Aug 19
A significant late summer cold front will move into the warm and humid air mass currently in place later tonight. This time tomorrow will feel mighty different outside with a…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wednesday-weather-notebook-strong-storms-still-possible/
Aug 17
Highlights:
Monday afternoon turned wet across central IN as a disturbance lifted north across the state, including Gulf of Mexico moisture. Localized strong storms and torrential rainfall impacted many neighborhoods.
Coverage of showers and storms will be much less Tuesday, but we still will maintain an isolated storm as a possibility.
Attention will then shift to two cold fronts that will impact the region between mid week and early next week. Strong to severe storms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening followed by much cooler air moving in for Thursday. We’ll keep a close eye on things. After nice weather Thursday through Saturday, another cold front will swing into the Hoosier state Sunday night/ early Monday with another round of showers and thunderstorms. Yet another pop of unseasonably cool air will follow to open next week.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1″ – 1.5″ (locally heavier totals)
Tonight’s “@cryptics Cam” shows a very nice time lapse of storms as they blew through Danville earlier today. Be sure to follow @cryptics on Twitter for awesome views of the sky and associated weather conditions here across central IN!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wednesday-storms-then-cooler/
Aug 17
*We’re going to begin posting a discussion going into more detail around the what and why of the seven day forecast in the mornings, followed by the actual updated 7-day…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/monday-weather-notebook/
Aug 09
1. August has gotten off to a cool start through the first eight days and we expect this to continue during the upcoming week, only growing cooler, relative to the…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-morning-weather-rambles-2/
Aug 04
Mid and high level cloudiness continue to drift into the state this evening and we note some rain and storms downstate. Across central Indiana, all-in-all it’s a very pleasant evening, including very comfy temperatures and humidity levels for early August.
Model consensus today has been to shift the axis of heavy rain across southern Indiana Wednesday night and Thursday, including some locally heavy totals with flooding possible.
We show the GFS above and we note the European, NAM, and Canadian all agree with the overall idea of heaviest rain across southern Indiana and points south.
Just as we were beginning to get all modeling onboard with the southern shift, the latest high-resolution NAM has shifted back north rather considerably. Note the difference in rainfall totals expected from the high resolution NAM just from the 12z run to the latest 18z run.
No doubt the high resolution NAM is an anomaly, but we also can’t totally discard this solution just yet either based off the longer term projections and relative consistency just a couple days ago. The higher resolution models can handle these type systems better at times so we’ll keep a close eye on things.
Confidence should increase rather dramatically with tonight’s model runs and we’ll be up to watch those trickle in.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/model-consensus-is-south-with-thursday-rain-except-the-high-resolution-nam/