Where We’ve Been And Where We’re Going…

It was a cold winter across the Lower 48, including Indiana:

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March has followed suite, month-to-date:  Cold continues for the majority of the upcoming week, but we note moderating late week temperatures.

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It’s been dry as of late, but after a snowy winter, the region is doing just fine from a drought perspective.  We note abnormally dry conditions west:

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Latest CFSv2 data points to a wet spring ahead.  We also note the latest European weeklies suggesting a potentially “busy” 1st half of April, including a couple of “bowling ball” systems of note.  With the changing seasons, it’s not unusual to see big spring cut off lows slowly moving through portions of the country.

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Note the GFS (7-day) and Canadian (10-day) precipitation forecast:

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We also are still forecasting light snow Tuesday.  Most of this won’t accumulate with the high sun angle and low snowfall rates, but a brief coating to less than an inch is possible in spots:

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More Active Changes In Store…

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Forecast Updated 03.13.14 @ 7:39a

Thankful For That March Sun…It’ll be a frigid start to your Thursday with many reports of lower teens across the region, including wind chill values around zero.  That said, that strong March sun angle will help temperatures zoom to near 40 with a mostly sunny sky Thursday afternoon.

We’ll do even better than that on Friday, once again with a mostly sunny sky.  We’ll introduce a strong southwest wind into the mix Friday, but this will be a warmer breeze so we’ll take the trade off, right?!  Needless to say, we’ll wrap up the work week with beautiful conditions!

Colder Weekend; Watching A Southern Storm…After another mostly pleasant Saturday, a cold front will blow through here Saturday afternoon.  At the same time, we’ll keep our eyes on a developing wet southern storm system.  Latest guidance keeps this storm south of our region, but we’ll keep an eye on things.  A light shower is possible Saturday morning.  Colder air will blow into town Saturday night and Sunday.

Headaches Next Week…Model solutions vary wildly for next week.  Case in point, the Wednesday afternoon run off the powerful European forecast model suggests a snow storm and cold conditions Tuesday into early Wednesday.  All the while, the GFS takes the storm along the Canadian border and results in a much warmer and drier solution here with highs near 60.  We’re leaning more towards the European in this situation, but not fully buying in just yet to the locked and loaded snow storm solution.

It’s important to note the GFS operational run doesn’t agree with it’s own ensembles so this is one of the main drivers with us at least “leaning” more towards the European solution at this juncture.  We’ll make sure that we keep a close eye on the Tuesday-Wednesday period and update accordingly.  For now we’re going with a rain-to-snow situation Tuesday with potentially accumulating snow falling Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

* This morning we note the European is onto a warmer solution, as well, but before we change our forecast all over the place, we prefer to look over afternoon data and will update things accordingly later this evening for next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1-3″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″

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A Look At Where We’ve Been And Where We’re Going…

The region has been under the influence of a cold eastern trough month to date with a brief relaxation taking place presently. The frigid March start and anomalously cold east…

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Sunday Afternoon Update: Awesome Stretch Of Weather Before Dramatic Changes.

Good Sunday afternoon!  We’re enjoying beautiful weather and conditions will only improve Monday into Tuesday.  That said, a potential winter storm looms Wednesday.  Additionally, we’re keeping a close eye on…

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Saturday Morning Thoughts…

Good morning and happy Saturday!  A weak weather system will move through the region and produce a couple of light showers this afternoon, but won’t be a big deal.  Rain will end as a couple of snow flakes.  Overall precipitation totals look less and less impressive with each model run, which wasn’t impressive to begin with.  Needless to say, don’t be concerned by any sort of significant rain or snow today.

Latest simulated radar off the NAM and HRRR shows the band of light precipitation pushing through the state this afternoon.

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While we’ll have a brief “set back” in the temperature department this weekend, early next week continues to look downright mild and very spring like.  Note our region flirting with 60s.  Impressively, a budding area of 70-degree warmth is expanding to our west.

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Details remain quite sketchy in regards to nailing down the storm the middle of next week with any sort of confidence.  While we’ll continue to sort through the data and gain a better understanding of things over the weekend, we’re confident on a colder regime returning by the middle of next week.  Note the trough per the GFS ensembles returning to the east.  Much more later!

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