Category: Rain

Jul 21

Early August Ideas…

The year continues to fly by! We’re now finalizing our forecast for the last month of meteorological summer and will include a look-ahead to our early fall ideas with the official August Outlook that hits the site later next week. With that said, here are some of our early August ideas:

I. Sea surface temperatures remain well above average through the western Atlantic basin as well as the northeastern Pacific. This should promote warmer than normal conditions, overall, along the coastal areas. Additionally, we’ll need to continue to keep a close eye on the potential of additional “home grown” (Gulf of Mexico and off the southeast US coast) tropical development as we move closer to the peak of the hurricane season.

II. The MJO isn’t nearly as hyper as months past. While we’ll continue to keep a close eye on things, we currently don’t anticipate being able to lean on this tool as a good indicator for what may transpire through the month of August (at least early on).

III. We need to keep a very close eye on the EPO over the upcoming week to see if modeling continues to project a significantly negative phase into August. This can “up the ante” for a cooler than normal central US during August if so.

IV. Lack of widespread drought/ dryness. The wet spring and early summer really can help make an impact longer term and that has been seen as early as this week (added humidity with the heat wave), but also helps overall when it comes to late summer and the respect to the staying power, or longevity, of heat waves.

Here’s our early thinking with respect to August temperatures and precipitation. Again, our final, more detailed, outlook will be issued next week!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/early-august-ideas/

Jul 20

VIDEO: Big Changes On Deck; Looking Into August…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-big-changes-on-deck-looking-into-august/

Jul 19

Dangerously Hot Now, But We’re Talking About An Entirely Different Weather Pattern To Close July And Open August…

Over the weekend we’ll bake in some of the hottest and most humid air we’ve dealt with around these parts since 2012, however big relief is on the horizon.

We’ll get rid of the expansive upper level ridge responsible for the heat this weekend and replace it with a significant trough (at least by late summer standards).

Weekend heat and humidity will be about as bad as it can get around central Indiana. It’ll be important to build in frequent breaks indoors if you have any sort of lengthy outdoor activities planned.
A major pattern flip will result in unseasonably cool and refreshing air next week.

A strong cold front will sweep through the Ohio Valley Sunday and Monday with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms (a few may be strong). It’s this front that will help usher in the refreshing changes for next week. We’ll go from heat indices between 104-108 this weekend to overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s at times next week. Ahhhhhh….

As we look ahead to early August, there’s certain to be additional warm-hot days, however, the mean pattern doesn’t look to promote any sort of sustained significant heat through the early portion of the month. Perhaps the most interesting item showing up on the longer range guidance (EPS and GEFS) is a return of a northwesterly flow aloft and the potential of a wetter regime building in as we traverse the early August period.

Hang in there, the reward on the other side of the weekend will be worth it with cool, Canadian air flowing south.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/dangerously-hot-now-but-were-talking-about-an-entirely-different-weather-pattern-to-close-july-and-open-august/

Jul 13

VIDEO: What Does The 2nd Half Of July Have In Store?

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-what-does-the-2nd-half-of-july-have-in-store/

Jul 13

Barry Moves Inland; Pattern Progression Into Late July…

Tropical Storm Barry will make landfall today along the central LA coast as a strong tropical storm or hurricane (further strengthening is likely before making landfall later today). Gusts along the LA coast already this morning have reached 81 MPH. Once inland, the biggest concern with Barry’s remnants will come from a heavy rain and flooding situation. The heaviest rainfall will fall to the east of the center of circulation, encompassing central and eastern LA, western MS, eastern AR, and into western TN.

While Barry’s moisture will get into central Indiana early next week, we continue to believe the steady, heavier rainfall will remain across southern portions of the state. Overall, we don’t see any reason to alter our ongoing idea of where the heaviest axis of rain will set up shop. Tuesday into Wednesday appears to be the wettest period for the Ohio Valley from Barry. It’s possible a good portion of southern IN into central and southern OH receives 1″ to 2″ of rain with locally heavier totals during this time period. Understanding we’re talking about tropical remnants still roughly 72-84 hours away, some additional tweaking is likely to the forecast rainfall numbers.

Once Barry’s remnants exit to the east, the heat will be the big story for the 2nd half of the work week and into next weekend. Highs in the lower to middle 90s with overnight lows in the middle 70s can be expected as a ridge of high pressure expands over the region.

As we look beyond next week, the pattern should promote the axis of the ridge retrograding west. This would put the Ohio Valley in a more active northwest upper air flow, resulting in a backing off of the extreme heat and better rain/ storm chances as we progress through the last week of the month.

More later this afternoon with our video update! Enjoy your Saturday morning, friends.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/barry-moves-inland-pattern-progression-into-late-july/