Category: Long Range Discussion

Jun 24

Hot Weekend Coming, But We’re Set To Cool Going Into The Holiday…

The pattern continues to look as if it’ll evolve in a way that will assist in delivering the hottest air so far this year during the course of the upcoming weekend into early next week.  That said, the seeds are once again being planted that should promote a trough and associated cooler than normal pattern returning as we head closer to the Independence Day holiday.

In short, an active and progressive pattern is set to continue across our immediate neck of the woods.  This promises a continuation of above average precipitation and while shots of hot air will invade from time to time, it’s going to be mighty tough to get any sort of hot pattern to stick around for any sort of staying power over the course of the upcoming couple weeks.

In the short-term, we’ll enjoy a couple of cooler, drier days for the mid week stretch, but ridging will build this weekend into the middle part of next week and we should have no problem reaching the hottest levels of the year so far.  Note, however, how the upper pattern reverses and allows a trough to develop over the Lakes and Ohio Valley by Day 10, or the Independence Day holiday.

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There’s relatively good agreement between the GFS and European during the 8-10 day period with the trough and associated cooler pattern returning.

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The NAEFS and CFSv2 highlight the warmer than normal pattern giving way to cooling week 2.

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The GFS ensembles show the transient regime ahead.  Note the warming giving way to cooling and then warming again towards week 3.  Again, this is a good indication of wetter than normal conditions as well across a good portion of the Mid West and Ohio Valley.

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To sum things up, the hottest air so far this year will likely move into the Hoosier state early next week and feature a day or two of 90 degrees +.  The heat won’t have staying power as a trough and associated cooler air mass will return heading into the Independence Day holiday, and could potentially be highlighted by a round of gusty storms as the heat gives way to cooling.  We’ll have to keep an eye on this as we draw closer.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/hot-weekend-coming-but-were-set-to-cool-going-into-the-holiday/

Jun 16

Monday Morning Weather Rambles…

Walking out the door this morning feels dramatically different than what we’ve enjoyed over the weekend!  Not only are humidity levels much higher, but temperatures are 15-20 degrees warmer than what they were this time 24 hours ago across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.

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With the increased warmth and humidity, it’s not going to take much to kick scattered showers and thunderstorms off.  That’s exactly what we’re seeing across central Indiana this morning.  Locally heavy downpours are possible under any of the stronger storms.

Look at the Northeast region radar snapped at 8am, courtesy of the Penn State e-wall site:

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As for precipitation amounts, it still appears as if we’re in a wetter than normal regime over the next couple weeks.  As of this morning, we’re officially running 1.56″ above normal at IND year-to-date.  A look over a blend of GFS, Euro, and Canadian would imply widespread 2-3″ amounts over the upcoming two weeks, with locally heavier totals where local downpours occur.  This is NOT what one wanting a hot pattern to lock in wants to hear.

While warmth and humidity will be the story this week, we still think we turn cooler to wrap up June.  We’ve been talking about a cooler than normal pattern developing for late month and latest guidance continues to suggest that thinking has merit.  Much more later!  BTW- your 7-day forecast can be found here.

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_240wk1.wk2_20140615.NAsfcT z500_anom_f192_ussm

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/monday-morning-weather-rambles-2/

Jun 12

Thursday Morning Long Range Outlook…

Good morning!  We’ll have your full, updated, 7-day forecast posted here later this evening!  We wanted to discuss a few of the weather highlights as we move forward the next week, and beyond!

1.  A cold front will move through tonight and early Friday.  A shower or thunderstorm is possible as the front moves through, but won’t be a huge deal. Best rain/ storm chances appear to be across eastern portions of the region.

2.  Temperatures and humidity values will be at levels simply as pleasant as you can ask for this time of year Friday and Saturday.  Upper 60s to lower 70s during the afternoon and overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.  Hint of fall before true summer even begins?!  I’ll take it!

3.  Heat and humidity builds next week with ridging, but we continue to think this is a transient type pattern and seeds are already being planted for cooler times once past June 20th.  A couple days of 90 degree heat are possible mid to late next week.  Furthermore, with all of the moisture in the ground, humidity levels will be oppressive.  In other words, it turns hot and humid next week, but nothing too unusual for this time of year.  Like so many other times it’s tried to get hot this year, it seems as if the seeds for cooler are already being seen.

Lets examine some of the mid to long range model data.  We’ll start with a look at the 500 mb pattern off the GFS reforecast product from the Physical Science Division (PSD).  Note the riding that develops next week, but also note the trough and associated cooler pattern showing up just after the 20th.

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The GFS ensembles show the warmth (they still aren’t representing the warmth to the magnitude in which we’re going to see in my opinion, but you get the overall idea) next week and the coming cooler pattern around, and after, the 20th, relative to normal.

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The Canadian NAEFS product is next, outlining the temperature anomalies 6/20-6/27.  Note the warmer temperatures relative to normal (represented by the reds and orange hues) shifting off the east coast and the cooler temperatures (blue shades) developing and spreading east through the center of the country.

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Finally, let’s look at the CFSv2 weeks 3-4 product.  Again, we admit this model can be erratic at times, but we feel like it has a good handle on the coming pattern, as well, in this particular case.  The greens show the cooler than average pattern anticipated as we go through the back 7-10 days of June.

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As we close, it should also be noted that the overall active and wetter than normal pattern looks to continue as we put a wrap to the month of June.  We’re already off to a near-record pace for June rainfall across central Indiana and while we’ll have some dry days, the overall theme remains an active and wet one in the weeks ahead.

Much more with your full 7-day forecast later this evening!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thursday-morning-weather-rambles-2/

Jun 10

Tuesday Evening Video Update!

Good evening and thank you for logging onto IndyWx.com!  Tonight’s video covers the unsettled time of things tonight into Wednesday morning as low pressure continues to have a hold on our area’s weather.  Also, we talk long range weather and give you an idea of what you can expect for the rest of the month of June, temperature-wise!  While we didn’t get into the precipitation side of things in tonight’s video for late month, I will say it continues to look very unsettled with above average rainfall anticipated to wrap up the month of June.  Anywhere from an additional 3-5″ of rain is possible as we go through the rest of the month here across central Indiana.

While the CFSv2 can be a bit erratic at times, we feel the model has a good handle on the way the overall pattern will evolve late June into July.

While the CFSv2 can be a bit erratic at times, we feel the model has a good handle on the way the overall pattern will evolve late June into July.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-evening-video-update/

May 27

Another Nice Weekend In The Middle Of An Unsettled Pattern…

The upcoming 7-10 days looks unsettled overall and quite wet.  That said, we’re set to enjoy another beautiful weekend with a refreshing northeast breeze in play.  We discuss this and look deeper into the month of June in this evening’s video update below!

Latest model data suggests widespread 2-3" of rain could fall across central Indiana over the course of the upcoming 7-10 days.

Latest model data suggests widespread 2-3″ of rain could fall across central Indiana over the course of the upcoming 7-10 days.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/another-nice-weekend-in-the-middle-of-an-unsettled-pattern/