Category Archives: Heavy Rain

Heavy Rain Then Colder…

Today can be labeled as the so called “calm before the storm,” as sunny skies greet us out the door.  It’ll be a very pleasant Monday with highs in the middle 60s.  Sunny skies this morning will turn increasingly cloudy later in the day as moisture continues to stream north associated with Patricia’s remnants.

This morning’s satellite picture:

image7When we look at the weather picture tomorrow we note the remnant moisture of Patricia continuing to lift north while a cold front approaches from the west.  The “squeeze play” that will ensue over the region will be just what the doctor ordered as widespread rain develops during the daytime Tuesday before growing heavy Tuesday night.

8a Tuesday Futurecast

8am

8p Tuesday Futurecast

8pOvernight Tuesday-Wednesday morning Futurecast

overnightLocally heavy rainfall can be expected.  When you average (5) computer models at this point then you get the idea rainfall totals will be somewhere in the range of 1.5″-2″ inches, with locally heavier totals.

Modeled rainfall totals by Wednesday morning3The story after the big rain storm moves away?  A very windy and much cooler feel as a strong trough moves into the eastern portion of the country.  This will keep temperatures significantly below normal for the 2nd half of the week on into the weekend.

500mb

No Comments Autumn, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Rain, Windy

Much Wetter; Cooler Pattern…

Screen Shot 2015-10-23 at 7.13.29 AMHighlights:

  • Rain moves in later today-Saturday
  • Cooler second half of the weekend
  • Heavy rain event next week

High pressure will give way to an approaching cold front later today and Saturday.  Showers will accompany the front and may spread into western IN as early as this evening before continuing to advance east tonight.  Most of the rain should fall through the first half of Saturday, but we’ll maintain a mention of showers up until the front passes Saturday night.

Cooler, drier air will move in Sunday and to open the new work week.  High pressure will supply a return of sunny, ideal fall conditions.

As we progress deeper into the week, another cold front will team up with moisture from the remnants of Patricia to provide a much needed soaking.  We forecast skies to cloud up Tuesday with rain developing by evening.  Periods of heavy rain can be expected Tuesday night into Wednesday before turning more “showery” in nature.  Much cooler air and blustery conditions can also be expected Thursday.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.75″ – 2.25″

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Forecast, Heavy Rain, Tropics, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Dry Weather Continues For Now…

Screen Shot 2015-10-21 at 9.55.29 PMHighlights:

  • Dry, warm, and breezy in the short term
  • Weekend rain chances
  • Better rain chances next week

The ups and downs of fall continue.  It was only a few days ago temperatures were in the 20s and widespread frost and freeze conditions were felt across central IN.  Flip forward to Thursday and some neighborhoods will flirt with the 80 degree mark with a gusty SW wind in place.  Dry weather will continue through the daytime Friday before we introduce shower chances Friday night.  Rain chances continue Saturday.

A cold front will sweep through the area Saturday night and provide a more fall-like feel for the second half of the weekend with increasingly sunny skies as the day progresses.

Our next weather maker will come in the form of a cold front the middle of next week and enough Gulf of Mexico moisture may get entrained into the system to present a better threat of more significant rains than what we’ve seen over the past month, or so.  We’ll keep our fingers crossed.  Model solutions as of now vary from an absolute deluge (GEM and European) to more of a 0.5″-1″ type event.  For now, we’ll “split the difference.”

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1″ – 1.5″

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Forecast, Heavy Rain, Rain, Unseasonably Warm

Weekly Highlights: Action Out West…

Highlights10051011There’s a whole slew of new products we’re going to start rolling out over the next several weeks, including more videos, as well. One of the new features is a nationwide weekly highlight map, helping showcase the big-ticket weather items that have our attention over the upcoming week. While we could side with going with fancy graphics, we chose to go the route of a hand drawn map for old time sakes. 🙂 This will be posted on Sunday or Monday of each week.

1.)  The upper low associated with the catastrophic flooding in SC will continue to slowly pull away from the area as we progress into Tuesday.  Our thoughts and prayers remain with the fine folks of South Carolina as recovery and clean up begins.  Hard to believe areas of SC were in a significant drought as soon as last week.  Those exact same areas have received as much as 25″-30″ of rain over the past 72 hours.  Simply amazing stuff.

2.)  A series of storm systems will clip the Pacific Northwest with heavy rain and wind as the week progresses- particularly mid week into the weekend.

3.)  A storm system and significant moisture will move through the Four Corners region and into western Texas Wednesday into the weekend.  Heavy rain and localized flooding will result.

4.)  A cold front will move through the Mid West later this week with showers and embedded thunder, along with cooler air for the weekend.

As always, you can follow us on Twitter (@indywx) or e-mail us at bill@indywx.com for more on the variety of weather consulting we provide. Have a great day and God Bless!

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Drought, Flooding, Forecast Discussion, Heavy Rain, T-storms, Windy

Monday Weather Notebook…

October has started off on a dry, cool note. Note the 200%+ anomalies along the eastern seaboard in association with the Nor Easter.     Our thoughts and prayers remain with…

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No Comments Autumn, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm