Feb 24
We touch on the potential winter storm brewing in the Sunday-Monday time period in this video. A significant winter storm is brewing for some and we cover some initial thoughts…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/old-man-winter-is-back-did-he-ever-leave/
Feb 16
Quick post tonight just to alert you that early model runs off the 0z suite of data suggests less of a snow threat and more of freezing rain/ sleet…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/early-0z-runs-trending-more-icy-vs-snowy/
Feb 12
There’s no doubt we’re looking at a brief pattern change next week that will result in air temperatures that will have many of you craving spring. That said, the key word in that sentence is “brief” and a colder, more wintry pattern looks to return to wrap up February and head into March.
Before we discuss the return of the cold and potentially wintry regime for late month, let’s focus on the milder conditions. Data suggests we may be looking at highs zooming all the way into the lower to middle 60s towards the 20th-23rd time period. The spring tease is likely to come at a cost as the milder southerly breezes likely result in lots of dense fog and areas of drizzle as a deep snowpack remains locked in place. Flooding concerns may also become a concern next week, especially if we inject moderate to heavy rain into the region. 10-day rainfall numbers do have to make us a little nervous as a blend of model data suggests 1″-1.5″ down between now and the 22nd. We’ll continue to monitor things.
Finally, it should be noted that while a brief “relaxation” of the seemingly unending winter is on the way, the long term pattern continues to suggest a cold and wintry time of things continues overall. Next week appears to be an “island of warmth in a sea of cold” type pattern. Latest ensemble data continues to back this idea up. That’s not saying we’re going to deal with the type of severe cold we’ve seen over the past several weeks, but instead means we’re going to go back below normal as we get set to wrap up February and head into March.
The latest GFS ensembles show the evolution of things well. The “double secret probation” European model also shows something similar.
Note the ridge and associated spring “tease” is replaced with a cold and more wintry looking eastern trough rather quickly. Circle the 24th on your calendar for the potential of a widespread storm system. Far too early for details or questions, but the pattern looks to produce some busy times around this point. Before that we have plenty of weather in front of us to deal with… weekend snow opportunities, foggy/ drizzly weather to accompany the initial surge of milder air next week, and a spring tease by late next week!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/next-weeks-spring-tease-is-just-that-a-tease/
Feb 10
After a dry period through early to mid week, our weather pattern will begin to turn active yet again as we head into late week and this weekend. Three of our more trusted mid range computer models handle the individual impulses of energy differently and the snow potential ranges anywhere from nothing more than 1″ to as much as 10″ in the Friday-Tuesday period. Most likely, we’re looking at something somewhere in the middle.
Our first chance of accumulating snow arrives Friday. Both the European forecast model and Canadian forecast model agree on this, while the latest GFS takes the same energy through the Great Lakes, missing our region entirely. We feel the GFS may be in error mode here. While it’s possible the GFS may lead the way (anything is possible this far off), we feel the EC and Canadian have a better handle on things and we’ve based our forecast (post below) off a blend of these two models for Friday, including accumulating snow.
Our next shot of accumulating snow blows in Saturday. All three models agree on this, but handle the track of the low, another clipper system, differently. The Canadian tracks the low south of IND, strengthens it on it’s journey east and results in a full blown snow storm here Saturday. The GFS and EC remain weaker and track the low across central or northern parts of the state, with much lighter snow amounts here.
You can find your completed 7-Day forecast in the post below this one. Finally, there are some signs the pattern may begin to relax and allow a milder brand of air into the region around the 20th. We caution though that this won’t be a “suddenly it’s spring” pattern, but rather a tease of sorts as longer term signals suggest a wintry regime returns late February into March…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/watching-the-pattern-turn-active-yet-again/
Feb 02
As we continue to draw ever closer to our next significant winter storm, we wanted to provide some of our latest thoughts. This isn’t a post that will hash out snowfall accumulation ideas or precipitation types, but instead will provide details on our expected track and potential liquid equivalent precipitation amounts. With so much hype and hoopla around this storm for the past couple weeks, lets just sit back and look at the “bigger” picture, as opposed to trying to sort out details that, quite frankly, are still too early to lay out with any certainty as I write this late Friday night
Here’s our (IndyWx.com) expected track of the low Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday afternoon. We used a blend of the GFS, European, and Canadian operational model data, as well as the GFS and European ensemble data sets. We think surface low pressure tracks out of northeastern Mississippi (Tuesday evening) through north-central Kentucky (Wednesday morning), and into Pennsylvania (Wednesday night) before a secondary low forms off the northeast coastline.
This is an ideal track for a winter storm across central Indiana, but specifics such as strength and depth of the cold air, potential southern convection, and forward motion of the storm will have to be sorted out over the next day, or so. Early indications are that while this storm will take a “good” track for winter weather lovers here across central Indiana, the speed in which the system will be moving may reduce snow and ice accumulations from what they otherwise could be. That said…early raw numbers suggest .50″ to .80″ amounts (liquid equivalent) could fall in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame which is significant. Case in point, a standard 10:1 ratio that would suggest 5 to 8 inches of snow- assuming the form of precipitation fell as snow through the entire duration. Again, that is far from a certainty at this point.
Ignoring items such as model snowfall forecasts and precipitation types, just looking at the expected track would suggest central Indiana is very much in the game for a potentially significant and disruptive winter storm Tuesday into Wednesday. We’ll have to fine tune precise amounts and precipitation types in the next day or two. Additionally, much colder air (below zero once again at night) may blow into the state behind this storm for mid and late week before we gear up for yet another winter weather maker heading into next weekend. We still have a long way to go in this pattern…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/more-thoughts-on-our-next-winter-storm/