Updated 07.21.23 @ 7:26a
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Category: Long Range Discussion
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/21/video-breath-of-fresh-air-to-open-the-weekend-heat-builds-for-a-time-next-week-discussing-staying-power/
Jul 16
Sunday Morning Rambles: Another Round Of Strong Storms And Lack Of Significant Heat Grab Headlines…
Updated 07.16.23 @ 7:44a
I. More of that good ole Canadian wild fire smoke is making for a hazy start to our day but thankfully all else is quiet. Unfortunately that won’t remain the case as we progress into the afternoon and evening hours. We’ll watch for darkening skies towards the mid to late afternoon and some potent storms will likely fire up by evening. A couple of these could pulse to severe levels and include a damaging wind and hail threat.
II. A cold front will take aim on the region from the northwest as we kick off the new work week. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of this boundary Monday afternoon and evening. Like this evening, a few of the storms will likely turn strong to severe (damaging wind and large hail the greatest concerns with the stronger cells).
III. The cold front will push south of our region Tuesday morning before stalling along the Ohio River. Rain and storm chances should shift downstate Tuesday as a drier brand of air takes hold for the northern half of the state. Dew points into the 50s are always nice in July, heh?!
IV. A secondary front will blow through the state as we wrap up the work week and help to reinforce the unseasonably refreshing airmass going into next weekend. Lows will likely even dip into the 50s at night.
That brings us to our closing point and that’s the lack of any sort of significant heat. In fact, it’s just the opposite over the next couple weeks. The general thinking is the cooler than normal regime will likely make up the bulk of August as well, especially if we can sneak into Phase 5-6 of the MJO.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/16/sunday-morning-rambles-another-round-of-strong-storms-and-lack-of-significant-heat-grab-headlines/
Jul 08
Soggy Saturday Morning; Long Range Pattern Update…
Updated 07.08.23 @ 8:35a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/08/soggy-saturday-morning-long-range-pattern-update/
Jul 06
VIDEO: Pleasant Close To The Work Week; Recent Wet Pattern Shift Looks To Hold Through July…
Updated 07.06.23 @ 7:50a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/06/video-pleasant-close-to-the-work-week-recent-wet-pattern-shift-looks-to-hold-through-july/
Jul 04
Brief Break In The Pattern Gives Us Time To Look Ahead To The Remainder Of Met. Summer; Open To Autumn…
Updated 07.04.23 @ 6:14a
There’s something about the 4th of July that signals a shift within. It’s been this way for me since back in the high school days. Back then, the following week meant 2-a-days were beginning as a new football season was only a few weeks away. Fast forward to today, and I understand some of the big box retailers are preparing to display their fall and Halloween decor over the next couple weeks. SEC Media Days, the unofficial “official” start of the college football season gets rolling in Nashville on July 17th. Heck, before you know it, we’ll be producing our annual winter outlook.
Okay, back to present.
As the Nino continues to mature, we believe the rest of meteorological summer (through end of month August) continues to keep any significant or long lasting heat away from our neck of the woods. In addition, the dry stretch that typically develops at some point each and every summer is also behind us. Simply put, the next 6-7 weeks appear to run near normal from a temperature standpoint and slightly above to above normal from a precipitation perspective. Overall, I prefer to lean on the latest JMA monthly product.
July
Temperatures
Precipitation
August
Temperatures
Precipitation
As we look ahead to autumn, the early call is for a warmer than normal open to fall as a whole. Certainly fits the bill with recent autumn trends…
We note both the JMA and latest European Seasonal product going towards this mild look. More on the entire fall seasonal outlook over the next few weeks.
From our family to yours, we’re wishing you a blessed Independence Day! A fresh batch of storms arrive later Wednesday and our short-term update later tonight will handle the latest look there.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/04/brief-break-in-the-pattern-gives-us-time-to-look-ahead-to-the-remainder-of-met-summer-open-to-autumn/
Jun 30
VIDEO: Dramatic Change In The Overall Pattern To Wet; Active Holiday Weekend With Multiple Rounds Of Storms…
Updated 06.30.23 @ 7:40a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/06/30/video-dramatic-change-in-the-overall-pattern-to-wet-active-holiday-weekend-with-multiple-rounds-of-storms/
Jun 29
Busy, Busy, Busy; Tracking Multiple Storm Clusters And Heavy Rain Into Next Week…
Updated 06.29.23 @ 7:50a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/06/29/busy-busy-busy-tracking-multiple-storm-clusters-and-heavy-rain-into-next-week/
Jun 28
VIDEO: Transitioning Into A Wet, Stormy Pattern; Reviewing Long Range Guidance Into The Last Month Of Meteorological Summer…
Updated 06.28.23 @ 7:45a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/06/28/video-transitioning-into-a-wet-stormy-pattern-reviewing-long-range-guidance-into-the-last-month-of-meteorological-summer/
Jun 22
Digging Our Heels Into The Pattern Over The Next 2 Weeks…
Updated 06.22.23 @ 4:45a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/06/22/digging-our-heels-into-the-pattern-over-the-next-2-weeks/
Jun 17
VIDEO: Gorgeous Saturday; Tropical Interests And Rain Chances…
Updated 06.17.23 @ 9:23a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/06/17/video-gorgeous-saturday-tropical-interests-and-rain-chances/