We’re enjoying quiet times across Indiana this evening, but times are quickly changing to put us into a stormy position between Wednesday morning and wrapping up the work week.
While the overall pattern is an easy one to label from a broad scale perspective as “stormy,” the precise details are incredibly difficult to pin point much more than 12-24 hours in advance. With that said, most of the state is very much in fair game for periods of storms (generally tracking in a NW to SE fashion) between now and the end of the work week. Eventually, drier air will set us up for a very pleasant weekend, including lots of sunshine and cooler temperatures. In fact, latest data still suggests we can expect to wake up to the 50s Sunday and/ or Monday morning(s).
Before we enjoy the pleasant weekend weather, the first of a series of storm complexes will approach Wednesday morning. Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCCs) can be a true pain for short-term modeling to handle, but the overall idea this evening is for the first of (2) complexes to impact parts of the region Wednesday morning.
This is an idea what the radar may look like around 9a. This would be the same complex that will deal quite the blow to portions of the eastern Plains and upper Mid West tonight (localized damaging straight line winds will be an issue to our NW). Thankfully, we expect weakening of this complex as it dives off to the SE, in our general direction.
We’ll go through a quiet period during the afternoon hours before a second surge of storms takes aim on the region tomorrow night into Thursday morning (again, understanding we’ll have to “sure up” timing as we go).
Additional storm complexes will follow Thursday into Friday before that drier air gets here. Some of these could be strong to severe.
While rainfall amounts won’t be uniform, there’s the potential for some neighborhoods to get 2″-3″ of rain between now and week’s end (where storms train).
Looking ahead, after a dry weekend and open to next week, indications point towards a return of wet and active times as we approach Day 10. Long range ensemble data backs up the wet, stormy look nicely, and there’s really no end in sight…
Mid and high level clouds will spread over the region today, but we’ll stay dry. We’ll notice a lowering and thickening cloud deck by evening and this is a hint at things to come Sunday.
Rain will overspread the region Sunday morning, increasing in coverage and intensity as we progress into Sunday evening.
Rain will turn locally heavy at times and we expect a widespread swath of 2″-3″ totals through the heart of the state, with localized heavier amounts. Precipitable water values exceed 2″ across central and southern IN Sunday evening and will likely promote a flash flood threat.
Most of the rain falls Sunday morning-Monday morning before drier air begins to try and work in here as Monday afternoon arrives. As of now, we think Monday evening firework shows should be a go!
We note ensemble support, as well.
Rain totals will likely be hefty for some, including widespread 2″+ totals where the axis of heaviest rain falls.
Stay tuned as we continue to look over data and update the important Independence Day weekend forecast.
A line of thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon and a few of these could be strong to severe as they push to the south. Large hail and damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern. We think best chances of thunderstorms across central IN will come during the mid to late afternoon hours into the early evening.
The air mass is loaded with moisture today. In fact, precipitable water values will zoom to 2″+ this afternoon and suggest the threat of torrential rainfall with any storm that develops.
Once to Tuesday, a MUCH cooler, drier air mass will arrive on the scene and help set up an unseasonably cool close to the month.
We won’t bore you with the meteorological ingredients/ lingo that are coming together to lead to an active Wednesday with this post, but please know that nearly all severe weather parameters point to the threat, and even likelihood, of an active day.
The first of multiple storm clusters will likely be moving into central IN Wednesday morning. Here’s an idea of what the radar may look like around 7a.
We think we undergo a “lull” in the action Wednesday afternoon before a potentially more serious complex of storms blows into town during the evening hours. We caution that we’re not as confident on specific timing with the evening round of storms.
Current data would imply a tornado threat for areas from northern IL into northwestern IN with the afternoon/ evening convection before “morphing” into a more widespread damaging wind threat as the line propels southeast into the nighttime hours. 
Damaging straight line winds and large hail are of biggest concern as these scattered strong to severe storms continue to advance southeast. This is all in association with a cold front moving into a very warm, moist, and unstable air mass.
In addition to the hail and wind threat, locally torrential downpours are a good bet as precipitable water values (PWATs) approach 2″+ in some areas.
We’ll turn much quieter during the overnight as the cold front passes through the region. A northwest wind shift will allow a drier air mass to slip into central IN come Tuesday morning.