Category Archives: Long Range Discussion

Where Do We Go From Here?

Updated 02.08.22 @ 7:09a

After an unseasonably mild December the pattern flipped in January. Indianapolis finished the first month of 2022 down 3° from normal. Add in a hefty winter storm last week and the narrative this winter has changed significantly from how things opened up.

The coming couple of weeks will feature some ups and downs but will balance out colder than normal.

Where we go thereafter is an interesting question. Teleconnections shout it’s time to think spring. However, the MJO says we may want to “tap the brakes” on the spring chatter- at least until the last week of February.

After heading into the chilly Phase 3, we’ll round the turn into a milder Phase 4 late month.

The call here remains unchanged: cold dominates through the medium range (from an overall standpoint, thanks to the MJO) before a flip in the regime and a milder than average pattern to close out the month.

Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Long Range Discussion, MJO, Spring, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles

Long Range Update: Colder Than Average Close To January; Looking Ahead To Early February…

Updated 01.14.22 @ 7a

The primary driver (the Madden Julian Oscillation, or MJO) will be in a favorable phase to allow colder than average temperatures to take up residence across the eastern part of the country as we close out January. To no surprise, these particular phases favor positive heights over the high latitudes (blocking) which helps drive more of a persistent colder than normal pattern.

We’ll keep an eye if the MJO gets stuck in the neutral phase, but the “loop” around into Phase 6 this time of year would continue to favor cooler (to colder) than normal conditions across our portion of the country.

That brings us to our teleconnections. The “big 3” (this time of year include the AO, EPO, and PNA) are also all in favorable position to deliver a colder than normal pattern to close January.


One could also build a case that February would at least open colder than normal based off a combo of the above (MJO and teleconnections) and we agree with that idea, but do believe a “flip” in the regime is ahead after the first week, or so, of the month to milder times.

To no surprise, modeling is showing this cold close to the month.

The opportunity is present for Week 2 to be bitterly cold, as the European is hinting above. Sub-zero temperatures are on the table, especially if we can get some snow down.

Speaking of snow, this pattern should produce a couple opportunities for central Indiana to get in on the act before the end of the month, or beginning of February. Despite the incredibly slow start to the season, take any one particular solution with a grain of salt when looking at operational guidance 2 weeks out.

AO, Arctic Cold, Client, Ensemble Discussion, EPO, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, High-latitude Blocking, Long Range Discussion, MJO, PNA, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather