Apr 03
Good evening. It’s been a busy day across central Indiana and we’re not finished just yet. While the heaviest rains and strong to severe thunderstorms targets southern parts of the…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/03/looking-at-tonights-weather-and-another-storm-monday/
Apr 03
It’s a wet and stormy morning across central Indiana, including heavy rain and embedded stronger storms. The latest HRRR short-term data paints a continued stormy picture through the morning.
That said, we’ll get into some dry time late morning into the afternoon, but the atmosphere will be priming itself for another noisy night ahead. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlines the region under a slight risk of severe weather, including damaging wind, damaging hail, and a potential tornado. The greatest risk of severe is to our south, but we must remain on our toes tonight into the wee morning hours Friday. Please keep your weather radios on alert mode tonight.
The simulated radar shows thunderstorms re-firing to our west late tonight, moving in during the overnight hours.
When all is said and done (and accounting Wednesday’s rain) we still forecast widespread 2-3″ of rain across the region, with locally heavier totals. Additionally, we bracket late tonight into the early Friday morning hours for the greatest chance of severe weather across our region. Hail and straight line wind damage are of the greatest concerns, but a tornado can’t be ruled out. The cold front will sweep the state clean Friday afternoon and help set up a very nice, although cooler, weekend.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/03/update-on-the-heavy-rain-and-severe-potential/
Apr 01
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Forecast Updated 04.02.14 @ 7:30a
Heading Into A Stormy, Wet Period. . .While periods of showers and thunderstorms will be with us through Friday morning, we break things down and focus in on this afternoon/ evening into Thursday morning for the potential of heaviest rainfall. We then think we experience a bit of a “lull” in the action Thursday afternoon before we ramp things back up and introduce a severe weather component Thursday night into Friday morning. Renewed heavy rains would also accompany these thunderstorms. As for the severe risk, really all modes of severe weather are in play, including damaging hail, straight line winds, and even the possibility of a tornado or two. We’ll continue to closely monitor the ongoing weather situation and suggest you plan to keep abreast of the latest developments in the days ahead in terms of potentially flooding and severe weather. Severe weather outbreaks are always dangerous, but particularly so at night.
The cold front will sweep the state clean of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms Friday morning and this will set things up for a much quieter, calmer (although windy) close to the week.
When all is said and done, we forecast widespread 2-3″ rainfall through the heart of the state, including central Indiana, along with localized amounts between 3″ and 4″.
Much Needed, Calmer, Weekend. . .High pressure will build over head as we go through the weekend and this will supply a drier, calmer period Saturday and Sunday. We’ll note a cooler air mass in place, along with a gusty northwest wind Saturday, but winds will calm Sunday, ensuring a pleasant close to the weekend.
Eyeing Our Next Storm. . .Things are still much in the air in regards to the precise details with a new storm system early next week, but we’re confident something’s brewing. The European data suggests this is another heavy rain event for our neck of the woods Monday, while the GFS is further east, and takes the majority of the moisture up the eastern seaboard. We’ll continue to monitor things.
One more item of note, mid to long range guidance is in agreement on the return of a below normal temperature pattern here later next week… In fact, a few wet snow flurries may fly next Tuesday as the cold air pushes back in.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/01/wet-stormy-period/
Apr 01
Today will be another beauty! Enjoy! We think conditions go down hill rather rapidly later tonight through Friday morning with periods of heavy rain and the threat of severe weather…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/01/enjoy-today-heavy-rain-and-storms-in-our-future/
Mar 31
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Forecast Updated 03.31.14 @ 7:56a
Beauty Of An Open To The Work Week. . .A sun-filled Monday is ahead until clouds begin to increase later this evening with the approach of a weak cold front. This front will deliver a couple of scattered showers late tonight into the wee morning hours Tuesday. We’ll then get back to sunshine late morning/ early afternoon Tuesday. Average highs are at 59 degrees for Indianapolis now, so both today and Tuesday will be milder than average.
As we head into Tuesday evening, clouds will quickly increase yet again along with a chance of showers going into Tuesday night, especially north of the city. Two day rainfall amounts will be light and average less than one tenth of an inch across central Indiana.
Heavier Rain. . .We still think Wednesday through Friday will be very wet and stormy at times. Periods of moderate to heavy rain can be expected Wednesday and Thursday. We’ll then introduce thunderstorms into our forecast Friday (some of which may reach strong to severe levels) as a cold front swings through the region. Three day rainfall totals of 1.5″ to 2″ will be common across the region.
Drier, Colder Weekend. . .Some wrap around snow flurries are possible early Saturday, but shouldn’t be a huge deal. Otherwise, gusty northwest winds will combine with a partly cloudy sky by afternoon to combine to produce a chilly Saturday. Temperatures moderate Sunday with continued dry weather.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/31/beautiful-open-to-the-work-week/
Mar 30
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Forecast Updated 03.30.14 @ 9:24a
A Nice Close To The Weekend. . .After a cold, wet, and snowy Saturday, it’ll be nice to have a full day of sunshine as we put a wrap on the weekend. While we’re getting off to a cold and frosty start, that increasingly powerful late March sun angle will help warm temperatures quickly.
Weak Front. . .A moisture starved front will cross the region late Monday night into early Tuesday. While a light shower is possible as this front limps through the region, we’re keeping our forecast dry for now. Regardless, Monday will be a very nice day, despite an increasing southwest breeze. Tuesday will be equally as nice, just a few degrees cooler.
Big Rains For Mid/ Late Week. . .The Gulf will open up for business in the days ahead and this will keep our neck of the woods rather wet Wednesday through Friday. Periods of rain will fall Wednesday and Thursday, and temperatures will be cooler thanks to an easterly breeze. All in all, Wednesday and Thursday will be wet, raw days. We’ll get into some warmer air ahead of a strong cold front Friday and this will increase thunderstorm chances, including the potential of a couple strong storms. We think rainfall totals between Wednesday and Friday could reach between 1.5″ and 2″.
Chilly Weekend. . .A colder air mass will build into the region behind Friday’s front. While sunshine will return Saturday, temperatures will go backwards. Couple a strong northwest breeze into the mix and Saturday could be a pretty chilly day.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!
Big, wet snow flakes were falling fast and furious Saturday morning. John Salewicz sent in this photo of the heavy snow falling in Zionsville Saturday morning. Thanks, John!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/30/now-this-is-more-like-it/
Mar 28
We continue to closely monitor the goings on around a late March storm system that promises to provide quite the snow show for some tomorrow morning! Details can be found…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/28/heavy-snow-for-a-while-saturday-morning/
Mar 27
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Forecast Updated 03.28.14 @ 7:57a
Early Rain. . .Some lingering showers will be possible early this morning, but the majority of the heavier rain and thunderstorms are exiting stage right as we kick off the last day of the work week. We may even note some afternoon clearing, but otherwise think the day will be a mostly cloudy one, along with steady or slowly falling temperatures and a gusty northwest wind.
Tricky Saturday Situation; Better Sunday. . .As fast as one storm system departs, our attention has to turn to the next event. Rain will overspread the area late tonight into early Saturday morning. As low pressure moves from the southern TN Valley into the central and eastern parts of KY, colder air will be drawn into the storm along the northern periphery of the precipitation shield. Additionally, precipitation rates will likely be heavy enough to assist in cooling the column of air just enough to allow for a transition to wet snow across portions of the region during the morning Saturday.
While we’re not expecting major snowfall accumulations, it’s likely some communities (especially north and northeast of IND) see a slushy 1-3″ of snow Saturday morning. It’ll be a wet snow and will likely fall “fast and furious” for a short time period Saturday morning. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune. Otherwise, look for a rather cloudy, cold, and raw day with precipitation ending from southwest to northeast during the late morning into the early afternoon.
After a very cold start to Sunday, that March sun will get to work and help salvage a pleasant second half of the weekend. In fact, Sunday is looking mostly sunny and much milder at this point.
Weak Front. . .A weak front will swing through here late Monday into early Tuesday morning, but moisture will be lacking with this front and a scattered shower or thundershower is possible Monday night. That said, most will likely remain dry.
Big, Wet Storm System. . .A significant storm system will organize over the Plains by the middle of next week. Unlike our early week storm, the Gulf of Mexico will be wide open and help supply copious amounts of moisture. We target Wednesday and Thursday for heavy rain and thunderstorms (some of which may be strong Thursday). While it won’t rain the entire time, early ideas place 1-2″ of rain down in the Wednesday-Thursday time period alone.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/27/wet-snow-saturday/
Mar 27
Busy times in the forecast office continues. We are eyeing potentially noisy thunderstorms later tonight and the threat of wet accumulating snow for portions of the area Saturday. Details can…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/27/covering-gusty-storms-tonight-and-saturday-snow/
Mar 27
A busy weather pattern will keep us on our toes with two storm systems of note between now and Saturday.
Periods of showers will keep most of today wet. While it won’t rain the entire time, periods of moderate to heavy showers are possible today. A quick punch of milder air will arrive this afternoon after a chilly start to the day, combined with a strengthening south wind. Total rainfall today and tonight should average half an inch, or less.
Highs today will reach the lower 50s, despite the showers.
Latest simulated radar data shows the potential of a line of thunderstorms moving through here late tonight, directly associated with the cold front. A strong storm is possible along with gusty winds as the front slides through early Friday morning.
As if all of this wasn’t enough, another storm system will arrive Saturday. This system will have a wintry component to it, with the chance of a stripe of wet snow along the northern shield of precipitation. It’ll require our attention as we move forward. March storms have been known to have a surprise or two and it’s our job to try and help eliminate any of these surprises.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/27/busy-pattern/
