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Category: Heavy Rain
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/20/weekend-video-update/
Jan 18
Times Are Changing, Or Are They?
January-to-date is running milder than normal across the region- to the tune of 3.3 degrees (F). This is after a frigid open to the month, as you recall.
The second week of the month warmed significantly and continues, overall, for the next week.
The mid-January warmth is attributed to a roaring PAC jet which is currently helping flood the country with temperatures much more like spring than the dead of winter. We continue to forecast 60+ this weekend across central IN.
Winter lovers, have no fear as changes appear to be in the offing as we go through the last few days of January and head into February. The winter so far has featured conflicting signals that continue to try and compete with one another to take hold of the pattern. Can we get these drivers to align in a way that would pull a more persistent trough into the east for the second half of the winter and, ultimately, set-up a sustained cold pattern helping make up for lost time in the snowfall department? Time will tell, but we do note the following late month:
- (+) PNA pattern
- Sudden stratospheric warming event
- High latitude blocking
All are encouraging for a shift back towards a wintry regime. As always, the devil is in the details and we’re skeptical as to the longevity of these signals. “Cautiously optimistic” would be the way to sum up our current feel longer-term into the month of February, but we’re not as bullish on lock and hold cold, wintry conditions at this time as what you may hear from some of our national compadres. Understanding that various drivers can have a different impact mid and late winter as opposed to early is one thing. It’s also important to note that long term modeling has been abysmal as of late and we want to tread through the next couple of weeks with caution to see whether or not the cold drivers can finally take hold.
Needless to say, at least through late month, one can see the significant changes take place at 500mb.
Thursday:
This Weekend:
Next Thursday:
Next Weekend:
The pattern begins in the short-term with a look that will power anomalous warmth through the weekend, along with renewed rain chances Thursday night into Friday (another 1″+ for most), but begins to shift next week towards the colder look. The 2nd (weekend) storm system will be significant and poses a severe risk to the southeast region. Modeling has backed away on the heavy rain threat Sunday, but showers will be around early next week along with very windy conditions (40+ MPH gusts). Blocking is forcing the low south. By the time we get to next weekend, the pattern has done a 180 and in a position to drill unseasonably cold air back into the central and eastern portions of the country.
As far as storms go later in the period, it’s far too early to discuss specifics, but the pattern seems to be one that will promote the chance to get into the act on high-ratio producing clippers. It’s the first time we can say that this year. Time will tell…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/18/times-are-changing-or-are-they/
Jan 16
Warm, But Unsettled Week…
Highlights:
- Unseasonably warm week
- Multiple rounds of rain and embedded thunderstorms
- Eyeing winter’s return next week
Have The Rain Gear Handy…While we’ll enjoy unseasonably mild temperatures, the wet and unsettled theme we’ve been dealing with as of late we’ll continue this week.
Most of the daytime today will feature more dry time than wet with just scattered showers expected before more widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms arrive by nightfall. Wet and periodically stormy times continue tonight into the early morning hours Tuesday. After a predawn high in the mid 50s, temperatures will slowly fall during the day Tuesday before remaining steady in the middle to upper 40s for the balance of the afternoon.
We may get a brief (rare) look at the sun Wednesday as we’ll be in between weather systems, but have no fear, as our next storm will be developing to our south and arrive with showers Thursday. 🙂 Rain and perhaps a thunderstorm continue Friday, especially through the first half of the day.
The majority of Saturday will feature dry and warm (early spring-like) conditions, but clouds will increase during the second half of the day and showers will push north into the state at night. Windy, wet conditions continue Sunday.
Longer-term, forecast models continue to paint a significantly colder, wintry pattern as we go through the last week of the month.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/16/warm-but-unsettled-week/
Jan 15
Sunday Afternoon Rambles…
1.) January, month-to-date, is running slightly above normal at IND (+1.2 F) and nearly 1″ above normal in the precipitation department. Keeping true to the winter, overall, greatest cold departures are centered over the northern Plains and northern Rockies.
2.) Showers will creep north overnight into Monday morning, but shouldn’t amount to much. They will be scattered in nature across central Indiana.
3.) More widespread rain and embedded thunder will develop Monday night into Tuesday morning. This should amount of widespread half inch to one inch totals across the viewing area.
4.) A moist southwest flow will help push a warmer regime northward for the second half of the week. Though warm, we’ll also have to deal with periods of rain as disturbances track northeast. We circle Friday and Sunday as the wettest days and remain optimistic Saturday will feature dry and unseasonably warm conditions (lower-middle 60s). Between the rainy days Friday and Sunday, additional rainfall totals of 1″-2″ seem like a good bet.
5.) The evolution of the pattern just beyond the 7-day period we’ll begin to take on an increasingly wintry look and we remain confident on a flip back to wintry conditions as we roll through the last week of the month. We’ll have to keep a close eye on a storm system in the 8-10 day period. It’s obviously way too early to discuss specifics, but this will be the time the pattern is beginning to turn back towards a wintry regime…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/15/sunday-afternoon-rambles-2/
Jan 12
Weekend Ice And Heavy Rain Next Week…
Highlights:
- Turning colder
- Freezing rain develops Friday night
- Wet times continue
Active Times; Excessive Rainfall Risk Next Week…The overall weather pattern remains very active AND very wet. By the time all is said and done, an additional 3″ of rain is possible for a widespread portion of the region by the middle of next week, with locally heavier amounts. Lets time it out.
The focus in the shorter-term is for colder air to build in. Temperatures today will fall (after a spring-like feel during the wee morning hours). We’ll be in the 30s by mid to late afternoon and below freezing later this evening. Arctic high pressure will continue to force cold, dry air south across central IN as we wrap up the work week. At the same time, warm, moist air aloft will ride over the cold air trapped at the surface and trouble looms by Friday night. We expect light freezing rain to develop after dark and continue into Saturday morning. As disturbances move along the arctic boundary, additional precipitation (mostly light) will overspread central Indiana from time to time over the weekend. We want to continue to reiterate that a 1-2 degree temperature difference will mean a tremendous difference between additional ice accumulation and plain ole cold rain. Thinking is that the freeze line will shift north of the I-70 corridor Saturday afternoon before settling south towards I-70 again Saturday night and Sunday morning. We still have time to fine tune things, but as of now it seems likely that anywhere from 0.10″ to 0.20″ of glaze (freezing rain) will be possible across most central IN communities Friday night into Saturday.
We’ll get rid of the freezing rain early next week and bust back into a warm southwesterly air flow. Models are struggling with the precise details of how things evolve in the early-mid week period, but confidence remains very high on continued wet times. In fact, the GFS pulls a slug of 1.5″ precipitable water values (PWATs) north into the state the middle of next week and suggest the heavy rain threat remains Tuesday and Wednesday. By the middle of next week, we have to start becoming concerned for flood potential across the region.
Hang in there, we’ll see the sunshine return…some day.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 2.50″ – 3.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/12/weekend-ice-and-heavy-rain-next-week/
Nov 28
Periods Of Rain; T-storm Chance Tonight…
Highlights:
- Rain turns heavy tonight; Storm threat, too
- Trending colder to open December
- Next storm arrives over the weekend
A Wet Kick-Off To The Work Week…Moisture is streaming northeast over the Hoosier state this morning and this is really just the beginning of a wet and, eventually, stormy open to the work week. We may see a brief “lull” in the rain around the lunchtime hour, but heavy rain will increase in coverage this evening and continue into tonight. Additionally, we’ll introduce thunder into the mix this evening. In fact, some of the higher resolution, short-term, forecast models hint at a skinny line of thunderstorms that may impact central IN tonight. Strong wind gusts are of biggest concern with this line. Here’s an idea of what the radar may look like around 8p.
Considerable cloudiness will remain Tuesday and Wednesday, but both days will be much drier than today. A secondary wave of low pressure will move northeast along a pressing cold front Wednesday. Best rain chances Wednesday will fall across eastern sections of the viewing area.
The second half of the week will trend colder. A sprinkle or flurry is possible Thursday. The next storm we’re tracking will arrive over the weekend. Clouds increase Saturday and Sunday offers up the next good chance of rain. Though details are sketchy at this point, the prospects of a storm system with more wintry significance may arrive just beyond the 7-day period. Stay tuned. December is looking quite active and wintry…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: Trace
- Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/11/28/periods-of-rain-t-storm-chance-tonight/
Nov 26
Sunshine Returns This Weekend; Heavy Rain Event Looms…
Highlights:
- Sunshine finally returns
- Big time rain maker early next week
- Trending colder to open December
Sunshine Slowly Returns…We’ve been socked in with clouds, chilly conditions, and overall gloomy weather for the past several days. Thankfully, sunshine will eventually return this weekend. Today has started with overcast skies, but slow improvements should provide an increasingly sunny sky as the day wears on. Seasonable temperatures can be expected today.
The second half of the weekend will feature more in the way of sunshine, but our next storm system will be awaiting on deck by this point. Southwest winds will turn increasingly breezy by the PM and clouds will quickly increase yet again. Those clouds will yield rain as early as the wee morning hours Monday (well before sunrise). Periods of heavy rain can be expected Monday and even a thunderstorm by afternoon/ evening.
Most of the heavy rain will fall Monday, but we’ll maintain mention of showers in our forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. A second wave of low pressure will develop along a pressing front the middle of next week and spread moisture northeast. The “leader” storm system is much easier to forecast than the “follower” in this scenario. The details are muddy at this point concerning the extent of how far west precipitation can make it. Know that we’re keeping a close eye on things. For the sake of this particular forecast, we’ll include mention of rain showers mixing with snow showers as colder air moves in Thursday. Stay tuned.
The end of the week will feature a colder trend as we usher in December.
One final item on the agenda this morning- with this being Iron Bowl Saturday, we can’t leave you without wishing you an energetic WAR EAGLE!
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: Trace
- Rainfall: 1.25-1.75 (locally heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/11/26/sunshine-returns-this-weekend-heavy-rain-event-looms/
Nov 23
Happy Thanksgiving; Time To Get Used To An Active Pattern…
Highlights:
- Foggy start to Thanksgiving; Chilly
- Milder start to the week
- Big storm next week
Happy Thanksgiving…Before we dive into the upcoming active period of weather ahead, we want to wish you and yours and very happy and blessed Thanksgiving holiday. We here at IndyWx.com are so thankful for your friendship over the years and the countless weather reports and photos you send in on a daily basis. Find time to relax and enjoy the important things in life this holiday season.
After a wet, raw, and dreary Wednesday, Thanksgiving will be drier. Unfortunately, a large chunk of the day will likely feature low clouds, areas of fog, and drizzle, especially in the morning. Reinforcing cool air will blow in as shoppers hit the stores Friday, along with gusty winds and a possible sprinkle. Saturday will be chilly and blustery. After a Sunday morning freeze, moderating temperatures will develop as we close the weekend and open the new work week. This will be courtesy of SW winds ahead of a significant storm system that’s brewing next week.
Clouds will increase late Sunday and rain will follow Monday. Rain will increase in coverage and intensity and we’ll also add in the potential of strong storms into the mix Tuesday. (More details to come once we move closer, concerning strong to potentially severe prospects Tuesday). Much colder air will pour into the region behind the storm system and allow precipitation to mix with wet snow Wednesday.
This is only the beginning of what looks to be a very stormy and increasingly cold weather pattern. Longer-term model data suggests this will be the story throughout the majority of December. Our call of a snowier than normal December remains…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 2.50″-3.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/11/23/happy-thanksgiving-time-to-get-used-to-an-active-pattern/
Oct 21
Increasing Sunshine; Unseasonably Cool Close To The Work Week…
Highlights:
- Cool close to the work week
- Ideal autumn weekend
- Turning breezy early next week
- Scattered showers Wednesday PM
Grab The Jacket…After a significant rain event across central Indiana, the weekend will offer up a much-needed time to dry out! Here’s an illustration of where heaviest rains fell over the past 24-36 hours, courtesy of Weatherbell.com. Please note these aren’t official rainfall storm totals. Many ground-truth reports into the office include amounts of 1.5″-3″. Thanks to each of you for your reports!
High pressure will build in over the weekend and create an increasingly sunny sky. The only caveat to that will be today where mixed clouds and sun across central IN become a little thicker and may yield lake effect rain showers across northern portions of the state later this afternoon.
We’ll turn briefly milder Sunday (upper 60s to around 70), but it’ll be a breezy day as a dry cold front sets it’s eyes on the region for a Sunday evening sweep! Reinforcing cool air will blow in to open the work week, but this should be a rain-free frontal passage as our air mass will be very dry.
The next storm system that could deliver rain arrives Wednesday evening. Along with scattered showers, a gusty SW wind can be expected before cooler air blows in to close next week.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/21/increasing-sunshine-unseasonably-cool-close-to-the-work-week/
Oct 20
Much Cooler Feel; Increasing Weekend Sunshine…
Highlights:
- “Raw” weather today
- Increasing weekend sunshine
- Patchy frost Saturday morning
Wet And Chilly Today…An area of low pressure will track northeast along the Ohio River, into the interior portions of the Northeast between now and Friday. Additionally, a cold front will continue to press southeast today. The combination of these ingredients will equal a wet, raw, and breezy day across central IN. (Definitely NOT a chamber of commerce day). Temperatures will remain nearly steady through the daytime hours before sliding off relatively quickly tonight.
We’ll wrap up the work week and head into the weekend with increasing sunshine, but the coolest air of the fall season thus far. Temperatures will grow chilly enough Saturday morning to present a patchy frost threat for outlying areas away from the metro.
Winds will increase Sunday as our next cold front approaches. The air mass ahead of this front is very dry so we’re not expecting much, if any, precipitation with this next frontal passage (FROPA), but it will serve to offer up reinforcing cool air early next week.
The next storm system that could offer up rain will arrive Wednesday evening. From this distance, it doesn’t appear to be a heavy rain event.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/20/much-cooler-feel-increasing-weekend-sunshine/