Category: Heavy Rain

Jun 18

Upcoming Week Headliners…

I. Drier and Cooler Air Returns:  A cold front will pass this evening and allow a much less humid and cooler air mass to return to the state.  Dew points will fall into the 50s by Monday morning and highs should only reach the upper 70s to around 80 Monday afternoon.  Refreshing air will remain in place through the day Tuesday.

A much less humid air mass will arrive to open the work week.

II. Watching the Gulf:  All eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico this week as it tries to breed early season tropical “mischief.”  There are many more questions than answers right now concerning the all-important details (ultimate track and strength), but confidence is high on a depression or storm forming in the Gulf by middle to latter portions of the week.  Early thinking would place more emphasis on this being a big inland rain event across portions of the southeast, as opposed to this thing ramping up fast enough to be a big wind/ surge problem, but stay tuned.

Confidence is high on early season tropical development this week in the Gulf of Mexico.

III. Unsettled Weather Returns:  A storm system will approach the region by the latter portions of the work week, including the weekend.  As a result, a warmer and increasingly moist air mass will return and help spawn showers and thunderstorms.  Unfortunately, timing isn’t our friend as numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast Friday-Sunday.  Locally heavy rain is also a good bet.

Heavy rain and storm chances increase late week.

IV. June Ends On A Cool Note:  Once we get rid of the significant storm next weekend, an unseasonably cool air mass will build in over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley in the 8-10 day time period.  How do highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s sound and lows in the middle 50s?

Models agree on an unseasonably cool close to June.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/upcoming-week-headliners/

Jun 17

Tropical Feel; Stormy Later Tonight…

Highlights:

  • Strong storms late tonight
  • Turning cooler and less humid
  • Unsettled pattern back half of next week

Storms Rumble In Late Tonight…Most of the daytime today will be dry and hot.  High humidity will also be with us and will help boost heat indices into the middle 90s.  Take it easy outdoors today.

We’ll have to keep a close eye on radar trends upstream tonight as a complex of thunderstorms is expected to erupt to our northwest this evening.  This storm complex will track southeast and begin impacting Indiana by late-evening (thinking around 11p, or so, across northwest portions of the state as of now).  As we push into the overnight, these storms will continue to settle southeast, including central Indiana.  A couple of these storms may be strong and with such high moisture content, locally heavy rainfall is, once again, a good bet.

A couple of showers or thunderstorms will be with us Father’s Day, but outdoor plans shouldn’t be cancelled, as most of the day appears to be dry.  It’ll be a cooler day and less humid air will filter into the state Sunday night.  This will produce a glorious open to the work week!

Unsettled weather will return by the middle and latter portions of next week, along with a briefly warmer and more humid feel.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″ 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tropical-feel-stormy-later-tonight/

Jun 14

Another Stormy Day Ahead…

The Storm Prediction Center includes the northwestern portions of the state in a Slight Risk of severe weather later this afternoon and evening.  Given the overall set-up and morning trends from data, it wouldn’t surprise us if this threat expands further southeast in future updates later today from the SPC.

Similar to Tuesday, any storms that develop will be capable of locally heavy rain and flash flooding.  While storms should move in a quicker fashion today, precipitable water values (PWATs) remain downright tropical and will exceed 2″ later this afternoon.

Overall storm coverage should become more widespread as we push into the afternoon and evening hours.  Here’s what the radar may look like during the 4p, 6p, and 10p time frames:

From a severe perspective, the biggest concern is damaging straight line winds with stronger storms.  Remain weather-aware later today, friends!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/another-stormy-day-ahead/

Jun 13

“Soupy” Now, But Changes Loom…

Highlights:

  • Scattered storms remain
  • Oppressive feel
  • Cooler times next week

Locally Heavy Storms…We’ll remain locked into a very warm and moist air mass through the remainder of the week, but there’s light at the end of the tunnel.  If you’re not a fan of the hot, humid weather, hang in there; next week will offer up a much different feel!

Before we discuss the cooler times that loom next week we still have to face several days of muggy weather and daily scattered storms.  With such a “soupy” air mass in place (precipitable water exceeding 2″), any storms will be capable of producing torrential downpours.  Similar to that of today, there will be “haves and have nots” over the next few days, but any storms that develop will have the potential of quickly pulsing to strong to severe levels and producing localized flash flooding.

Once to Sunday, a cold front will sweep through the state and finally wash all of the warm and humid air off to the southeast.  While scattered storms will remain in our forecast through the weekend, a drier and cooler air mass will arrive on the scene early next week.  Hang in there, friends!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″ (locally heavier totals)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/soupy-now-but-changes-loom/

Jun 11

Hot And Humid; Storms Chances Return…

Highlights:

  • Dry conditions continue
  • Hot and turning humid
  • Storm chances return

Tropical Feel Develops…Pleasant air is on borrowed time and we’ll begin to notice an increasingly muggy feel to the air as early as this afternoon.  Dew points will reach oppressive levels Monday into Tuesday (70° and above).  With the increased moisture, isolated thunderstorms will develop Tuesday, but most should still remain rain-free.  Better shower and thunderstorm coverage will be noted Wednesday into Thursday as a frontal system moves through the state.  This won’t be a “uniform” rain, but locally heavy downpours can be expected in the stronger storms.  As dry as we’ve been, we’ll take what we can get.  It’s a start, at the very least, towards a more active second half of June.

We’ll dry things out briefly Friday before another storm system approaches next weekend.  Early indications would suggest next weekend’s storm system will provide more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity.

Tropics:  Interesting times appear to be looming in the Gulf of Mexico as we push into the last couple weeks of the month.  Models continue to paint various scenarios on potential early season tropical development and any one solution can’t be bought just yet.  That said, the overall pattern does seem to want to promote some tropical “mischief” in the coming 10 days, or so.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/hot-and-humid-storms-chances-return/