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Category: Rain
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-albertos-moisture-arrives-late-tomorrow-night/
May 27
Alberto’s Tropical Moisture Tracks North Later This Week…
Understanding tropical remnants can be a headache to track once inland, here’s our best idea of where we currently think Alberto’s remnant tropical moisture will track this week. More specific to Indiana, we believe best opportunity for tropical downpours will come late Tuesday night through early Thursday. Wednesday appears to be the wettest day.
The combination of blocking high pressure off the Florida coast and the lack of forcing to the northwest should allow the remnants of Alberto to track north, northwest into the middle and latter parts of the week before curling northeast into southeast Canada and New England by next weekend.
The European output (shown above) paints a swath of 1″ to 2″ with locally heavier rainfall into parts of IL and IN. Again, we think the majority of this comes in that Tuesday night through Thursday morning time period.
When we look at forecast precipitable water, values climb above 2″ Wednesday and will help promote locally heavy downpours.
This isn’t expected to be a particularly long lasting event and we should get back to an increasingly dry regime as next weekend approaches.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/albertos-tropical-moisture-tracks-north-later-this-week/
May 26
VIDEO: Couple Storms Around Today; Watching Alberto’s Remnants Next Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-couple-storms-around-today-watching-albertos-remnants-next-week/
May 25
VIDEO: Heat Builds For The Indy 500 & Memorial Day Weekend; What About Rain Chances?
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-heat-builds-for-the-indy-500-what-about-rain-chances/
May 24
Looking Over The New JMA Weeklies…
The JMA Weeklies update every Thursday morning and this gives us another tool to look at when developing the forecast over the upcoming 3-4 weeks. Here are some highlights from the most recent update:
Week 1
The big story in Week 1 is the surge of tropical moisture with the area of disturbed weather in the GOM (Gulf of Mexico). Unfortunately, it’s not until possibly Week 2 that remnant tropical moisture may interact with an approaching cold front to provide better rain chances here. The big story for the balance of the upcoming Week 1 period, locally, will be the heat. An unseasonably warm stretch will continue through the Memorial Day weekend and on into the middle of next week.
Week 2
The model shows a bit of a transition in the pattern with the core of the heat shifting west during the Week 2 period. With this, there are some hints that the pattern will turn increasingly wet and stormy, locally, including a backing off of the extreme 90° heat.
Weeks 3-4
An intriguing “ring of fire” pattern develops in the Weeks 3-4 time frame. If correct, this would result in a more active pattern across the Mid West with a busy northwest flow pattern emerging. Storm complexes are notorious for tracking in a northwest to southeast fashion around the hot dome. Sure enough, the model is going with a wetter than normal pattern here. It’s hard to disagree with that given the look at 500mb.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/looking-over-the-new-jma-weeklies/