Category Archives: Long Range Discussion

November Opens With A “Hint” Of What May Be Lurking, But Pattern Likely Not Ready To Lock-In Just Yet…

Updated 10.31.21 @ 3:06p

First and foremost, here’s wishing you and your family a very happy, safe, and fun Halloween. Late October can sure deliver “tricks” in the weather department around these parts, but thankfully we’re going to be treated to very pleasant conditions this year as the kiddos hit the streets this evening.

As we look ahead to November, unseasonably chilly air will settle into the East through the week ahead. The MJO is not a factor presently and is forecast to remain in the “null phase” through the upcoming couple weeks (at least). As such, we’ll lean heavier on the EPO/ PNA tandem to drive the pattern. For a moment, these teleconnections will help power widespread unseasonably chilly air as they are aligned in such a manner (- EPO and +PNA), but as we head towards Week 2, note how both teleconnections head towards warmer phases.

Ensemble guidance sees the chilly short-term pattern moderating in the Week 2 time period and we agree.

Overall, the upcoming (10) days should also feature a much drier regime than what we’ve seen over the past few weeks. Rainfall is forecast below normal through the first 1/3 of November.

While the growing season will come to an end in the week ahead and we continue to believe this chilly short-term pattern is a “hint” to what awaits towards the 2nd half of November, that PNA/ EPO combo suggests we’re not quite ready for the more sustained, and potentially dramatic, pattern change just yet…

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VIDEO: Tracking Multiple Significant Storm Systems In The Coming Days; Pattern Change On The Horizon?

Updated 10.23.21 @ 10:40a

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No Comments Autumn, Client, Ensemble Discussion, EPO, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Halloween, Harvest21, Heavy Rain, Long Range Discussion, PNA, Severe Weather, T-storms, Tornadoes, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Videos, Windy

October Outlook: Bonus Period Of Warmth…

Updated 09.30.21 @ 7:18a

Before we dig into our thoughts around what lies ahead during the 2nd month of meteorological fall, let’s take a look at what some of the longer range computer models show:

JMA- ‘Mean’ ridge parked over southeast Canada and into the northern Great Lakes with an associated warmer than normal pattern pegged from the northern Plains and points east- most notably along the northern tier. (Slightly warmer than normal here in the Ohio Valley).

European Weeklies- almost identical to the JMA above. A persistent ridge is shown anchored across eastern Canada into the Great Lakes region. Well above normal warmth is painted across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes while slightly above normal temperatures take up residence from the Plains and points east.

CFSv2- While still showing the significant upper ridge in the same place as it’s JMA and Euro counterparts, the CFSv2 is more bullish on a western trough and associated cooler pattern for that part of the country. Like the other guidance above, the model paints the warm, to much warmer than normal, look from the Plains and points east.

The warm look being shown on the models above should come as no surprise. There’s a tendency for such during La Nina Octobers, along with that persistent upper ridge placement. That’s not to say there won’t be brief intrusions of cooler air at times, but these will likely be fewer than normal by October standards, and “brief” is the key word.

In the short-term, the 2 primary teleconnections we lean on this time of year (PNA and EPO) don’t suggest there’s any reason to go against the October Nina analogs. Perhaps in the longer range (towards late October and into November), there’s a better window to change the pattern up, but my hunch is the more profound pattern shift doesn’t hit and hold until the 2nd half of November and December.

The MJO in large part is expected to remain in the “null” phase through the bulk of the month, meaning we’ll lean heavier on the PNA and EPO.

With all of that said, we’ll follow suit with a warmer than normal October (bonus warmth) for most of the country, including here in the Ohio Valley. Precipitation is expected to be near average for October (3.22″ is the average for Indianapolis).

No Comments Autumn, Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest21, Long Range Discussion, Monthly Outlook