Updated 09.14.22 @ 10:21p
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Category: Long Range Discussion
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/late-evening-winter-chatter/
Sep 12
JMA Chimes In On Winter, Has Look Of A Fast Start…
Updated 09.12.22 @ 11:02p
The JMA long range (3 month) and seasonal (December through February) data is in and helps increase our confidence in the fast start to winter- for a change. The baseline of our call on a fast start is primarily due to analog research, along with keying in on global SST configurations.
Despite the latest European printing out a head fake from its August update, the JMA is going right to the 500mb look that could lead to all sorts of fun and games as the holidays near.
After a warm look to October (see no reason to disagree with that idea), note how the model begins to flip things around in November (2nd set of images) and December (3rd set of images).
I’ll spend more time tomorrow discussing the JMA updates in a video discussion. In short, another highly respected long range model is keying in on at least the kind of look that would lead to a vastly different close to fall and open to winter over the past couple of years…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/jma-chimes-in-on-winter-has-look-of-a-fast-start/
Sep 11
VIDEO: Shot Of Cool, Autumn-Like, Air To Open The Work Week; Late Season Heat Wave Looms…
Updated 09.11.22 @ 8:45a
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-shot-of-cool-autumn-like-air-to-open-the-work-week-late-season-heat-wave-looms/
Sep 07
Re. Winter ’22-’23: Chatter Around Updated Modeling…
Updated 09.07.22 @ 7:22a
Now that we’re past Labor Day and the days are becoming noticeably shorter, there’s increased interest in what the upcoming winter may include. In case you missed it during the hustle and bustle of the summer, we’ve laid out some initial thoughts here:
Our complete and finalized annual IndyWx.com Winter Outlook will be issued in October.
Now, onto the details from the updated European Seasonal (updates at the beginning of each month). Simply put, taken at face value, the “trend isn’t your friend” if you’re a fan of a quick start to winter. The model has really pulled back on the bullish look from its previous update regarding the December 500mb pattern. The model suggests another blow torch of a December is upon us. (Note last December, Indianapolis finished nearly a whopping 9° above average).
However, things do begin to change as we head into the new year. Note the reflection of a downstream (eastern trough) trying to be shown on the model. One could easily make an argument that if we do, indeed, go to this look at the upper levels, the surface temperatures would be significantly colder than what’s currently being modeled (meaning on or the other is likely to be wrong here: either the 500mb look or the model not being able to see cold).
By the time we get into the last month of met. winter (Feb), the model is keying in on a pull back of the said trough and resulting in a much warmer regime across the eastern portion of the country (relative to average, of course).
Despite some of the changes (most notably to December) from the previous model update, we don’t see any reason to throw the analog research from back in the summer in the trash just yet. Yes, that’s in the face of recent trends not being fond of the fast start to winter. The average December temperature in Indianapolis is 33.3°. We have to go back to December of ’17- weak La Nina in place (30.2°) and December of ’16 – a moderate El Nino (30.3°) to find our last “colder than average” Decembers.
Finally, it should be noted we don’t lean on one particular model when formulating our winter outlook. Like any longer range, seasonal forecast, we blend multiple models together, compile analog data, and do extensive research of sea surface temperature configurations across the globe before publishing our final product. Needless to say, we have a lot of work left to do for this year’s version.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/re-winter-22-22-chatter-around-updated-modeling/
Sep 05
Happy Labor Day: Getting To Be That Time Of Year Where Cold Fronts Become A Bit More Potent; Mid-September Pattern Evolution…
Updated 09.05.22 @ 8:45a
I hope this finds you enjoying a relaxing Labor Day. Below are some headlines that have our attention as we progress through the week ahead and look forward to the middle of September.
1.) Brighter Days Ahead: Our region has been under the influence of an area of low pressure and associated upper level trough for the past few days. Unfortunately, gloomy skies will prevail today along with scattered slow moving downpours. While everyone won’t get wet, those that do find themselves under one of these convective downpours could easily pick up a quick 1″+ of rain in under an hour. Thankfully, a drier airmass will begin to build in Tuesday before really taking hold in earnest Wednesday through Friday. This will deliver an increasingly sunny sky and lower humidity levels.
2.) Potent Weekend Cold Front: When the calendar turns to September, we always have to start paying a little more attention to approaching cold fronts. That, of course, becomes even more the case the deeper into the fall season we go. The fall severe weather season occasionally rivals that of the spring around these parts and temperature changes become more significant as the days go by. This weekend will feature the 1st true autumn-like frontal passage of the young meteorological fall season.
Ahead of the boundary, southerly winds will pull an increasingly moist and unstable airmass northward (you’ll really notice a difference in the airmass Friday morning compared to that of Saturday morning). It also wouldn’t surprise me if the Storm Prediction Center is forced to hoist a risk of severe weather across the Ohio Valley Saturday, including here in Indiana. The front is expected to sweep through the state Sunday morning and then we’ll deal with a brief, but significant, “pop” of much cooler, drier air (coolest so far of the season) as we open up next week.
3.) Mid-September Warm Up…Despite the aforementioned “pop” of cooler air to open up next week, all indications continue to point towards another significant warmup with a building ridge over our part of the country as we head into the middle of September. In fact, don’t be shocked if we’re still not quite done with the 90s for the year…
As it sits right now, it appears as if the heat will really start to build towards the end of next week and into the weekend of the 17th. Based on longer range pattern drivers, the balance of the 2nd half of September should run above normal.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/happy-labor-day-getting-to-be-that-time-of-year-where-cold-fronts-become-a-bit-more-potent-mid-september-pattern-evolution/