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Category: MJO
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-short-term-storm-update-fresh-thoughts-on-the-late-may-pattern/
May 14
VIDEO: Summer-Like Feel Develops; Talking Storm Chances In The Days Ahead…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-summer-like-feel-develops-talking-storm-chances-in-the-days-ahead/
May 13
“Transition” Is The Name Of The Game…
As we look ahead to late-May and early June, “transition” is the word that comes to mind when describing the overall weather pattern.
We’re going to begin pulling out of this unseasonably chilly pattern late-week and we’ll replace it with a true summer-like regime. Note the differences at 500mb between now and this weekend:
Not only will the 80s return, but oppressive dew points can be expected as well by Friday (65-70 degrees). The sweat factor will be back in full effect!
With that said, there’s reason for concern that the flip to summer may not last.
Not only do we continue to see high-latitude blocking in place, but the MJO is showing signs of rotating into Phase 1 as we inch closer to early-June. That Phase 1 this time of year is a cool one for the eastern portion of the country. Note the tendency for eastern troughiness illustrated in Image 2 below.
Perhaps ensemble data is seeing this cooler transition in the pattern on today’s 12z run:
Bottom line, confidence is high on a summer-like flip as we welcome in the weekend, continuing into early parts of Week 2, but we don’t think it’s a “stick and hold” variety of warmth. There’s growing reason to believe a flip back to cooler conditions looms before we close out the month.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/transition-is-the-name-of-the-game/
May 06
More Evidence Behind Mid-May Shift To Cooler And Drier…
Though May has opened warmer than average (to the tune of 1 degree F above normal, month-to-date), there’s growing evidence behind a shift towards not only a cooler pattern for mid-month, but drier, as well.
MJO:
The Madden Julian Oscillation is forecast to move through Phase 7 (a cooler phase in May across the eastern half of the country).
PNA:
The Pacific North America pattern is forecast to remain positive into mid-May. This favors a cooler than normal south-central into the eastern portion of the country, as well.
To no surprise, we see modeling now in excellent agreement of the cooler mid-month shift that awaits on deck. Recall that this wasn’t the case last week when the GFS and EPS were in vast disagreement.
The cooler shift also will provide relief from the seemingly unending wet regime we’ve been in as of late.
Hang in there; after a warm, wet open to the month, the pattern will begin to shift around in significant fashion as we move into the weekend and beyond…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/more-evidence-behind-mid-may-shift-to-cooler-and-drier/
Mar 04
VIDEO: All-Access Long Range Update…
This evening’s long range video update discusses the pattern drivers behind the late-March weather pattern…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-all-access-long-range-update/