Jul 13
The Storm Prediction Center continues the Moderate Risk of severe weather for our region today. A busy and potentially dangerous day awaits, including multiple rounds of severe weather, flooding,…
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Jul 12
An update this evening shows severe thunderstorms beginning to ignite over the northern Plains. This is all associated with the first in a series of upper disturbances that will move southeast and provide multiple waves of severe weather around our neck of the woods over the upcoming 24-48 hours.
Data this evening really hasn’t changed from what we think will be a potentially dangerous day of severe weather and flooding across central Indiana. It’ll be highly important to remain weather-aware tomorrow and have a means of getting the latest weather information. Please take all warnings seriously. Conditions are highly favorable for numerous damaging wind reports tomorrow and we suggest taking severe thunderstorm warnings as if they were tornado warnings tomorrow because of this.
* Please understand that though some of the data below includes time stamps for reference of what the radar may look like that these storm complexes often take a mind of their own and can accelerate off to the southeast sometimes quicker than what modeled radar may project 12+ hours out. Tomorrow will certainly be a nowcast situation, beginning early in the morning.
With that said, we forecast multiple waves of severe weather tomorrow, beginning in the morning. With high PWAT values, or precipitable water values, thunderstorms will be capable of producing torrential rainfall and flash flooding. It should be noted that with precipitable water values of over 2″ tomorrow (photo below) combined with recent saturated soils, flash flooding is a major concern.
Speaking of flash flooding, latest data suggests rainfall of only 0.8″-1.5″ within a (3) hr. time period will lead to flash flooding.
Again, keeping in mind with the disclaimer prior, here’s what the radar may look like late morning, mid afternoon, and tomorrow night.
In addition to the aforementioned flash flood concerns, we’re also supremely concerned with the potential of damaging straight line winds, particularly with the 3rd complex of storms Monday evening/ night. Earlier in the day, and depending on how the atmosphere “recovers” with the 1st round of storms Monday morning, conditions are favorable for discrete super cells to develop during the mid afternoon (radar image #2 above). While there are questions, early to mid afternoon would be the most likely time frame for potential tornadic activity and large hail.
To close, please ensure you have a means of getting the latest weather information Monday- beginning early in the morning. Go ahead and charge your phones, tablets, and other electronics. We suggest reviewing your severe weather safety plan with your family this evening to provide a peace of mind, and to ensure you and your loved ones are prepared in the event severe weather and flooding develops.
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Jul 12
Highlights:
A very active weather pattern will remain through the short-term. Overnight storms have exited to the southeast and we’re now dealing with dry weather and sunshine. A few storms could bubble up this afternoon in the very humid air mass, but the more widespread showers and thunderstorms will hold off until late tonight as another northwest to southeast moving complex rumbles in. Similar to early this morning, flash flooding will be a concern, along with the potential of damaging wind, and hail.
Perhaps more concerning is what we think will be a secondary thunderstorm complex Monday evening into Monday night. Furthermore, conditions appear to favor the threat of a couple super cells developing in advance of the big storm cluster. These individual super cells will have the potential of producing tornadoes and large hail. We’re then concerned of a widespread damaging wind threat with the large storm complex as it moves southeast. Torrential rains and flash flooding will also be a big concern.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue Tuesday, but there’s a light at the end of this wet tunnel by mid week. We forecast a few days of dry weather in the Wednesday through Saturday time period. As ridging expands, heat and humidity will build in a big time way. For those holding out for true summer heat, next weekend may be your time! That said, the long range pattern still supports a wetter/ cooler than normal regime quickly returning so enjoy!
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2″-3″ with locally heavier totals
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Jun 09
From time to time we like to post some of our AG weather reports here as opposed to our weekly updates via e-mail. (BTW, if you’re interested in more information around this feature, please e-mail bill@indywx.com).
Rains the past couple of days have been beneficial for many areas that were dry in May. (Here’s a hint, there’s more where that came from).
Unfortunately, some of that heavy rain came with hail damage- particularly across northern IN Monday afternoon.
Abnormally dry conditions have continued to shrink over the region over the past couple weeks. May and early June is a crucial time in setting the tone for the summer/ early fall months ahead. This, of course, is fantastic news.
As we progress ahead into the second half of the week, additional severe threats will present themselves. Similar to Monday, hail and damaging winds are of greatest concerns in our particular Ag-weather viewing area (#IAwx, #INwx, #ILwx, #OHwx).
Day 2- Wednesday
Day 3- Thursday
As we move forward, a very warm to hot and humid pattern will settle in o/ the course of the next 7-14 days (and beyond). In looking at the latest European Weeklies (can’t post here due to licensing issues) the warmer than normal pattern and wetter than normal regime is likely to continue through the rest of the month. It’s not so much the high temperatures in terms of absolutes, but the combination of wet ground (humid and sultry) and warmer overnight lows that will really help power the warmer than normal period in the coming couple weeks.
In the shorter term, heat will really expand across the region mid week, including many of the first 90 degree readings of the season for most folks. The European shows the ridge flexing it’s muscle yet again into early next week.
A very humid time of things will continue, due to the recent wet times and more rain ahead. Aside from the storm threat(s) mid week, Friday into Saturday will also prove to offer a smattering of thunderstorms as a cold front moves in and stalls south before returning north Sunday.
Upcoming 10-day rainfall numbers are respectable, including 2″-3″ totals for many, with locally heavier amounts a good bet where storms train.
Note the wet pattern shown deeper into June off the CFSv2:
The JAMSTEC shows the wet pattern into the heart of the summer (June, July, August) and would argue against any idea of major long-lasting heat for the heart of the summer.
BTW- for you winter lovers out there, here’s a little something to entertain you. The JAMSTEC is onboard for another “fun” winter ahead. Factor in those warm NPAC anomalies and a weakening El Nino into the winter and the stage very well may be set for wintry fun and games… Long way to go here, however… 🙂
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/ag-weather-report-6915/
Jun 09
Highlights:
The big weather story over the second half of the week will be the heat and humidity. Many will reach, or exceed, the 90 degree mark Wednesday and/ or Thursday. We’ll keep a close eye on the northern portions of the state for storms to initialize Wednesday afternoon/ evening. Those at greatest risk for strong to severe storm potential will be from areas along and north of the I-70 corridor Wednesday evening. Damaging winds and hail are of biggest concern.
A cold front will slide into the area Friday and provide better coverage of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and night. Latest model runs then deliver a briefly drier surge of air Saturday and we’ll lean in that direction with our Saturday forecast for now. Don’t get used to the drier air as heat and humidity will be plentiful early next week, along with renewed shower and storm chances.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Potential: 1″ – 1.5″
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