Updated 05.11.23 @ 9:45p
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Category: NAO
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/lr-update-walking-through-the-next-few-weeks-and-an-el-nino-update/
Apr 28
LR Update: May Pattern Evolution And Early Look At June…
Updated 04.28.23 @ 2:33a
While we remain bullish on a warmer response in the Week 2-3 time period, the longevity of any sort of “warm-up” is the point we’re trying to drive home. The MJO is still forecast to amplify into Phase 6 just past May 10th. As a result, our stubborn call remains on modeling being “forced” to correct warmer during this time.
As it is, we’re in a camp of our own with that call based off Thursday’s long range update. Note both the new European Weeklies and JMA Weeklies show the eastern trough remaining.
At the very least, it’s an interesting test case on our hands that we’ll be able to see play out in real time.
Even if we do see the Week 2-3 warm up, it’s likely to be short-lived as the MJO continues to rumble into cooler phases and the teleconnections (namely the EPO and NAO) tag-team neutral to negative through the bulk of May and into early June.
The end result after any sort of warmer response during the aforementioned time period is likely for at least a slightly cooler pattern to return compared to average. The relatively drier pattern will also trend wetter late May into early June.
At the end of the day, we still see a warmer surge taking hold, locally, between Weeks 2-3. However cooler and wetter conditions likely settle back in as we navigate the back half of May and into early June at least.
Is this a hint of the times as summer matures? Not out of the question this year as we flip the page to Nino conditions…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/lr-update-may-pattern-evolution-and-early-look-at-june/
Apr 27
More Rumblings Around The Mid-May Pattern Change…
Updated 04.27.23 @ 2:07a
May will open with a continuation of unseasonably chilly weather. We’re even looking at the potential of an additional frost threat early next week.
But there are changes in the offing just beyond the 10th, or so. The NAO trends neutral.
And the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is heading towards the balmy (for May standards) Phase 6.
While there will be some questions with respect to the longevity of the warm-up, we should see a notable flip in the pattern just beyond the first 1/3 of the month, including much warmer weather across our neck of the woods and a good chunk of the east as a whole.
I would anticipate models to trend warmer in that Weeks 2-3 timeframe over the course of the next couple of days.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/more-rumblings-around-the-mid-may-pattern-change/
Apr 15
VIDEO: Gorgeous Saturday Ahead Of An Unsettled Open To The New Week; Chilly Close To April On Deck…
Updated 04.15.23 @ 8:56a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-gorgeous-saturday-ahead-of-an-unsettled-open-to-the-new-week-chilly-close-to-april-on-deck/
Apr 13
VIDEO: Weekend Severe Threat? Long Range Outlook Into May…
Updated 04.13.23 @ 8p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-weekend-severe-threat-long-range-outlook-into-may/