Category Archives: Long Range Discussion

Changes Are Brewing…

Updated 08.15.23 @ 8a

The short-term will continue to be highlighted by unseasonably cool and refreshing air.

However those that aren’t ready to be done with the summer heat are in luck. Significant warming will take place next week. Yes, we’ll replace those cool, crisp overnight lows in the 50s with lows only in the 70s and highs into the lower 90s for multiple days next week as an upper level ridge expands and builds overhead.

Next week will also feature significantly drier and calmer conditions compared to what we’ve seen over the past few weeks. Hot and dry will rule the day, overall. As of now, most of, if not the entire week should be rain-free.

The next question becomes the staying power of the heat as we flip the page into meteorological fall. As a whole, I’m leaning towards at least the first half of fall running well above normal. That doesn’t mean the region isn’t at risk of an early frost threat this year (byproduct of the strengthening Nino event heading into fall and drivers behind what have powered the recent wet times. Speaking of wet, IND is now close to 1.5” above normal month-to-date).

As we push closer towards Labor Day weekend, the long range European data is “cooling” things closer towards seasonal levels after next week’s heat. Hard to disagree with that approach at least for a time before we begin to warm things back up, compared to normal.

No Comments 10-day, Client, Ensemble Discussion, First frost, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Labor Day Weekend, Long Range Discussion, Summer, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Multiple Rounds Of Strong-Severe Storms This Weekend; Autumn Rambles…

Updated 08.05.23 @ 10:20a

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No Comments Autumn, Client, Ensemble Discussion, First frost, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Hail, Harvest23, Heavy Rain, Long Range Discussion, Severe Weather, Summer, T-storms, Tornadoes, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Videos, Windy

Sunday Morning Rambles: Much Less Humid Start To The Week; Updated Thoughts On The August Pattern…

Updated 07.30.23 @ 11:25a

I. We can already feel a difference in the nature of the airmass this morning, but there’s a much bigger push of dry air inbound tonight. By Monday morning, dew points across central Indiana will fall into the 40s and 50s- a far cry from the oppressive “jungle-like” dew points from last week. Talk about a breath of fresh air. The good news in this pleasant airmass will hold through the middle of the week.

A refreshing air mass will filter into the state tonight.

II. While we can’t totally rule out a shower this afternoon, most of the period will remain rain-free between now and Wednesday. Look for plentiful sunshine through this period as well.

Rain and storm chances will return towards the latter part of the week. While we’re not expecting any sort of washout, it’ll be a good idea to have a Plan B in mind from Thursday through the weekend in the event a storm cluster threatens from time to time.

III. Over the next couple weeks, the primary pattern drivers continue to look like a combo of the EPO and PNA- both of which will, for the most part, be in favorable phases to deliver seasonal to slightly cooler than normal conditions across our neck of the woods. At times, it’s appeared like the MJO will start to amplify, but that hasn’t been the case and doesn’t appear to be a big player in our pattern through mid August, at least. Bottom line, our idea is that August features seasonal temperatures, as a whole, with slightly above normal rainfall throughout central Indiana. (For perspective, the average high at IND in August is 84.3° with an average low of 65°. On average, we pick up nearly 3.5″ of rain during any given August).

The most anomalous and long-lasting heat should continue to be featured across Plains and points west with coolest anomalies across the Northeast.

No Comments Client, Dew points, EPO, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Long Range Discussion, MJO, PNA, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles