Category: Rain

Mar 12

Work Week Opens Snowy…

Highlights:

  • Unseasonably cold
  • Snowy Monday
  • Cold week ahead

Sunny, But Cold…We may have sprung forward overnight, but Mother Nature can have a mind of her own.  Despite gaining an extra hour of daylight in the evening, temperatures will feel more like the dead of winter this week.  With the cold air comes snow chances, as well…

A frigid start to the day is at least accompanied by wall-to-wall sunshine, however, clouds will increase as we progress through the afternoon and evening hours.  Eventually those clouds will lower and thicken and give way to snow overspreading the state from west to east during the predawn hours Monday.  With marginally cold temperatures during the daytime Monday, we don’t anticipate big travel problems for most of central Indiana.  That said, if your travels take you north, prepare for slick travel as a “plowable” snow falls for our neighbors across northern Indiana.  As it stands now, we forecast generally an inch, or less, for the city, itself, Monday morning before melting occurs during the daytime.  As colder air pours into the state Monday evening, an additional dusting to coating is possible in spots through central Indiana as scattered snow showers and heavier bursts continue into midweek.  As mentioned, further north, several inches of snow (2″-5″) will fall for places like Lafayette, Kokomo, Marion and points north.  Perhaps an even bigger story will be the cold that follows the early-week snow.  Lows will fall into the middle teens for many central Indiana neighborhoods Wednesday and Thursday morning.

Looking ahead, confidence remains low in the late week forecast.  That fast-moving northwest flow aloft can (and will) wreck havoc on model solutions and fine tuning will be required as we progress through the week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.40″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/work-week-opens-snowy/

Mar 11

Winter Finally Shows Up…

Highlights:

  • Much colder than average
  • Snow prospects to open the week
  • Busy pattern continues

Locked In A Cold Pattern…The stretch of spring-like, unseasonably warm, conditions we enjoyed through most of February and to open March will be all but a distant memory once to this time next week.  A major reversal to a colder than normal pattern is now with us and will feature lows into the teens on a few nights over the upcoming week.

Additionally, we continue to highlight the fast-moving northwest flow aloft.  This kind of regime wrecks havoc on forecast models and, accordingly, we have lower than normal confidence in the specifics late in the work week.  Stay tuned.

Before we get to late week, we have a disturbance (that will eventually help feed a blockbuster Nor Easter) that will deliver snow as we open up the work week.  This time of year, snow intensity and time of day mean a world of difference between an accumulating event, or not.  Snow should overspread central Indiana before sunrise Monday and will likely accumulate before the higher sun angle takes over and lighter snowfall rates result in a lack of daytime accumulation.  As reinforcing cold air filters in Monday night, additional light accumulation will be possible in scattered heavier snow showers that will continue into Tuesday.  All-in-all, this doesn’t appear to be a huge event, but a few slick spots will be possible Monday morning before that higher March sun angle gets to work.  We’ll keep a close eye on things.

Moving forward, we’re confident on the overall colder than normal pattern that will continue into Saint Patrick’s Day, but, as mentioned above, fine tuning will be required with the potential of a late week storm system to contend with.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/winter-finally-shows-up/

Mar 09

Enjoy Today; Winter Returns…

Highlights:

  • Spring-like feel today
  • Much colder pattern developing
  • Accumulating snow early next week?

Colder Pattern Taking Hold…The day is dawning bright and sunshine will be with us through the majority of the day, along with pleasant, spring-like temperatures.  Find a way to get out and enjoy it!  Unfortunately, the pleasant weather will end tonight.

Clouds will increase late in the day and give way to showers during the nighttime period.  A cold front will press south and pull much colder air into the region as we wrap up the work week and head into the weekend.  The suppressed route is still the one most likely for the weekend system and instead we’re left with an unseasonably cold, mostly dry forecast, locally.  We’ll still be on the watch for the potential of some light snow early Saturday, but the more significant, accumulating snow will be shoved south to the TN Valley.  Those beautiful northeast TN and western NC mountains look to be in the “sweet spot” for this storm (plowable accumulations).

Another storm system will track through the Mid West as we close the weekend and open next week.  Consequently, clouds increase late in the day Sunday and snow should overspread the region Monday.  Reinforcing cold air will arrive Tuesday with snow showers and gusty winds.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.20″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/enjoy-today-winter-returns/

Mar 08

Strong Wind Event; Winter Makes A Comeback…

Highlights:

  • Windy day ahead
  • Colder pattern develops
  • Two snow chances in the days ahead

Hold On To Your Hats…The big story today will be developing strong and gusty winds, especially from the city and points north.  Westerly gusts will approach 50 MPH+ this afternoon and evening.  Hold onto your hats (and steering wheels)!

As we move into the latter portions of the week and into next week, a fast and active weather pattern will develop.  Three disturbances will have at least some impact on our weather between Thursday evening and Tuesday morning.

The first disturbance will result in an increase in cloudiness late Thursday along with an evening shower- especially across far eastern portions of the state.  We’ll turn much colder to close the week and that’s when our second disturbance will approach.  Clouds will increase Saturday and light snow is possible.  Models have trended further south with this disturbance, but we need to keep an eye on this as a last-minute shift north could take place.  As of this update, the most impactful disturbance looks to be the one that arrives Monday into Tuesday.  Accordingly, we’ll forecast developing snow Monday, continuing Tuesday with strong and gusty winds and even colder air.

After a prolonged stretch of spring-like warmth, the upcoming forecast period will serve as harsh reality that Old Man Winter still has some fight left in him.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/strong-wind-event-winter-makes-a-comeback/

Mar 06

Thoughts Shift From Storms To Snow…

Before we discuss the weekend winter storm threat, we still have to get through the overnight period-morning hours Tuesday with embedded heavy rain and storms.  Some of these storms could offer up gusty winds and a few could be strong as they rumble across central Indiana Tuesday morning.

Most of the storms should push through west-central Indiana well before the morning rush hour.

Forecast radar 4am Tuesday.

Forecast radar 6am Tuesday.

Attention will then shift to the winter storm threat this weekend- particularly Friday night through early Sunday morning.  We still have to fine tune the all-important specifics, but confidence is rising on the possibility of a significant wintry event impacting at least portions of the region this weekend.  March snow events provide added headaches of dealing with the impacts of marginal temperatures, higher sun angle/ time of day, etc.  Conversely, the tight thermal gradients noted with most late season, spring snow events can be impressive, as they can quickly feedback, ultimately leading to swaths of thumping wet, heavy snow.  Hoosiers don’t have to think back too terribly far to some impressive and impactful March snow events.  Modeling today is in relatively good and surprising agreement, especially considering the lack of agreement models have dealt us weather ‘folk for the past few months.  🙂

GFS ensemble members are focusing in on a snow event this weekend.

It’s still early in the game and a lot can (and likely will) change with model runs over the next few days.  It’s wise not to make knee-jerk reactions to the operational model solutions, but instead understand the overall pattern driving the potential of this memorable March wintry event.  Anomalously cold air in southern Canada will spill south this weekend and help aid in the “fun and games” ahead.  At the same time, given the time of year, “suppression depression” isn’t likely as their will be resistance from the south-central Plains and southeast ridging in place.  As of now, we think the I-70 corridor could be the “sweet spot” for snow totals, understanding fine-tuning will be required moving forward.  Where a snowpack accumulates this weekend, expect temperatures Sunday night/ Monday morning to fall into the 10s.

Much more later!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thoughts-shift-from-storms-to-snow/