Category: Long Range Discussion

Jul 29

August Outlook: Does The Refreshing Start Run The Duration?

Average August temperatures in Indianapolis feature highs falling from 84° to begin the month to 83° by months end, while average lows drop from 65° to 62°. We average 3.13″ of rain for the month as a whole.

There’s been a lot of chatter recently from local weather sources around how recent Augusts have run cooler than normal. Simply put, that’s not the case. Looking back to 2015, we’re running a clip of “every other year” running cooler than normal, locally.

As we look at August 2020 and the last month of meteorological summer, there are reasons to buy stock into cooler prospects, especially through the 1st half of the month. While there will likely be a rebound late month, it may not be enough to tip the scale towards the warmer side of normal.

Note the recent trends of the CFSv2. While never overly warm for our particular region, the model is expanding the cool for the month and pressing the relative warmth to the coasts.

Interestingly, the model is also developing a more consistent wet look.

The latest European Weeklies have a similar (but not identical) look:

The JMA is in the same boat, as well:

A positive PNA is anticipated to rule through the majority of the month:

The wild card, as is always the case this time of year, will be the tropics. There’s reason to buy into the idea (outlined in previous discussions and videos) that the “heart” of the season will be hyperactive and that begins during the month of August. Obviously, it’s impossible to talk landfall/ inland impacts, but those with interests to the GOM (Gulf of Mexico) and East Coast should closely monitor the tropics through the month, and for that matter, into the fall months.

Officially, we expect a much wetter than normal month across central Indiana along with average temperatures. The cooler than normal 1st half of the month will likely be met with moderation (compared to normal and in the means) late month to balance things out close to average. Our official August forecast is below.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/august-outlook-does-the-refreshing-start-run-the-duration/

Jul 27

VIDEO: Storms This Afternoon; Potential Heavy Rain Maker Late Week?

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-storms-this-afternoon-potential-heavy-rain-maker-late-week/

Jul 24

Long Range Update; Initial August Forecast…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-update-initial-august-forecast/

Jul 19

More Thoughts On August…

The last month of meteorological summer is on our doorstep and while we’re still several days from having our finalized forecast built, here are some early ideas on where the pattern is going for August. First, let’s start with some modeling:

European

The Euro features the ‘mean’ ridge axis across the inner-mountain West with a northwesterly flow aloft into the Ohio Valley and eastern Lakes. Given the 500mb pattern, one would think the model would have the heat and wet areas shifted west to better correlate with the ridge placement, but that’s not the case. One item of note is that the model may be seeing tropical influences with the wet area across the Southeast and Mid Atlantic.

JMA

The JMA is similar with the handling of the 500mb pattern, but better aligns the temperature and precipitation pattern with this look at the upper levels. Brunt of the heat (relative to normal) is across the West with a wet Southeast and Ohio Valley.

CFSv2

While a bit chaotic with the precipitation idea, the CFSv2 seems to be locking the warmer anomalies into the Central and East for August.

As has been the case, the MJO will likely have a big say in the August pattern (and continuing into the fall and winter). Despite modeled attempts in the past to swing things into Phases 4-7, we’ve been stuck in the 8,1,2, and 3 cycles over the past several months, and in Phases 1-2 over the past 40 days.

The EPO and PNA are in warm phases and this looks to continue overall into early August.

The early lean with our August forecast will feature a large area of above normal temperatures, including across the Ohio Valley (slightly so), along with near average precipitation. We’ll continue to look through the data and present our official August Outlook week after next.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/more-thoughts-on-august/

Jul 16

Thursday Evening Long Range Update: Late Summer And Early Autumn Pattern On The Horizon…

As we traverse the “dog days” of summer and look ahead to early autumn, what does the overall pattern hold? As is typical this time of year, the tropics are on the verge of becoming much more active, as well. Given analogs and other drivers, we suggest those with plans to the Gulf or Carolina beaches pay particularly close attention to the developments in the coming weeks and couple of months ahead.

The short-term is, obviously, highlighted by unseasonably warm-hot conditions but there’s reason to buy into the ‘mean’ ridge position retrograding west prior to month’s end. The large majority of long range data shows this taking place, as well.

Note the way the new European Weeklies, CFSv2 Weeklies, and JMA Weeklies handle this evolution in similar fashion over the coming 2-3 weeks.

European Weeklies: July 26-31
European Weeklies: July 30-Aug 4
European Weeklies: Aug 8-Aug 13
CFSv2 Weeklies: July 21-31
CFSv2 Weeklies: July 26-Aug 5
CFSv2 Weeklies: July 31-Aug 10
JMA Weeklies: July 19-25
JMA Weeklies: July 26-Aug 2

The screaming message is that the period of heat this weekend into early next week will transition west by the 2nd half of next week and into the Week 2 time period. Furthermore, though not saying there can’t be periods of “transient” heat still yet the remainder of the summer, the bulk of the sustained heat should be behind us once to the middle of next week.

Additionally, data is bullish on a wet close to July. This makes sense with the northwest flow aloft.

As the crucial late-summer stretch hits and harvest season is on the horizon, there’s reason to believe a favorable precipitation pattern should persist- if not potentially a bit wetter than normal. The wildcard, of course, as is typically the case has to do with the tropics. It only takes 1 or 2 tropical systems with the “right” inland track to provide heavy rains into the inland regions and there’s many reasons to buy into the fact this will be quite a busy “heart” of the tropical season this year. We’ll have to handle those as they come, as the steering currents can vary in significant fashion and there’s no way to accurately pinpoint inland areas most at risk of late-summer/ early fall heavy rain events from these tropical threats. Certainly, if your plans take you down to the beautiful Gulf Coast or Carolina beaches, it’ll be important to pay close attention to the developments and goings on as the season matures…

Stay tuned as we continue to move forward. In addition to our August Outlook, we’ll have more on where we believe the pattern is heading this fall and winter in the coming weeks…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thursday-evening-long-range-update-late-summer-and-early-autumn-pattern-on-the-horizon/