Category: Long Range Discussion

May 22

Indy Weather Recap And A Look Ahead

Wednesday was a stormy day across central Indiana, including damaging wind and hail. Flooding was also a concern in some areas.  Officially here at IndyWx.com HQ we picked up 2.21″ of rain Wednesday- most of which fell in a 3 hour time period.  Here’s a cool image from the fine folks at Weatherbell Analytics showcasing the heaviest rainfall.

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Despite a couple of showers (primarily south of the city) later this evening the upcoming three days will be beautiful and rain-free!

hrrr_ref_indy_5

Temperatures are trending cooler when compared to 24 hours ago and as noted here by the 24 temperature difference, the cooler air to our north will continue to push south tonight.

t0

Temperatures and humidity levels will be below normal levels the next couple days before warmth slowly builds Sunday.  Lows Saturday morning will dip into the upper 40s for several communities.

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True summer-like heat and humidity will lift north Memorial Day into Tuesday.  Note the temperature anomalies do an about face from Day 1 to Day 5.  Heat and humidity will be on the rebound for the unofficial start to summer, but, as noted above, should remain in the “comfy range” for race day.

D1

D5

With the increasing warmth and humidity will come a return of scattered shower and thunderstorm chances early next week.

As we look forward to early June, there are indications it could open on the warm side.  Note relative agreement between the CFSv2 (Climate Forecast System version 2), NAEFS, and Physical Science Division model.  Does the warm pattern stick and hold?  Not so fast, my friend… 😉

2014052212_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186wk1.wk2_20140521.NAsfcTt850_anom_f288_ussm

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Apr 22

Lots Of Weather To Talk About…

There are growing concerns about quite the rainy and cold close to April and open to May. We’ll discuss that in a bit. The month so far has been cold…

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Mar 22

Where We’ve Been And Where We’re Going…

It was a cold winter across the Lower 48, including Indiana:

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March has followed suite, month-to-date:  Cold continues for the majority of the upcoming week, but we note moderating late week temperatures.

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It’s been dry as of late, but after a snowy winter, the region is doing just fine from a drought perspective.  We note abnormally dry conditions west:

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Latest CFSv2 data points to a wet spring ahead.  We also note the latest European weeklies suggesting a potentially “busy” 1st half of April, including a couple of “bowling ball” systems of note.  With the changing seasons, it’s not unusual to see big spring cut off lows slowly moving through portions of the country.

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Note the GFS (7-day) and Canadian (10-day) precipitation forecast:

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We also are still forecasting light snow Tuesday.  Most of this won’t accumulate with the high sun angle and low snowfall rates, but a brief coating to less than an inch is possible in spots:

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Mar 04

Video Update On The Mid Month Storm Brewing…

We wanted to take the time to quickly update you on a couple of very minor events in here tomorrow evening and again Saturday.  Additionally, we’re monitoring the prospects of…

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Feb 23

Looking Ahead; Cold Pattern Reloads.

We’ll have your updated 7-Day forecast posted later today.

The latest mid and long range guidance continues to suggest we’re heading into another prolonged period of below normal temperatures.

Ensemble data (below) shows ridging in the northeast Pacific, extending into Alaska and this pattern has been one of the big reasons as to why we’ve dealt with so many arctic intrusions this winter.  (The first image is a look at the upper air pattern dated Feb. 26th and the second is dated March 11th).

Ridging in this particular part of the globe often times dislodges the cold air and someone “down stream” has to deal with below normal air.  The recipient of being “down stream” has just so happened to be the upper Mid West into the Ohio Valley and much of the eastern half of the country this winter.  That doesn’t show any signs of changing over the next couple weeks, at least.  It’s possible we could deal with a day or two of milder weather thrown in the mix, but the overwhelming majority of the upcoming couple weeks looks much colder than normal.

GEFS1GEFS2

The result is a continuation of much below normal cold in our part of the country.  The following graphics illustrate temperature anomalies (in celsius) centered on 5 days between Feb. 23rd-28th and March 6th-11th.  Below normal temperatures continue.

GEFS3GEFS4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A couple of additional thoughts around the upcoming cold pattern: While we can’t show the images here (license issues), the “secret” European weeklies and ensemble data continues the cold, stormy regime across the east for the better part of the upcoming 30 days, with a couple of brief periods of milder, “calmer” weather.

Finally, the CFSv2 suggests the cold regime continues, as well.  The first image shows upcoming weeks 1 and 2 and the second shows temperature anomalies weeks 3 and 4.  Note the CFSv2 shows southeast ridging developing towards the end of the period, potentially suggesting a big fight goes on between the cold to the north and the budding spring conditions to the south- a stormy suggestion…

CFSv2Wk1:2CFSv2Wk3:4

In closing, it’s important to note that all of the fancy graphics shown above are simply model guidance and it’s up to us, the forecasters, to interpret the data the best way possible to put together the most accurate mid to long range ideas for you, the viewer.  While nothing is a guarantee in this business, it does appear as if chances are quite high that our region deals with another few weeks of colder than normal conditions and potentially active weather ahead.  Stay tuned.

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