Jan 10
Tonight’s video update focuses on the long range and reviews some of the fresh short-term data churning on this weekend’s snow storm.
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/10/video-long-range-update-and-looking-at-this-weekends-snow-storm/
Jan 03
Winter has been on hold over the past few weeks, and there’s really nothing that looks to shake that up anytime soon (at least through the upcoming 10-14 days).
The new JMA Weeklies are in this morning and they continue to highlight the mild times:
Week 1
Week 2
Weeks 3-4
This is a rather dramatic reversal from what this particular model was saying only last week- when it was bringing winter back with authority by Week 2 on. One could easily argue that even out to the Weeks 3-4 time frame that this certainly isn’t an ideal look for “stick and hold” cold to eventually push into the East.
There is a lot going on “behind the scenes” right now and this isn’t us saying winter’s over before it really even began, but it continues to look more and more likely that any sort of sustained cold and potentially snowy times will have to remain on hold until potentially late month. The roaring PAC jet will likely continue to have it’s say until then…
(More later tonight on some of the items that argue for winter to get going as we progress into late January and beyond).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/03/new-jma-weeklies-highlight-overall-mild-pattern/
Dec 20
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/20/deeper-look-into-the-long-range/
Sep 13
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/09/13/all-eyes-on-florence-generally-quiet-here/
Aug 30
Thursday features updated weekly products from both the JMA (morning) and European (evening). We’ll update this post tonight once the European Weeklies are in.
The updated JMA Weeklies show a hot open to September as a significant upper ridge takes up residence over the eastern portion of the country. While the upper Mid West gets in on heavy rain, it’s a rather dry pattern, locally. Sure we’ll have typical “splash and dash” variety of storms through the Labor Day weekend, but nothing worth cancelling any of your outdoor plans. In fact, we recommend incorporating a visit (or two) to the pool over the weekend as well above average warmth and humidity dominate.
Week 1
“Transitional period” summarizes this timeframe. The upper ridge begins to retrograde during Week 2, but it’s still a warmer than average pattern. It’s a rather dry pattern, as well.
Week 2
Craving a more “fall-ish” regime? The model says you’re in luck towards the middle of September and would make sense with some of the larger pattern drivers we’re beginning to see behind the scenes. The ridge axis shifts west and allows a cooler than normal pattern to descend into the central part of the country.
Weeks 3-4
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/08/30/september-opens-warm-before-mid-month-changes/
Jul 28
Summer has been dry, thus far, for central Indiana. With the last month of meteorological summer on the doorstep, will that continue?
Before we discuss further, let’s check-up on precipitation anomalies at IND (through July 28th).
We have discussed the upcoming shift to a wetter regime that will develop Sunday into the first half of next week. A Saturday evening update continues to point towards increasing rain chances arriving as we rumble into Sunday evening. As expected, this morning’s high resolution NAM was likely a bit too excited on the initial wave of moisture and has come around to a “more realistic” idea in our opinion.
Rain and embedded thunder will likely be rather widespread early Monday, especially across the southern half of the state.
Data continues to point towards the greatest coverage of rainfall arriving Monday night and Tuesday. We still expect a widespread 1″ to 2″ rain for central Indiana before things begin to wind down mid to late week. There will be locally heavier totals.
As we look ahead, we think the balance of the month of August will feature an upper ridge across the western portion of the country that will keep our immediate region in an active northwesterly flow aloft. Perhaps the GEFS is seeing this best at the moment (important to note the model has been consistent with respect to run-to-run updates as of late). This is a wet signal this time of year…
The model has support of a return to wetter times as noted from the latest JMA Weeklies, CFSv2, and European ensemble.
While the cool will relax as we rumble past the first couple days of the month (we’re in the “dog days” after all), I still think the worst of the heat is over for the summer and the headline for August will likely be a situation where we begin to make up for lost time in the precipitation department. That upper ridge centered to our west in the means will likely result in a continuation of rather active times from a precipitation perspective through the month and our idea is that we finish August with above normal precipitation across central Indiana for the first time since April…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/07/28/time-to-buck-the-trend-on-the-dry-summer/
Jul 26
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/07/26/thursday-evening-video-update-hint-of-fall-on-the-doorstep-widespread-soaker-early-next-week/
Jul 21
It was a tale of two worlds across the state on Friday. Despite a couple of non-severe, gusty showers that impacted western portions of the state Friday evening, the majority of the “excitement” took place in the eastern half of the state. Multiple large hail, wind, and tornado reports were included along with heavy rain. When we look at storm total rainfall through 8a today, we note widespread 2″ to 3″ amounts across eastern Indiana. Muncie recorded amounts in excess of 3″!
As we look ahead, our weekend weather will continue to be dominated by a “cut off” area of low pressure. As it meanders around the region, shower and thunderstorm chances will remain. Aerial coverage of rain will reach greatest heights during the afternoon and evening hours today and Sunday. With the colder air aloft, don’t be surprised if a few of the stronger showers produce hail.
Additionally, highs today will run close to 10° below the average high of the mid-80s.
As we open up the new week, showers and embedded thunder will also be around Sunday before the upper low begins to lose it’s influence on the region. We’ll maintain shower chances into the new work week, but overall coverage should be diminished Monday.
Shower and embedded thunder chances remain Sunday. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.
A couple of cold fronts will make a run at the Ohio Valley over the upcoming week. The first will pass through during the midweek stretch, followed by a stronger frontal passage as we get ready to head into the weekend. Each front will provide a shower/ thunderstorm threat. A stronger push of pleasantly refreshing air should arrive behind front number 2 as we head into next weekend.
On the temperature note, models continue to show a cooler than average pattern as we open August.
Longer term, the NEW JMA Weeklies suggest the worst of the summer heat is now behind us as they keeps the Weeks 3-4 time period unseasonably refreshing…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/07/21/saturday-morning-rambles-unsettled-weekend-and-looking-ahead/
Jul 12
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/07/12/video-hot-weekend-but-a-significant-pattern-change-is-on-deck/
Jun 28
Changes are brewing in the longer range and the latest JMA Weeklies illustrate this nicely.
Week 1
No changes are needed to the expected significant heat wave to open the month of July. Heat and humidity will reach excessive levels at times- heat indices of 100° to 110° at times. While isolated coverage of storms are possible a few of the days (primarily afternoon and evening variety), it’s a dry pattern, overall.
Week 2
The pattern is in a transitional period during this time frame as the upper ridge retrogrades west. While still warm, the hottest conditions will shift west under the upper ridge. The other take-away? An active northwest flow returns with an emerging “ring of fire” pattern.
Weeks 3-4
While perhaps a bit quick, the model reverses things entirely by the Weeks 3-4 time frame. There’s no denying we think the hottest period of the summer will be behind us by mid-July, and while this type pattern shown below is where we think the dominant overall pattern is heading for the second half of summer, the model may be a bit aggressive here. Regardless, the Weeks 3-4 time frame are expected to not only reverse, but turn cooler than average over the Great Lakes region.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/28/new-jma-weeklies-shed-light-on-the-long-range/