Category Archives: Rain

Weekly #AGwx And #Harvest21 Outlook…

Updated 10.16.21 @ 8:10a

The upcoming 7-day will feature a trough of low pressure along the eastern seaboard and a new trough pushing into the West. In between, transitional ridging will take place through the central.
Above average temperatures will be found across the northern tier with below normal air strung across the south.
Most of the country can expect below normal precipitation this week. The exception being northern New England and the far PAC NW.
We forecast between 0.10″ and 0.20″ of rain here in central Indiana during the 7-day period. That will be associated with a low pressure system and associated cold front Thursday.

Forecast Period: 10.16.21 through 10.23.21

A true fall cold front blew through the region during the overnight. You can certainly feel the difference out the door this morning as northwest winds blow the chilly, much drier air into the region. Highs today will struggle to crack the 60° mark. “Sweater weather, anyone?!” We’ll prep for the first round of patchy frost in outlying areas by Sunday morning as temperatures dip into the mid and upper 30s, winds go calm, and skies are clear.

As we head into the new week, much needed dry time can be expected to open things up as high pressure dominates. Look for a string of sunny days and cool, clear nights. This will give the “nudge” needed to ignite what’s otherwise been a delayed and sluggish fall foliage season.

Our next system of note will arrive Thursday in the form of a low pressure system and trailing cold front. Showers are expected to arrive Thursday morning from the west. We’re not talking about impressive rainfall numbers with the front, itself (on the order of 0.10″ to 0.20″ Thursday), but the period heading into next weekend remains in limbo between forecast models duking it out with the wetter GFS and drier European. We’ll see if we can get more agreement over the next day or two.

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, AG Report, Autumn, Client, Ensemble Discussion, First frost, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest21, Rain

VIDEO: Storms Arrive This Afternoon And Evening; Tracking A Cooler Push Of Air For The Weekend…

Updated 10.11.21 @ 12a

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No Comments Autumn, Client, Ensemble Discussion, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest21, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Videos

Monitoring Monday’s Storm Threat…

Updated 10.09.21 @ 9:30a

After a mostly dry, sunny, and unseasonably warm weekend, our next storm system will approach as we kick off the work week. Southerly winds will usher in an unseasonably moist airmass to combine with August-like temperatures (highs once again are expected to shoot into the lower and middle 80s).

Southerly winds will transport unseasonably muggy air north Monday. South winds will gust 30-35 MPH at times.
Dew points will climb into the middle and upper 60s ahead of the approaching cold front Monday.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlines the western Ohio Valley, including most of Indiana, into the central Great Lakes region for a Slight Risk of severe weather Monday.

A surface wave is expected to develop along the pressing cold front Sunday evening and track northeast into the Great Lakes. After a warm, dry, and breezy start to Monday, a line of thunderstorms should develop late Monday morning or early afternoon across western IL. This line will then track east and move into Indiana during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Given some of the ingredients in place, the primary concern with this line of storms will be the potential of damaging straight line winds. There also is the potential of a couple rotating storms within this overall line of storms that could pose an isolated tornado threat.

After the stormy time of things Monday PM (rainfall amounts should check-in between 0.50″ and 1″ for most), conditions will improve as we move through the day Tuesday. Another (weaker) system will push into the area midweek, but as of now this doesn’t look like a significant event.

A stronger cold front will arrive to close the week with more widespread rain. After an unseasonably warm stretch, cooler air should finally filter into the region next weekend.

No Comments Autumn, Client, Dew points, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest21, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm, Windy