Category: Heavy Rain

Jul 31

More Active Pattern Early Week…

The Corn Belt and parts of the Ohio Valley will be in a favorable position for periods of storminess as we progress through the early portions of the new week.

It’s an admittedly tricky pattern when it comes down to the all-important details (timing, track, etc.), but just know from this distance, it’s a pattern conducive for thunderstorm development and localized flash flooding.

The region will be located on the NE flank of a hot dome centered to our SW.

The region will be located on the NE flank of a hot dome centered to our SW.

Disturbances love to ride northwest to southeast around the periphery of the ridge.  Accordingly, the subtle northwest flow aloft will likely send a couple disturbances into the region over the early week stretch.

NWFlowThe atmosphere will be loaded with moisture and precipitable water values (2″+) will promote localized flash flooding within the storm complexes.

MoistureWe think the initial wave of storms will ride southeast late tonight and early Monday and could encompass SW portions of the forecast area.  The pattern is favorable for additional storm complexes to travel southeast Tuesday and Wednesday, however.

With the moisture content in the atmosphere, localized flash flooding will result where training takes place.  We caution that this won’t be a uniform event (some neighborhoods will see a half inch of rain this week while others may see as much as 3″-4″).  We’ll have to treat each complex as they come and fine tune the specifics within the forecast.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/31/more-active-pattern-early-week/

Jul 30

The Last Month Of Meteorological Summer Is Upon Us…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/30/the-last-month-of-meteorological-summer-is-upon-us/

Jul 29

Storms Fire Later This Afternoon And Evening For Some…

It’s a nice start to the day, though patchy dense fog is impacting some communities this morning.  Sunshine will burn through the fog over the next hour, or two.

Screen Shot 2016-07-29 at 7.43.54 AMThat said, things will change as we progress into the prime heating hours of the afternoon and evening.  Upper level energy will rotate east out of the Plains (this morning) and across Indiana this afternoon and evening.

UntitledThis will help ignite thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening.  While a storm could impact any given neighborhood this evening, best concentration of storms should lie north of the I-70 corridor.  Locally heavy rain will be a good bet with the stronger storms.  Localized rainfall amounts in excess of 2″ will be possible.

hrrr_ref_indy_13Additional scattered thunderstorm activity will continue Saturday, but there will be many more dry hours than wet/ stormy.

Looking ahead, a shot of heat will come out next week (lower 90 potential), but this will be transient.  By the 8-10 day period, we’re back into an active NW flow type look.  You know the drill by now.  That means potential storm complexes and the worst of the heat to our west, relative to averages.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/29/storms-fire-later-this-afternoon-and-evening-for-some/

Jul 28

Storms Increase In Coverage This Afternoon…

Screen Shot 2016-07-28 at 7.27.22 AMHighlights:

  • Storm coverage increases
  • Cooler than days past
  • Unsettled pattern next week

Stormy At Times…Widespread thunderstorms have resulted in as much as 4″-5″ of rain across southeastern IN during the early morning hours.  Flash flooding has resulted (including in and around the Cincy area, as well).  Closer to the home front, upper air energy will combine with a weak surface wave of low pressure to result in an enhanced storm chance this afternoon and evening across central IN.  Some locally heavy rain will accompany the stronger storms that develop, along with vivid lightning.

Scattered storm chances will remain Friday into Saturday, but there will also be plenty of dry hours, as well.  Drier air should keep most of the state rain-free Sunday before an unsettled regime returns for early and middle parts of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″-1.25″ (locally heavier totals)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/28/storms-increase-in-coverage-this-afternoon/

Jul 27

Storm Chances, But Plenty Of Dry Time…

Screen Shot 2016-07-27 at 7.14.50 AMHighlights:

  • Storm chances, but timing needs fine tuning
  • Turning slightly cooler over the weekend
  • Unsettled regime continues early next week

More Sunshine Today…Areas of heavy rain resulted in localized flooding across south-central IN yesterday.  While we can’t go with a completely dry forecast today, it will be an overall drier day when compared to Tuesday.  An isolated thunderstorm is possible, but most should remain dry.

Upper level energy and increased moisture will lead to a more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms Thursday.  With precipitable water values approaching 2″ in spots Thursday, localized hefty downpours will again be possible.

We’ll continue scattered storm chances this weekend, particularly Saturday, as renewed upper level energy moves overhead.  After a slightly cooler stretch of weather, compared to normal, we’ll begin to heat things back up next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″-1.00″ (localized heavier totals)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/27/storm-chances-but-plenty-of-dry-time/

Jul 26

Stormy For Some This Morning; Transient Pattern Into August…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/26/stormy-for-some-this-morning-transient-pattern-into-august/

Jul 21

Thursday Evening Rambles…

1.) A big ole ridge will supply oppressive heat and humidity across the Mid West this weekend.  Unseasonably hot temperatures will combine with downright “soupy” air to create heat indices between 105-110 degrees across central IN this weekend.  Take it easy and implement frequent breaks if your plans take you outdoors.

HeatIndex

2.) Similar to what we’re seeing on radar this evening, thunderstorms will also make an appearance from time to time for some.  With an atmosphere loaded with moisture, any storm that develops will be plenty capable of producing “frog straggler” type rainfall rates.  Perhaps there will be a couple periods of more concentrated storm activity, focused on late tomorrow night and early Saturday, and again late Saturday night-Sunday morning.  We’ll keep an eye on things.

LateFriNight

3.)  The pattern is one (as has been the case all summer) that’s transient and the situation that develops to wrap up July and open August is an all-too-familiar look around these parts: NW flow aloft that offers storm potential, along with seasonal to slightly warmer than average.  It’s a wet look, overall.

WetPattern

10-Day GFS rainfall numbers are impressive across the Mid West. Soaking rains for many. Courtesy Weatherbell.com

10-Day GFS rainfall numbers are impressive across the Mid West. Soaking rains for many. Courtesy Weatherbell.com

This is what the upper air pattern should look like as we close July- 10 days from now (hard to believe)!

July31st

4.)  Looking further ahead, the latest JMA Weeklies continue to suggest the most sustained hot pattern should remain across the west as we rumble deeper into August.  That’s not to say we won’t deal with periods of hot weather here at times, but sustained heat will be hard to come by with such a pattern…

Screen Shot 2016-07-21 at 7.48.29 AM

Screen Shot 2016-07-21 at 7.48.39 AM

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/21/thursday-evening-rambles-2/

Jul 18

Stormy Start; Heat Builds Late Week…

Screen Shot 2016-07-18 at 10.07.34 AMHighlights:

  • Storms to start the work week
  • Heat and humidity build
  • Heat doesn’t last

Renewed Storm Chances Later Today…Alarm clocks weren’t needed today as a big complex of storms and heavy rain rumbled through the state during the pre-dawn hours.  Many neighborhoods received a quick 2.5″+ during the overnight and predawn hours.  As we write this, renewed thunderstorms are firing to our west and will impact portions of the state later this afternoon.  Additional hefty rains are a good bet for some.

We’ll dry things out as we rumble through the mid week stretch and while isolated storms are possible to close the week, most folks should remain dry as a big ole’ upper ridge builds over the mid west.  The big story will be intensifying hot, humid weather- centered on Friday-Saturday.  Heat indices will approach 100-105 degrees during this time frame, as well.  The good news is that forecast data points to the associated hot dome backing west and setting up shop over the Rockies to close the month and open August.  Accordingly, the hottest anomalies will shift west, as well.  We’ll be left with a NW flow aloft providing a cooler and unsettled stretch to close the month of July and open August.

Wet

The pattern to close July and open August should look rather familiar to what we’ve seen the majority of summer. NW flow aloft with frequent rain/ storm chances. Courtesy: TropicalTidbits

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″-1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/18/stormy-start-heat-builds-late-week/

Jul 16

Pleasant Weekend Before Storms Return…

Screen Shot 2016-07-16 at 7.24.50 AMHighlights:

  • Dry and pleasant weekend
  • Storms return late Sunday night into Monday
  • Heat builds late next week

Refreshing Feel…A weak disturbance is tracking through central IN this morning with a band of clouds and a couple sprinkles.  That said, sunshine will quickly return late morning into the afternoon and set up a beautiful day, along with pleasant temperatures and low humidity.

Our next round of storms will arrive from the NW late Sunday night into Monday.  A few of these storms could be strong to severe and also include locally heavy rain.

Modeling disagrees on the magnitude of cooling and drier weather behind Monday’s front.  The more aggressive GFS would imply another push of pleasant air for a couple days Tuesday-Wednesday, while the European isn’t as bullish.  For now, we’ll split the difference and revisit tomorrow.

One thing that modeling does agree on is building late week heat.  Expect a hot, humid close to the work week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″-1.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/16/pleasant-weekend-before-storms-return/

Jul 14

Pleasant Weekend On Deck…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/14/pleasant-weekend-on-deck/

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