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Category: JMA
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/04/25/special-evening-video-update-on-next-weeks-flood-threat/
Mar 28
Thursday Evening Video: Wet Open To The Weekend Before A Cold Finish; Reviewing The New JMA Weeklies…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/28/thursday-evening-video-wet-open-to-the-weekend-before-a-cold-finish-reviewing-the-new-jma-weeklies/
Mar 21
More On The Late March-Early April Pattern And Reviewing The NEW JMA Weeklies…
As we look ahead, a persistent western Canada/ Alaska ridge continues to show up on the medium to long range data. The downstream implications are for cooler than normal temperatures, overall, across the eastern and central portions of the country into early April.
Given the time of the year (and pattern), cool won’t rule the entire period. It’s just that the cold will “out do” the transient warmth in between storm systems over the next couple of weeks.
When we look at the teleconnections (combo of negative EPO and neutral to slightly positive PNA is ruling the day for now), they support the lingering chill into early-April.
However, as we turn the page from early-April to mid-April, the idea here is that an eastern ridge will begin to expand west with more “umph” and eventually lead to warmth overwhelming the pattern. We aren’t budging from the original idea of a warmer than normal April by month’s end. It sure appears as if the NEW JMA Weeklies are catching onto this idea.
From a precipitation perspective, the majority of medium and long range model data does show a return of wetter times (relative to normal) as we move into April, including an active storm track. The beginning of this overall shift in the pattern back towards wetter than normal conditions will begin early next week.
We’ll recap our latest short-term thinking, including an update on the NEW European Weeklies that will arrive this evening later tonight in a video update.
In the meantime, make it a fantastic Thursday- and happy tip off to March Madness!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/21/more-on-the-late-march-early-april-pattern-and-reviewing-the-new-jma-weeklies/
Mar 14
Long Range Update: Cool “Set Back” Doesn’t Last; Looking Ahead To April…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/14/long-range-update-cool-set-back-doesnt-last-looking-ahead-to-april/
Mar 07
Long Range Video Update: Changeable Pattern For The 2nd Half Of March Into April…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/07/long-range-video-update-changeable-pattern-for-the-2nd-half-of-march-into-april/
Feb 28
Reviewing The New JMA Weeklies; Do We Pull Out Of The Unseasonably Cold Pattern Later In March?
The updated JMA Weeklies are in and we wanted to take a moment to review those with you this morning. A more extensive long range post will arrive tonight. In addition, we’ll also have an updated video discussion around the potential (and increasing likelihood) of a winter storm this weekend later this evening.
Week 1
In agreement with the majority of the other data, the model overwhelms the pattern with unseasonably cold air. Note the anomalous pattern, including strong AK ridge that is helping “dislodge” the late season arctic air. The other item that stands out? The southeast ridge is no longer (for now).
Week 2
Cold is forecast to linger in the Week 2 timeframe, but it’s beginning to modify from the early month bitter shot. Secondly, the high latitude pattern has completely reversed from Week 1 (note the lower heights) and the southeast ridge is showing signs of re-emerging.
Weeks 3-4
Eastern ridging is shown during the mid to late month stretch and gives further reason to believe our mid month warm-up idea has merit. With this, the model also delivers an overall wetter pattern for the 2nd half of the month.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/28/reviewing-the-new-jma-weeklies-do-we-pull-out-of-the-unseasonably-cold-pattern-later-in-march/
Feb 16
2019 Spring Outlook…
2019 IndyWx.com Spring Outlook
Forecaster: Team; Date Issued: 02.16.19
Last spring was a tale of two seasons in itself. March (featured a foot of snow) and April were significantly colder than normal and then we shifted things to summer in May (the last month of meteorological spring was close to 10 degrees above normal). As a whole, it was a quiet severe weather season.
Despite the wild swings, at the end of the day, things “balanced out” nicely across the central Ohio Valley, including central Indiana.
As we look ahead to what the 2019 version holds, here are a few headlines that have our attention:
I. Weak Nino is behaving more like a Nina (Tropical Northern Hemisphere pattern can be thanked for this).
II. Neutral NAO is expected
III. Neutral PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)
In addition, we’re paying special attention to the SST configuration in the Gulf of Mexico. A warmer than average GOM can most certainly lead to a more “hyper” severe weather season as spring gets going.
The late winter/ early spring drought monitor can give a hint where early warmth may try and get going. However, this year, we can’t rely on this tool as the Plains and East, including the heart of the #AGbelt, have seen copious amounts of moisture over the winter.
Let’s look at what the model guidance is printing out for meteorological spring:
JMA
CFSv2
JAMSTEC
European Seasonal
Summary
We anticipate a slightly warmer than average spring season across not only central Indiana, but the Mid West and Ohio Valley region, as a whole. A weak El Nino is expected to persist into the upcoming summer and the conditions typically associated with such should eventually show themselves (as opposed to more of a Nina-like flavor now) through the spring. We agree with the consensus of model guidance above that March is likely to feature the coldest temperatures, relative to normal, and that’s primarily due to what should be a colder 1st half of the month before more bonafide spring conditions take hold the 2nd half of the month. Precipitation is anticipated to run near average, if not slightly below average, levels through the spring. As for severe weather, we expect a much busier season than last year, especially with the warm SSTs lurking in the Gulf of Mexico.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/16/2019-spring-outlook/
Feb 14
All-Access Morning Video Update: Looking Into Next Week & Reviewing The Latest JMA Weeklies…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/14/all-access-morning-video-update-looking-into-next-week-reviewing-the-latest-jma-weeklies/
Feb 07
Dissecting Today’s Severe Potential; Winter Returns & Looking More In-depth At The New JMA Weeklies…
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has significantly expanded the “slight risk” area to include a large portions of the state.
While a fresh batch of heavy rain will move into central Indiana later this morning (another 1″ to 2″ is a good bet for most communities), the focus shifts to a window where severe thunderstorms will be possible during the early to mid afternoon.
A warm front will lift north through central IN late morning and this will allow relatively warm and moist air to briefly surge as far north as a Logansport to Fort Wayne line.
Note dew points will spike to 60 to 63 degrees over much of central and eastern IN this afternoon.
It’s during the 1p to 5p window when we’re most concerned for the chance of a few severe thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Damaging winds are of greatest concern, but anytime you have a warm front hanging around central Indiana with these kinds of setups, the potential of a tornado is in the back of your mind. I don’t foresee this being a major tornado outbreak whatsoever, but parameters do suggest the chance of a quick spin-up tornado is present, as well during this timeframe.
The cold front will crash into Indianapolis between 4p and 5p and you’ll certainly know it.
Strong and gusty northwest winds will blow sharply cold air into the region this evening and tonight. In fact, highs in the lower to middle 60s this afternoon will be into the 20s before midnight. Lows Friday morning will fall into the 10s and highs Friday will only top out in the lower 20s with wind chill values in the single digits most of the day.
After a dry open to the weekend, we continue to monitor the potential of a light wintry event Sunday into early Monday. This doesn’t appear to be a big deal, but the chance is there for an inch or two of snow for portions of the central and northern Ohio Valley during this timeframe.
Additional challenges await early and mid next week, but we’ll save those for updates later this afternoon or evening.
JMA Weeklies
The updated JMA Weeklies are in and in short suggest the southeast ridge continues to put up a fight over the next couple of weeks before getting “squashed” in the Weeks 3-4 timeframe.
This is in line with our thinking of the “transitional” period beginning this upcoming week. We think cold will begin to “push,” but isn’t ready to lock-in as of yet. There will be cold readily available to present more of a wintry potential with storms that track through the region when compared to this week, but we think it’s the period from 2/17 through early March that has the capability of featuring more sustained cold.
That’s a strong signal being painted by the JMA Weeklies in the Weeks 3-4 timeframe for widespread cold. Given that the MJO is forecast to swing into Phase 8 by this timeframe, along with the NAO/ AO looking to dip negative, the widespread cold look is a good idea to us during this particular time period.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/07/dissecting-todays-severe-potential-winter-returns-looking-more-in-depth-at-the-new-jma-weeklies/
Jan 24
Long Range: Cold Pattern Isn’t Going Anywhere Fast…
We’ll save our short-term discussions for the severe and high-impact arctic outbreak on deck and focus our attention in this post to the upcoming several weeks. In short, we don’t expect the cold pattern to break anytime soon. Could there be a day or two of “relaxation?” Yes, but from an overall perspective, confidence is higher than normal on the colder than average pattern continuing through the month of February.
Let’s dig in to the teleconnections:
EPO
AO
NAO
PNA
Given the teleconnections in agreement pointing towards a cold pattern, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the majority of data is also on the cold train as we flip the page into February:
CFSv2 Weeklies
Weeks 1 & 2
Weeks 3 & 4
JMA Weekly
GEFS
While we aren’t licensed to show the European Weeklies, the new update runs with a cold pattern into early March. This falls in line with the overall consensus of longer range data, backed up by teleconnections.
Though not nearly at the amplitude of a few weeks ago, the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is forecast to move through Phases 5 and 6 in the coming weeks before going back into the “null” phase.
Phases 5 and 6 this time of year would suggest colder anomalies are more likely around our neck of the woods:
Given the above, we continue to think a colder than average “2nd half” of winter looms for the region. We lean heavily on the NAO, EPO, and AO state(s) this time of year and all would point towards a cold time of things moving forward, overall. The latest European Weeklies are interesting from a couple of fronts- initially very cold and then progressively stormy. The idea here is that we remain quite wintry through February and into early March before this pattern breaks. While we may not see a “repeat” visit of the Vortex, it wouldn’t surprise us to see another major arctic outbreak again this winter (after next week), but that likely comes later, and towards the end of the game before we snap into spring.
Buckle up; we think we have a long way to go this winter…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/24/long-range-cold-pattern-isnt-going-anywhere-fast/