Category Archives: Long Range Discussion

Endless Summer As We Navigate The Initial Month Of Meteorological Fall…

Updated 08.27.23 @ 6:51a

We’re only a few days away from meteorological fall. Despite what the calendar says, Mother Nature will provide “bonus” heat and plenty of dry times as we rumble through the next few weeks.

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) looks to “wake up” and amplify into the notorious warm phases for September.

The PNA (Pacific North American pattern) is going to crash negative and fits right into the warm pattern driver theme.

Medium and long range modeling shows the upper ridge building and expanding northeast with time over the next couple weeks. Unseasonably hot weather will accompany this pattern evolution.

Widespread drier than normal conditions should also prevail through the upcoming few weeks.

Even as we progress into the final few days of the month, extended long range guidance maintains the warm to hot theme.

It’s really not until we get to October that the pattern should begin to change in more significant fashion and make up for lost time with respect to cool, crisp air…

No Comments Autumn, Client, Ensemble Discussion, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest23, Long Range Discussion, MJO, PNA, Rain, Summer, Unseasonably Warm

Friday Morning Rambles: Taste Of Fall Next Week…

Updated 08.25.23 @ 5:02a

I. It’s about as oppressive as it gets around these parts out the door early this morning. Temperatures will only fall a couple more degrees between now and sunrise before another dangerously hot day ahead. Check out these temperature and heat indices at 4:45a:

II. We’re tracking (2) frontal boundaries that will put an end to this heat and humidity in the coming days. The first front slips through here Saturday and will break the heat wave with a secondary, more robust, push of dry, cool air early next week. While a shower or storm is possible with both FROPAs, widespread rain isn’t expected with either.

III. A taste of fall is on deck as we move through the middle of next week and get set to kick off the Labor Day weekend. How does overnight lows into the 40s sound with highs in the upper 70s? This breath of fresh air will hold into the early part of the Labor Day weekend along with anticipated dry conditions.

IV. We’re not expecting the cool, refreshing air to last as “endless summer” returns shortly after the open to September. In fact, we continue to believe a warmer than normal and drier than average September awaits as we push through the initial month of meteorological fall. The latest European Weeklies, updated last night, for September say the same:

No Comments Autumn, Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest23, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles

Dinnertime Rambles: Labor Day Weekend Chatter; MJO Rumblings…

Updated 08.23.23 @ 6:09p I. Hottest conditions banked up against our far western counties today where temperatures climbed into the middle 90s. Heat indices topped the lower 100s in the…

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No Comments Client, Forecast Discussion, Labor Day Weekend, Long Range Discussion, MJO, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Tropics, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

VIDEO: Pleasant Now But Heat Builds In The Week Ahead; Quick Look At September…

Updated 08.19.23 @ 9:40a

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No Comments Client, Ensemble Discussion, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Tropics, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Videos

Long Range Outlook Flips The Page Into Meteorological Fall…

Updated 08.18.23 @ 4:35a

Despite the blazing heat that awaits in the week ahead, another push of unseasonably cool and refreshing air that we’ll enjoy to open the weekend is a sign that autumn isn’t that far away.

As the El Niño continues to strengthen heading into fall, we’re bullish here at IndyWx.com that an unseasonably warm start to autumn is on tap. While not nearly as hot as what the week ahead will entail, we think we’ll remain close enough to the ‘mean’ upper ridge position to result in at least slightly to moderately above normal temperatures for September as a whole (say in the + 1.5° to + 3° range).

The latest European extended product and JMA Weeklies back this idea up, including a drier than normal look. While we’ll have to be on guard for the potential of ridge rider storm clusters as the ridge retrogrades west at times, the overall pattern through at least mid-September sure appears drier than normal as a whole.

While not quite as toasty, the GFS extended product is also painting a dry regime into mid-September.

From a temperature perspective into mid September, we prefer a blend of what the JMA/ Euro and GFS are suggesting. Again, slightly warmer than normal overall o/ the upcoming 3-4 week period.

As we evolve deeper into September and closer to early October, we believe the threat of an early season cold blast, including frost threat will show up a few weeks earlier than normal this season. This likely won’t be a full scale, permanent shift to cold, but rather a chilly “jolt.” Given the evolving Niño, we’ll have to likely wait until later into October before we have something more meaningful and sustained from a cold weather standpoint. . .

No Comments Autumn, Client, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Harvest23, JMA, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Summer, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm