Mar 21
Updated 03.21.24 @ 7a The area will receive a glancing blow from our late week low pressure “tag team” that will deliver light rain Friday (most areas will be under…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-light-rain-returns-friday-cooler-wetter-than-normal-pattern-anticipated-o-the-next-2-3-weeks/
Mar 16
Updated 03.16.24 @ 7:55a
Indianapolis is running right at average month to date from a rainfall perspective (1.78”).
We’re transitioning to a much drier pattern in the week ahead as a cooler, Canadian airmass dominates (for a change).
Several hard freezes (mid-upper 20s) are on tap in the upcoming 7-10 day period: Monday/ Tuesday morning and again late next week/ next weekend.
Cooler? Yes, but I still don’t see anything overly cold on the horizon as we navigate the next couple of weeks.
What’s more notable is the shift in the precipitation pattern over the next few weeks. The dry Week 1 (now) transitions to a significantly wetter and more active look Week 2 (below).
The JMA also sees the wetter regime.
This is forecast to continue in the Weeks 3/4 timeframe.
Continues to back up the idea of an active (wet) and stormy (more in the way of severe weather) spring as a whole.
Down the road, an eventual move into a hot, dry (compared to normal) summer may loom. (Yet one that is very active from a tropical perspective, continuing into the fall). More on that in the coming weeks…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-report-cooler-drier-week-1-turns-wetter-to-close-march-open-april/
Mar 09
Updated 03.09.24 8:14a
It’s been a very warm March. So far, Indianapolis is running nearly 13° above the average month-to-date.
In the short-term (Week 1), the pattern will remain on the milder side of normal.
That all begins to change as we move into Week 2.
This is largely driven by the MJO sprinting through the traditionally warm phases for this time of year into the colder Phase 8 late month.
The temperature composite analog for MJO Phase 8 in March during an El Nino season:
Strikingly similar to what we see above on the Week 2 charts, huh?
The teleconnection suite aligns towards a cold look by Week 2.
A potentially more significant storm system looms late next week or over St. Patrick’s Day weekend to usher in the pattern change. Otherwise, with a colder pattern than normal settling in Week 2, this will also likely lead to a drier airmass and subsequent opportunity to dry out after a wetter than normal open to March (also of note is that we’re running a little more than 1″ above normal, year-to-date).
No way to be specific with details from this distance, but given the look to the overall pattern, I’d be surprised if we end the month without an opportunity of a little wet snow with the colder transition.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-report-period-opens-with-more-of-the-same-but-cooler-than-normal-for-a-change-late-month/
Mar 08
Updated 03.08.24 @ 7:50a “Showery” weather through the early to mid afternoon will give way to an increasingly heavier rain by evening, continuing through the overnight. This is all thanks…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-rain-increases-in-intensity-by-evening-mjo-influences-on-the-longer-range/
Feb 29
Updated 02.29.24 @ 5:13a
Tomorrow we’ll welcome in meteorological spring and the first couple weeks of March appear to continue the unseasonably warm trend. At times, additional warm records will likely fall.
This is strongly correlated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation highly amplified in the classic warm phases this time of year. (You can absolutely say goodbye to any sort of sustained cold prospects this time of year with the MJO in phases 4, 5, and especially 6). Now, down the road, we’ll want to watch and see if we can maintain this amplitude and rumble into the transitional colder Phase 7 before a potential opportunity to see cold grow more impressive should we *finally get into Phase 8 late month. Remember that we made an attempt at that back in mid-February before things instead collapsed into the neutral phase. Moral of the story for folks longing for one more bout of sustained cold prior to the warmer months ahead, “don’t hold your breath.” The trend certainly isn’t your friend.
Back to the present. No matter what the teleconnections say, an amplified MJO will always win out. And the current MJO forecast to roll through the phases listed above screams that our recent warm times will “keep on keepin’ on” as we navigate the 1st half of March.
The Phase 5 and Phase 6 composite analogs at 500mb (upper air pattern) for an El Niño March:
What this should also result in is an active first half of the month, including above normal rainfall and likely at least another early season strong to severe weather event before we get to mid month.
It’s a classic pattern that should feature low pressure systems ejecting out of the Southwest and South-central into the Plains and western Great Lakes region. That puts our neck of the woods on the warm/ wet (and at times stormy) side of the equation.
As we move into late-March and early April, we’ll have our eyes focused on the MJO and whether or not we can, indeed, get into those traditionally colder phases. Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-report-warm-open-to-meteorological-spring-mjo-and-nao-impacts-longer-term/