Apr 11
Updated 04.11.24 @ 7:39a Masters Thursday will be a wash-out up this way. Thankfully, down at Augusta, GA we’re talking about better weather- at least relatively speaking. 🙂 Additional showers…
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Apr 05
Updated 04.05.24 @ 7:16a
The overall chilly and unsettled pattern of late should show rather marked improvement not only over the short-term, but longer range, as well.
The teleconnection suite (AO, NAO, PNA, and EPO) over the next couple weeks is aligned in a manner that should promote less of an anomalous 500mb look, locally (deep eastern trough we’ve been dealing with).
If we’re able to sneak into MJO Phase 6, then a warmer “lean” would be required by mid and late April. As always, we’ll keep an eye on those trends as the majority of data keeps the MJO in the neutral phase.
The thought here is that a milder and drier overall regime will take hold over the course of the next few weeks, certainly compared to late. That said, given the pattern drivers noted above, I also want to reiterate that we shouldn’t see rain or temperatures that differ significantly from average (rather only slightly above in the temperature department and slightly below in the precipitation department over the upcoming 4 week period). Further west, the better chance of more in the way of significantly above normal temperatures (primarily in the Plains).
The latest European and JMA Weeklies agree on this overall idea.
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Upcoming 4-week rainfall anomalies
The JMA Weeklies also show a similar story.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-report-pattern-evolution-into-late-april-early-may/
Apr 01
Updated 04.01.24 @ 11:28a
I. Things will turn quite active later tonight and into our Tuesday. Multiple rounds of heavy rain and strong thunderstorms will track across central Indiana. As heavy rain trains over the same area, localized flooding will develop Tuesday morning into the afternoon hours.
A threat of severe weather is also present, including large hail and even a couple tornadoes. Given the current parameters, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the fine folks at the Storm Prediction Center expand the current risk zones a bit further north for both the Day 1 and Day 2 outlooks. We’re still tracking a potential line of severe weather Tuesday PM after the multiple rounds in the morning. We’ll want to remain weather-aware tonight and Tuesday across central Indiana.
II. Much colder air will pour in here Wednesday and as the closed upper level low swings through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, a renewed area of precipitation will expand across the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Rain will mix with and even change to wet snow in spots across central Indiana during this time. Heavier wet snow bursts will lead to slushy accumulation on grassy surfaces.
Northwest winds will result in lowered visibility and a harsh feel (given the time of year) with wind chills into the 10s and 20s at times.
III. While we’ll briefly dry out in the 6-10 day, the pattern continues to present an active look down the road, including above normal rainfall projected in the Week 2 timeframe through the Plains and into the mid South and western Great Lakes region.
All in all, we don’t see any extended periods of dry weather on the horizon over the next few weeks as a whole.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/lunchtime-rambles-flooding-wind-whipped-snow-midweek-and-looking-ahead-to-an-opportunity-for-a-briefly-calmer-window/
Mar 29
Updated 03.29.24 @ 6:57a
Don’t get used to any one particular pattern for any length of time over the next few weeks. “Active” will sum things up best in a single word as a transitional regime takes hold.
The NEW JMA Weeklies highlight this transitional theme best over the upcoming (4) week period.
Week 1
Week 2
Weeks 3/4
To no surprise, especially given the transitional nature of the pattern, the upcoming few weeks should feature above normal rainfall for a good chunk of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
We’ll also want to keep tabs on the potential of greater than average severe weather episodes, notable considering we’re almost into April. It’s a byproduct of the “topsy-turvy” look to the overall pattern.
Pattern drivers, including the EPO, back up the transitional them over the upcoming couple weeks. Reminder, negative phase favors chilly conditions and positive phases favor milder air (compared to average). This look, too, screams wet and stormy.
Bottom line, buckle up for an active storm track and associated heavier than normal rainfall over the next few weeks. Temperature regimes will feature a bit of it all, including above and below normal periods, likely all balancing out slightly above normal when all is added up.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-report-active-pattern-as-we-head-into-and-through-april/
Mar 23
Updated 03.23.24 @ 10:51a A quiet weekend will turn more active as we open the new work week. We’re tracking this system and another storm late in the week. Both…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-weekend-sunshine-tracking-2-storm-systems-in-the-week-ahead-and-looking-at-the-early-april-pattern/