Dec 02
Updated 12.02.23 @ 7:42a We’re going to be socked in with considerable cloudiness this weekend, but these clouds will have more bark than bite. A few showers will scoot through…
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Dec 01
Updated 12.01.23 @ 7:44a
Though far from a blowtorch, the pattern over the next couple weeks (1st half of December) will feature milder than normal temperatures.
The pattern drivers, starting first and foremost with the MJO (more on the impacts late December in a moment), suggest milder than normal times should hold through the first half of December overall.
The EPO is also forecast predominantly positive with an erratic PNA pattern. Bottom line, all combined, this should promote an overall mild open to the month with a lack of any sort of significant winter weather threats.
The period opens wet and finishes (mid-month) that way with dryness in between.
Focusing in more on the MJO helps illustrate the story we’re telling not only over the next couple weeks, but into early 2024.
We’re currently in the warmest phases of the MJO this time of year (3, 4, and 5 in particular), but things start to change once to Phase 6 and beyond.
Many times, cold, arctic air begins to build on our side of the pole in Phase 6 and then busts loose in Phases 7 and 8. I think that’s on the table for us this year given where it appears the MJO wants to head and this is backed by long range teleconnection charts (namely the EPO and PNA) seemingly wanting to also head into the traditional colder phases, respectively.
This image will show the progression and corresponding upper level pattern nicely.
To close, while the first half of the month doesn’t appear to be overly kind to winter weather enthusiasts, it continues to look like the combination of the MJO, EPO, and PNA are aligning in a manner that will deliver more of a wholesale pattern change to colder than normal times past mid month and especially after the 20th. By that timeframe, we’ll have to start monitoring storm systems to potentially have a more wintry theme to them.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/lr-update-things-progressing-as-planned-cold-pattern-looming-for-the-holidays-and-into-early-24/
Nov 30
Updated 11.30.23 @ 7:44a Clouds will increase through the afternoon and give way to light rain by evening. That rain will grow more widespread and heavier in nature as we…
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Nov 29
Updated 11.29.23 @ 7:33a Our airmass will undergo quite the change over the next 24 hours. The early season taste of arctic air will be replaced with a milder (but…
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Nov 20
Updated 11.20.23 @ 5:30p
I. The weather pattern will turn progressively colder as we move through the Thanksgiving holiday. This isn’t anything earth-shattering by any stretch, but temperatures running 4° to 8° below normal is pretty stout. There’s also still the potential of an early season arctic “jab” prior to us getting out of the first 3-5 days of December, but that likely comes after this weekend- if at all.
As a whole, it’s a dry pattern that will accompany the chill, but we will want to continue keeping an eye on energy that will eject off the Rockies over the weekend. At times models can underplay these features only to have to correct stronger as we grow closer to the potential event. Will that be the case this time? Impossible to say from this distance- just something we’ll continue to monitor with such a busy travel period. As it is today, modeling wants to “string” the energy out which would essentially be a light or non-event.
II. While the pattern drivers all are aligned for a cold open (first few days) of December, there’s reason to believe a period of milder than normal air will take foot just after- say sometime between 12/5 and 12/8, or so. That said, we’re in a bit of a fork in the road so to speak.
The East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is going to pop positive at least for a period of time prior to mid-December. This strongly argues for a relaxation of the cold regime that we’ll endure to open the month. Guidance differs on the handling of the MJO, however. Should the American guidance be correct in taking things into Phase 4, when combined with what we see transpiring with the EPO, then we’re off to the races for at least a 7-10 day period of much warmer than normal temperatures. That said, European guidance collapses the MJO into the “null” phase and even hints at things emerging again in the colder phases come mid December. While we still have time to sort through this “mess,” the idea here is that the cold open to the month will moderate to slightly to moderately above normal for a 7-10 day period leading us into mid-month. Thereafter, I’m becoming increasingly bullish for a renewed cold pattern developing towards the Christmas and New Years holidays…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/dinnertime-rambles-talking-thanksgiving-weekend-and-early-december/