VIDEO: Busy Night Of Severe Weather On Tap…
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Active Severe Weather Night Ahead…
The updated outlook from the Storm Prediction Center shows an expanded “Enhanced Risk” to encompass all of central Indiana.
This morning’s showers and thunderstorms were the first of (3) rounds of storms expected today. Ironically, most of the daytime hours should be rain and storm-free. We’ll note scattered showers and thunderstorms across northern portions of the state this afternoon, as a warm front continues to lift north.
As we progress into the overnight hours tonight into Wednesday morning, that’s when we’re most concerned for potential severe weather impacts to central Indiana. Short-term, high resolution, modeling continues to suggest individual storms (perhaps super cells) will develop around midnight across the region. These would include all modes of severe weather, including the potential of large hail and a tornado.
Finally, our severe weather threat will come to an end with the passage of a squall line during the pre-dawn hours Wednesday morning. The biggest threat with this line of storms will be damaging wind, but a quick spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out either.
With the majority of this event occurring when most are sleeping, please have a way to get the latest information on watches and warnings that are sure to come tonight. We highly encourage everyone to have a weather radio, and be sure to set the alert mode to “on” before bedtime tonight.
We’ll be back this evening with a fresh 7-day update! Make it a great Tuesday!
Unseasonably Warm And Stormy Weather Gives Way To Late Week Chill…
Monday evening is running much warmer than this time Sunday across most of the central, including right here in Indiana.
This warmer regime is the sign of stormy times that will develop as we move into Tuesday. An initial round of showers and thunderstorms will impact central Indiana Tuesday morning and the HRRR forecast radar is picking up on this nicely, especially during the predawn hours.
The wet, stormy start to the day will give way to a mostly dry time of things through the majority of the daylight hours Tuesday, but our concentration will be on the Tuesday night-Wednesday morning period, as the potential exists for some rather turbulent weather.
We note the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center outlines all of the region for the chance of severe weather Tuesday night and also note the possibility the “enhanced” risk area may expand in future updates. Additionally, given some of the ingredients we’re observing this evening, there’s also the possibility we may see an upgrade to a “moderate” risk for portions of the region. It’ll be particularly important to pay attention to weather updates Tuesday night. Primary concerns are for large hail and damaging winds in a possible squall line that develops ahead of an approaching cold front. Additionally, if storms develop ahead of the primary line of storms, the potential exists for a couple of tornadoes. Have a means of getting the latest watches and warnings Tuesday night.
Modeled radar suggests things may begin to get “busy” around these parts late evening and during the overnight. The latest high resolution NAM (hot off the press as of this update) paints a rather ominous look as midnight nears Wednesday morning.
We then note modeling bringing the squall line through central Indiana during the overnight and predawn hours. We’ll have to fine tune timing as we move through the day Tuesday, but we bracket the hours of 2a and 6a when a concentrated line of strong to severe storms rumbles through the state (northwest to southeast). Hail and damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but a quick spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out.
Our weather will turn quieter, but colder, as Wednesday progresses into Wednesday evening, including blustery conditions with falling temperatures.
A fast-moving clipper system will dive southeast Thursday evening into early Friday morning and this could produce a snow shower, or two, across the region, but shouldn’t amount to much from a snow perspective (keeping true to the tune of the winter, heh?). The bigger story will be the “rude” feel to the air mass as we wrap up the work week, as highs only reach the upper 30s with a gusty wind.
That said, the chilly late week conditions won’t last long, and a gusty southwesterly air flow will develop as early as Saturday. This will help give temperatures a significant boost Saturday afternoon after a cold start to the day. 60° is possible Saturday afternoon and the mercury may approach 70° Sunday!
More updates in the AM! Have a great night, friends!
Severe T-storms This Evening Give Way To Much Colder Air This Weekend…
Highlights:
- Record warmth
- Severe t-storm potential this evening
- Scattered snow showers Saturday
- Active pattern next week
Focused On Severe Weather This Evening…Though the day is beginning on a quiet note, we’re concerned it might not end that way, as strong to severe thunderstorms impact central Indiana this afternoon and evening. The sunshine this morning is actually something that adds further concern for the potential of explosive thunderstorm development later today. More specifically, we’re bracketing the hours of 4p and 10p for the likelihood of storms impacting central parts of the state (west to east), and some of these may become severe. All modes of severe weather are in play today, including large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Please have a means of getting the latest warning information and ensure you know your family’s severe plan. Otherwise, we forecast to shatter the record high today as we zoom all the way into the middle 70s with a gusty southerly wind.
Winter will return with authority tonight and set-up a much colder weekend. That high in the upper 40s Saturday will actually come at midnight with falling temperatures (most of the daytime hours will feature low-mid 30s with ‘chills in the 20s), windy conditions, and scattered snow showers.
A weak weather system is looking less and less impressive for the second half of the weekend, but we’ll continue to keep a chance of light rain in our forecast by evening.
Better rain chances will begin to ramp up Monday evening and become widespread Tuesday, including the possibility of thunderstorms, as well. The second half of next week will trend colder…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: Trace
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
Looking At Friday’s Severe Set-Up…
An updated 7-day forecast will hit later today. This morning we wanted to take the time to dig in a little deeper on Friday’s severe weather threat.
Severe Weather Outlook:
This morning the latest update from the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has expanded the ‘Enhanced Risk’ of severe weather Friday. This includes all of central Indiana.
Summary:
A sub 1000 mb surface low pressure system will track northeast from northern MO (Friday morning) to central MI (Saturday morning). Ahead of this, a warm front will lift north through central IN and into lower MI Friday afternoon. A strong cold front will be located near the MS River Friday morning and barrel eastward, sweeping the state Friday night.
Unseasonably warm and moist air will be drawn northward and encompass the entire region Friday. Forecast highs should break records tomorrow and be in the lower-middle 70s for most of the region (thinking we see plentiful sunshine during the daytime hours). Dew points will near 60°. Considering this is late February, those are impressive ingredients coming into play. The added sunshine tomorrow is actually a bad thing as it will add “fuel to the fire,” so to speak, and help play a role in potentially explosive thunderstorm development Friday evening.
Surface-based CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is modeled to reach between 1200-1600 J/kg Friday evening across the region.
Threats and Timing:
Most of Friday is going to be quiet, but it’s as we move into Friday afternoon and evening that we’ll need to keep close eyes to the sky and radar. The potential exists for individual super cells to develop out ahead of an eastward-advancing line of thunderstorms Friday evening. All modes of severe weather are possible Friday evening, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. As of now, we bracket the hours of 4p and 10p for the period where severe weather may be impacting portions of central IN.
As mentioned yesterday, we highly recommend reviewing your family’s severe weather safety plan and ensure weather radios are charged with warning modes “on” Friday.