Updated 04.09.22 @ 8:51a
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Category: Long Range Discussion
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-stunner-of-a-sunday-dialed-up-timing-out-rain-and-storm-chances-in-the-week-ahead-and-looking-at-another-shot-of-winter-like-conditions-week-2/
Apr 07
VIDEO: Long Range Outlook Into Late April…
Updated 04.07.22 @ 8:46p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-long-range-outlook-into-late-april/
Apr 05
Yet Again, Warmth Likely Only A Tease…
Updated 04.05.22 @ 6:48a
We’ve already handled the jab of unseasonable chill and even opportunity for wet snow showers late week so want to focus more on what lies ahead. The idea here has been that a mid month warm up would pave the way to more sustained spring like temperatures for the 2nd half of April. While the mid month warmup is still certainly on track, the longevity and duration of such is now met with a much, much lower confidence.
The good news? A significant warmup is still dialed up next week. (This will be extra sweet coming on the heels of what will be a rough go of things with out of season chill and snow showers later this week). Highs in the 70s and even low 80s are a good bet next week.
A potent frontal system looms late next week that we’ll have to watch for the threat of severe weather. More on that ahead in our shorter term products as we get closer. The passage of this front will also likely usher in another airmass that’s set to run below, to well below normal. Frost potential is alive and kicking week after next (remember we also have to deal with frost/ freeze conditions this upcoming weekend) with this kind of pattern. The NAO takes a negative hit which also supports the temperature reversal from what will be such a warm stretch next week…
Remember, we’re only the messenger…
In the shorter term, today isn’t looking nearly as wet as once thought. There will be a few showers around, but the steadier, more persistent rain will fall to the southeast of central Indiana.
More widespread rain and even a couple embedded storms are slated to impact our neck of the woods Wednesday morning.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/yet-again-warmth-likely-only-a-tease/
Mar 31
Long Range Update: The Roller Coaster That Is Spring…
Updated 03.31.22 @ 7:09a
As we look ahead over the next couple weeks, a rather active pattern is expected to continue, including multiple storm systems that will likely impact our area every few days. This will likely also result in brief but significant spikes of warmth ahead of the system (example: yesterday’s high of 78°) in what otherwise will be a period of cooler than normal conditions.
Despite the active nature of the pattern, precipitation should be pretty close to average through the middle of April, locally. The heavier rainfall, relative to average, will be confined to the Gulf Coast.
It’s been a while since we talked about the MJO and that’s due to it being a non-factor over the past couple weeks residing in the null, or neutral, phase.
Other teleconnections (namely the NAO and EPO) have supported the overall cooler regime of late. However, these drivers are in the process of flipping to states (positive) that will at least likely attempt to drive more sustained warmth our way as we approach mid-April. Modeling may be catching on to that as well. Note when looking at 5-day increments, the ‘mean’ trough position is looking to dump the trough into the West closer to mid April.
Moral of the story is to hang in there. Though we still yet have additional chilly times to get through over the next 10-14 days, there’s reason to begin buying into the potential of more sustained warmth trying to take hold towards mid and late month.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-update-the-roller-coaster-that-is-spring/
Mar 10
VIDEO: Jab Of Late Season Arctic Air Ahead Of A Much Milder Week; Long Range Update Into Late Month…
Updated 03.10.22 @ 7:20a
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