Category Archives: MJO

Wednesday Morning Rambles: Midweek Storms, MJO Impacts On Late March Pattern…

I. The morning is off to a quiet, chilly start, but clouds will lower and thicken through the morning and rain will soon follow. Periods of moderate to heavy rain can be expected this afternoon into the early evening hours, including widespread 0.50″ to 1″ with a few locally heavier amounts.

Rain will become widespread across the region through the afternoon.
Most of central Indiana can expect between 0.5″ and 1″ by midnight.

II. A changeable weather day is on tap Thursday with a couple of rounds of storms expected- late morning and again during the evening and night. The initial round of storms will lift northeast across the state Thursday morning into early afternoon, courtesy of a warm front. Highs will flirt with 70° tomorrow afternoon once the storms move out.

A cold front will then sweep through the region during the overnight. Additional storms (some potentially strong to severe) will take place as the front moves through the region.

A few storms may be strong to severe as the cold front moves through Thursday evening-night.

III. We’ll turn MUCH colder, but at least the sunshine will return as we move through the weekend. Lows in the 20s can be expected.

IV. Our next storm system looks to arrive Tuesday. From this distance, it appears this will be a potent system, including strong winds and heavy rain.

V. Longer term, we continue to watch the various players align. The MJO looks to amplify and rumble into Phase 3 by late March. The movement through Phases 1-2 can at least generate transient cold for our neck of the woods before Phase 3 favors the brunt of the cold across the West. Interestingly, this is what the latest European ensemble is also showing.

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VIDEO: Gorgeous Weekend; Discussing Timing Of Systems Next Week And Longer Range Impacts Of The MJO/ EPO…

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March 2020 Outlook…

The majority of longer range models are bullish on a much warmer than normal month of March. Below you’ll see a snap shot of the latest JMA Weeklies, European Weeklies, and CFSv2. All are in relative agreement on a warm open to meteorological spring.

The other common theme? Strong signals for wetter, to much wetter, than normal conditions.

Note the first image of the JMA Weekly data is also leaning in the direction of wetter than normal conditions.

Indianapolis March “averages” include a low of 32.8°, a high of 51.7°, 3.56″ of rain, and 2.6″ of snow.

We’re leaning in the direction of a warmer than normal, wetter than normal month, as well. The reason? You guessed it- a predominantly positive EPO and the MJO that’s expected to rumble primarily through the warmer phases for this time of year.

We’ll tackle the latter first. Note the latest MJO plot takes things through Phases 4-5. Those are notorious warm phases in March as shown by the composite 500mb analogs below.

While the MJO plot above only goes out to mid-month, there are reasons to believe things won’t get into the cold phases and that we should cycle back into the warmer phases, or potentially remain in the “null” phase.

We’ll, of course, have to monitor the EPO for negative “jabs” that may try and take place, but think we’re looking at a predominantly positive EPO throughout the month. Additionally, the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) looks to also remain predominantly positive and this is also a warm signal for this time of year.

Accordingly, we’re leaning towards a warm, yet wet open to meteorological spring, including temperatures that should run 1° to 3° above normal across central Indiana.

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