snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning as upper level energy rotates overhead. Models likely will have to play “catch up” again with this mid week system and we’ll keep a close eye on data.
As we look at Christmas, itself, a warmer regime looks to build in, courtesy of a southwest flow. This is in response to the southeast ridge flexing it’s muscle and driving a rather intense storm system northwest through the Plains states. Blizzard conditions will likely result northwest of the low track while showers and thunderstorms develop in the warm sector, including the MS Valley into the Ohio Valley. We’ll introduce a chance of thunderstorms into our Christmas Day forecast, as well.
Longer-term, a rather significant pattern shift will continue to close the month of December into early January and this will drive a shift from the bitterly cold conditions to much milder times as we open 2017. Winter fans, have no fear, the seeds are already being planted for a return to frigid and active times just beyond the new year…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: Dusting – 1″
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/frigid-open-to-the-week-wet-christmas/
Dec 15
Active Winter Pattern Rumbles Along…
Highlights:
- Busy weather weekend
- Fresh shot of bitterly cold air
- Christmas week snow chances
Buckle Up For A Busy Winter Pattern…Thursday featured the coldest December 15th high (13 degrees) in a whopping 27 years. Talk about impressive. This was good for an amazing 26 degrees below average. Let that sink in…
We’ll wrap up the work week and head into the busy weekend before Christmas with a new round of challenges. A couple of warm fronts will lift north through central IN Friday. Snow showers may accompany the first warm front early Friday before the second warm front lifts north Friday night. This will result in more widespread wintry precipitation, likely to begin as a period of light snow before a quick transition to sleet and freezing drizzle during the overnight. Temperatures will warm overnight Friday and precipitation will change to light rain Saturday morning. That’s when our attention turns to the first of two cold fronts that will sweep through the state. The first cold front will lead to a quick changeover to sleet and snow Saturday evening (thinking between 6p-8p as of now). As a secondary wave of moisture moves northeast along the boundary, expect a light accumulation of snow Saturday night. The second cold front (arctic) will blow through late Saturday night and early Sunday morning and lead to a frigid Sunday. That 25 degree high you see Sunday will come at midnight as temperatures crash through the day. Add in a stiff northwest wind and wind chill values will fall below zero (yet again) in the Sunday-Monday time frame.
We’ll briefly calm things down during the early Christmas week period and remain cold. Our next storm system is slated for a mid week arrival and could deliver a round of accumulating snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning. More on that after this weekend system.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 2″ – 4″
- Rainfall: 0.20″ – 0.40″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/active-winter-pattern-rumbles-along/
Dec 14
“Not Fit For Man Nor Beast;” Winter Issues This Weekend…
Highlights:
- Bitter feel
- Weekend storm
- Reinforcing arctic air to open Christmas week
Heavy Winter Gear Required…An arctic cold front slammed into central IN Wednesday evening with plummeting temperatures, strong and gusty (40 MPH) winds, blowing snow, and just a downright “rude” feel. Those bitter conditions will remain through the close of the work week, including dangerous wind chills Thursday. In fact, we still expect wind chills to fall into the 10-20 degree below zero range through the morning, and remain below zero most of the day.
We’ll flip the page and turn our attention to our next storm system as we rumble into the weekend. Clouds will increase Friday and moisture will begin to override the cold air locked in place at the surface by the evening and nighttime. With sub-freezing air still present, this moisture will likely fall as a combination of sleet and freezing rain across central Indiana Friday night. Eventually, temperatures will warm (briefly) above freezing Saturday morning and allow precipitation to transition to light rain. Before that takes place, slick road conditions could develop Friday night from the sleet/ freezing rain mixture. Needless to say, we’ll keep a close eye on the latest data as it comes in.
Almost as fast as we go above freezing Saturday, temperatures will begin to fall once again during the afternoon and evening as heavy, dense, arctic air “oozes” southeast. As this is happening, a second wave of moisture will ride northeast along the pressing arctic cold front. We expect precipitation to break out yet again Saturday evening and night, and fall as a wintry mix before ending as snow. (Additional light ice and snow accumulation potential).
Temperatures will fall through the day Sunday along with strong and gusty NW winds. Wind chills will once again fall below zero Sunday evening into Monday morning…
While the frigid conditions will “relax” as we go into the middle of Christmas week, we have an eyebrow raised for the potential of “fun and games” just beyond the current 7-day period. Far too early for specifics, but the potential of wintry prospects around Christmas are alive and kicking…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″
- Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/not-fit-for-man-nor-beast-winter-issues-this-weekend/
Dec 14
Wednesday Morning Weather Rambles…
1.) Talk about number-busting cold. With a fresh snowpack and clear skies overnight, temperatures plummeted (even colder than some high resolution data suggested yesterday evening). Officially, it’s the coldest December morning in Indianapolis since Christmas Eve 2013. We note even a few communities below zero (talking about you Crawfordsville, Zionsville, and Greenfield).
Even colder air rushes in tonight behind a secondary arctic cold front. Expect an increase in cloudiness, scattered snow flurries, and strengthening NW winds by late afternoon and early evening. As the reinforcing bitter air pours into the region, wind chill values will fall to 10-20 below zero tonight into Thursday morning. That’s dangerous stuff, friends, and requires limited time outdoors. The National Weather Service has issued a *Wind Chill Advisory* 10p this evening until 11a Thursday.
2.) Our next storm will approach Friday evening. Clouds will increase and thicken as the day gives way to evening and a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will overspread central IN Friday night. With snow on the ground and the recent bitter blast, we have concerns the cold air won’t be “dislodged” as quickly as last weekend. The end result may be a period of accumulating freezing rain/ sleet Friday night into early Saturday morning. We’ll keep a close eye on things.
Regardless, icy precipitation will transition to rain during the day Saturday as temperatures briefly surge above freezing. “Brief” is the key word there as temperatures plummet Saturday night, courtesy of fresh arctic air oozing back in. A secondary wave of moisture may result in additional wintry issues Saturday night. Additionally, with sharply colder air returning, “flash freeze” concerns loom Saturday night, as well.
3.) Another “lobe” of arctic air will plunge into the area Saturday night and help set-up a frigid close to the weekend. We’ll have to be on sub-zero watch again.
4.) Our attention then shifts to what may very well be an active Christmas week in the weather department. We continue to think the frigid times of this week will relax. That said, it’ll remain cold enough with a favorable storm track to result in wintry issues as Christmas nears. Far too early for specifics with this 10+ days out, but keep it in the back of your mind that the weather pattern continues to look active and at least present a threat of wintry precipitation at times Christmas week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wednesday-morning-weather-rambles-2/