Category Archives: Long Range Discussion

6-10 Day Update: Active Times Ahead…

While we’re in the process of pulling out of the bitterly cold air mass, there’s no shortage of action when we look ahead at the upcoming couple of weeks.

Confidence remains high that the upcoming short-term period (Days 2-6) will flip to much warmer than average. A couple days that at least flirt with the 60 degree mark can be expected Sunday and Monday.

While rain will return to the forecast Monday, the milder air sure will be a nice change of pace from the bitterness of the past several days. Enjoy it!

With that said, there are continued indications that the warmth won’t hold.

As we look at the latest medium range ensemble guidance (Days 6-10), the GEFS and EPS are in relatively good agreement.

We note this is a pattern conducive for above normal precipitation during the period. With cold air likely to be “pressing” towards the region, it’s a pattern that has to raise an eyebrow for at least the potential of a wintry threat during this time frame. There should be plenty of low level cold air available late next week and next weekend. With the resistance shown from the SE ridge, potential “fun and games” are on the table during this timeframe as waves of energy likely ride along a slow (at times stalled) frontal boundary.

Keep an eye on the 2/7 through 2/10 window for possible wintry impacts, locally…

5 Comments 10-day, Arctic Cold, Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Long Range Discussion, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Long Range: Cold Pattern Isn’t Going Anywhere Fast…

We’ll save our short-term discussions for the severe and high-impact arctic outbreak on deck and focus our attention in this post to the upcoming several weeks. In short, we don’t expect the cold pattern to break anytime soon. Could there be a day or two of “relaxation?” Yes, but from an overall perspective, confidence is higher than normal on the colder than average pattern continuing through the month of February.

Let’s dig in to the teleconnections:

EPO

AO

NAO

PNA


Given the teleconnections in agreement pointing towards a cold pattern, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the majority of data is also on the cold train as we flip the page into February:

CFSv2 Weeklies

Weeks 1 & 2

Weeks 3 & 4

JMA Weekly

GEFS

While we aren’t licensed to show the European Weeklies, the new update runs with a cold pattern into early March. This falls in line with the overall consensus of longer range data, backed up by teleconnections.

Though not nearly at the amplitude of a few weeks ago, the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is forecast to move through Phases 5 and 6 in the coming weeks before going back into the “null” phase.


Phases 5 and 6 this time of year would suggest colder anomalies are more likely around our neck of the woods:

Given the above, we continue to think a colder than average “2nd half” of winter looms for the region. We lean heavily on the NAO, EPO, and AO state(s) this time of year and all would point towards a cold time of things moving forward, overall. The latest European Weeklies are interesting from a couple of fronts- initially very cold and then progressively stormy. The idea here is that we remain quite wintry through February and into early March before this pattern breaks. While we may not see a “repeat” visit of the Vortex, it wouldn’t surprise us to see another major arctic outbreak again this winter (after next week), but that likely comes later, and towards the end of the game before we snap into spring.

Buckle up; we think we have a long way to go this winter…

No Comments AO, Arctic Cold, CFSv2, EPO, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, JMA, Long Range Discussion, NAO, PNA, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weekly Outlook, Winter Storm, Winter thoughts...

6-10 Day Outlook: Significant Winter Event Looms…

The 6-10 day period will likely be dominated by an air mass of arctic origin, and the potential is present for the period to begin with a rather significant winter event.  Models have occasionally “teased” the idea of dropping the PV (Polar Vortex) over the Great Lakes during this period, and that’s not something that’s off the table given the pattern here.  Suffice it to say, we expect this period to run much colder than average.

While there will be some specifics we’ll have to sort through as time gets closer, this is remarkable model agreement when looking at the GFS and European ensemble sets in the medium term.

We’ve been discussing the opportunity where we see the flow slow enough to allow one or two of these clipper systems in the medium to longer range to deepen into a stronger storm system.  That may be the case late weekend into early parts of next week and it’s something we’re keeping a close eye on.  In addition to measurable snow, the potential is on the table for notable cold in the 6-10 day period, including multiple days below zero.  In the extreme, this is the type pattern that could lead to double digit below zero  cold across central Indiana- not including the wind chill.

Stay tuned.

No Comments 10-day, Arctic Cold, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Long Range Discussion, Severe Weather, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather