Category: Heavy Rain

Mar 09

Heavier Rain Builds In Tonight…

Screen Shot 2016-03-09 at 7.25.48 AMHighlights:

  • Heavier rains arrives on scene tonight-Thursday
  • Dry, nice close to the work week
  • Weekend rain and storm return
  • Very warm early next week

Good Sleeping Weather Tonight…Today will offer up scattered showers, but it’s really tonight through Thursday afternoon that has us focused for most widespread and heavier rain (along with embedded thunder).  This is the first of two “slugs” of moisture that will provide hefty rain totals between now and early next week.  The second surge of moisture will arrive late Saturday into the day Sunday.  The trade off?  An absolutely beautiful close to the work week.

Once we shake the rain early next week, we’ll really crank the thermometer.  We expect middle 70s next Tuesday across most of central IN.  We caution though that colder times loom around March 20th.  Don’t put away the winter gear just yet…

7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 2.00″ – 2.50″ (locally heavier totals)
Interested in more in-depth long range forecast discussions, video updates, ag. forecasts, and seasonal outlooks? E-mail bill@indywx.com for more information.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/03/09/heavier-rain-builds-in-tonight/

Mar 07

Warm Pattern Turns Increasingly Wet…

Screen Shot 2016-03-08 at 7.21.34 AMHighlights:

  • Warm, mostly dry Tuesday
  • Rain builds in mid week
  • Weekend questions

Enjoy Today’s Sun…Today looks to be the pick of the week, including mostly dry conditions and temperatures that will feel more like April.  Find a way to get out and enjoy it!

Moisture will surge northeast into the region during the day Wednesday and a wavy front will sag south into the area to close the work week.  The combination of a deep moisture transport out of the Gulf will help ignite locally heavy downpours.  While questions are certainly there in regards to timing, we’re leaning more towards the optimistic side of things with this update…thinking enough dry air may invade the area for a mostly dry Saturday.  This is an, admittedly, low confidence forecast.

Regardless of whether or not we can enjoy a mostly dry start to the weekend, moisture will stream back into the area for the second half of the weekend.  Heavy rain and embedded thunder looks likely Sunday.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 2.00″ – 2.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/03/07/warm-pattern-turns-increasingly-wet/

Mar 05

Brighter Sunday; Warm, Wet Period Coming…

Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 9.28.01 AMHighlights:

  • Pick of the weekend is Sunday
  • Warm, breezy, and wet week ahead
  • Timing heavy rain

Mostly Cloudy Today; Brighter Sunday…A weak disturbance scooted through the region overnight and lead to a quick “pop” of mixed rain/ snow.  As expected, this wasn’t a big deal.  We’ll keep clouds around today, but introduce more in the way of sunshine Sunday (after morning fog).

A warmer SW flow will develop in the new week ahead and help transport much warmer air into the region, but this will also lead to an increasingly wet pattern.  Spotty early week showers will give way to more widespread and heavier rains for the middle of the week.  Timing is up in the air, but there’s the chance we get into some briefly drier air Thursday PM, but we caution it won’t last long as a new surge of moisture arrives to close the work week.  We’ll also introduce thunder chances to wrap up the work week.

Interested in more in-depth long range forecast discussions, video updates, ag. forecasts, and seasonal outlooks? E-mail bill@indywx.com for more information.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/03/05/brighter-sunday-warm-wet-period-coming/

Mar 04

Warm, But Wet Pattern Setting Up…

Screen Shot 2016-03-04 at 10.25.28 AM

Interested in more in-depth long range forecast discussions, video updates, ag. forecasts, and seasonal outlooks? E-mail bill@indywx.com for more information.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/03/04/warm-but-wet-pattern-setting-up/

Mar 03

Next Week: Much Warmer, But Increasingly Wet…

As we begin to transition from winter to spring this weekend, it’s not only the impressive early season warmth that has our attention next week, but also a developing wet pattern.

NextWeekA combination of ingredients will result in a rather prolonged moist southwesterly air flow, with a Gulf of Mexico connection.  The end result is a wet pattern developing, especially come mid week.

1So while you get ready to enjoy the warmer than normal spring feel, it may also be wise to have the rain gear handy.

Interested in more in-depth long range forecast discussions, video updates, ag. forecasts, and seasonal outlooks? E-mail bill@indywx.com for more information.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/03/03/next-week-much-warmer-but-increasingly-wet/

Feb 22

Monday Evening Video Update…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/22/monday-evening-video-update-7/

Feb 20

Saturday Morning: Spring Today, But Winter Returns…

To date, February is running slightly cooler and drier than average, locally.       Expect a beautiful Saturday and we officially have issued a white leg warning. 🙂 With highs…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/20/saturday-morning-spring-today-but-winter-returns/

Jan 31

10 Day Ag-Weather Outlook…

10 Day AG-Weather Outlook

Issued: 01.31.16

Forecast period: 02.01.16 – 02.10.16

Focal Items:

  • Plains blizzard Days 1-3
  • Severe threat from the Mid South to the Ohio Valley Tuesday
  • Impactful winter event developing late in the period

Summary:  The forecast period will begin with strong ridging across the eastern half of the CONUS, while a significant trough digs across the west. That trough will lift northeast through the middle of the upcoming work week before re-amplifying over the upcoming weekend into early week 2 across the Plains and Ohio Valley region.

Sensible Impacts:  A significant storm system will move off the Rockies and into the Plains Monday.  The surface low  will track northeast from SE CO Monday night into SW MI Tuesday night.  To the north and northwest of the surface low, heavy snow and blizzard conditions will impact areas from CO, KS, NE, IA, MN, and WI.  South and southeast of the surface low track, strong to severe thunderstorms will rumble through the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday night.  All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes.

We’ll need to keep a close eye on the potential of a clipper system diving SE across the N. Plains and upper Ohio Valley over the upcoming weekend, but the bigger event appears to be a developing winter storm threat centered on the end of the period (2/8-2/10 time period).  There are, obviously, a lot of details to sort through, but an impactful winter event is very possible across the Ohio Valley towards the end of the forecast period.

Temperature Anomalies:  The period will open much warmer than normal, but transition cold, and eventually colder than normal by the end of the period across the forecast region.

Screen Shot 2016-01-31 at 5.25.30 PM

Anomalous warmth will engulf the Ohio Valley to open the forecast period. Source: Penn State E-Wall

The pattern shifts colder than normal towards the end of the period across the Plains into the southeast. Source: Penn State E-Wall

The pattern shifts colder than normal towards the end of the period across the Plains into the southeast. Source: Penn State E-Wall

Precipitation:  A stripe of heavy snows (10″-15″) will fall from CO, NE, IA, southern MN, and WI with the initial early week storm.  .5″-1.5″ of rain will fall across the Southeast, TN, and OH Valley regions (locally heavier totals where strong storm train).  Overall, quieter times return mid and late week for the forecast region before the next potential strong storm develops late in the period.

For private weather consulting and more detailed ag-weather updates, please e-mail bill@indywx.com.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/31/10-day-ag-weather-outlook/

Dec 28

Strong Winds; More Heavy Rain…

Screen Shot 2015-12-28 at 7.38.21 AMHighlights:

  • Strong winds and flood threat continues
  • Weak mid week system
  • Much colder to open the New Year

Strong Winds And Flood Threat Remains…What an active morning across central IN!  Northeast winds are already gusting around 40 MPH with periods of heavy rain this morning.  Across our northern tier of counties (mainly north of a line from LAF to KOK) freezing rain and sleet is the issue this morning with temperatures below freezing.

Periods of heavy rain will continue today, and we also note the threat of embedded thunder (damaging wind risk) this evening, bracketed between the hours of 6p-8p.

Image below is courtesy of Weatherbell.com

StrongWindsTemperatures will remain cold and raw through most of the day before we see a late day rally briefly into the lower to middle 50s.  It’ll be another day with a tight temperature gradient across the state, as northern IN will struggle to make it much above freezing, while southern IN approaches the upper 60s this evening.

Midnight highs Tuesday can be expected before temperatures crash.

We’ll then set our eyes towards a weak wave of low pressure that looks to deliver a light mixed bag of precipitation Wednesday morning.  The freezing line will run through the central part of IN and a mixture of light snow and light rain can be expected.  MUCH colder air flows into the state behind this system and sets the stage for a cold open to 2016.

Image below is courtesy of Weatherbell.com

WednesdayForecast models continue to show an expected pattern shift to all-out sustained cold and wintry conditions for mid and late winter.  Note the W NA ridging developing.  Additionally, blocking and a negative AO develop as mid January nears.  Think this is the year without a winter?  Better think again, my friends.

Image below is courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com

MidJan2016

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/28/strong-winds-more-heavy-rain/

Dec 26

Periods Of Heavy Rain…

Saturday will dawn dry across the region, but that will quickly begin to change as morning progresses into afternoon. Moisture is streaming north and a “wavy” frontal system will remain…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/26/periods-of-heavy-rain/

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