Category: GFS

Historic Snow Season Keeps Rolling Along…

The winter of 2013-2014 is off to a rip-roaring start and, as we’ve discussed in previous posts, the mid to long range data suggests we remain locked in an exceptionally cold and snowy pattern.  Officially, as of this evening, the Indianapolis National Weather Service has posted some impressive stats (the full report can be found here), including:

  • Through Jan. 21st, the 24.4″ of snow ranks as the 3rd snowiest January on record.
  • Through Jan. 21st, the season-to-date snowfall of 33.2″ ranks as the 2nd highest on record in the period Dec. 1st through Jan. 21st.
  • Through Jan. 21st, the season-to-date snowfall of 33.2″ ranks as the 8th snowiest on record for an entire winter season.

As we look ahead to the upcoming 7-10 day period, we note a continuation of arctic reinforcements- each which will be plenty capable of adding to the snowfall total.  Additionally, our cold air mass will only grow even more severe and bitter over time, including multiple days during the aforementioned period where central Indiana will go below zero.  Finally, there have been many questions concerning a potential big storm centered on early February.  I’m not sure where this rumor started, but it’s far too early to say with any sort of confidence any specifics around a possible big winter storm early February.  That said, as we’ll get into briefly below, the pattern does appear to be aligning itself in a way where a widespread winter storm is possible somewhere across the eastern half of the country.

Okay, okay, back to the near term…  Let’s start with tomorrow!  After a cold and dry start to the day, our next arctic front will blow into the region during the evening.  Arctic fronts are notorious for having bursts of heavy snow rates in a scattered fashion and this appears to be the case as the next arctic front moves through Wednesday evening.  We bracket the hours of 5p-8p for the possibility of heavy snow bursts racing through central Indiana.  While these won’t last long, they’ll likely be intense- capable of depositing a quick 1″-2″ of new snow on a gusty northwest wind within 30-60 minutes.  White-out conditions and extremely heavy snowfall rates will accompany the heavier bursts of snow.  Latest high-resolution model data shows the heavy snow bursts accompanying the arctic front tomorrow evening:

hires_ref_indy_31

Thursday will be mostly dry and frigid, but all eyes will then begin to turn to our next significant winter event Friday into Saturday.  The pressure gradient between high pressure across the Mississippi River Valley and the next approaching arctic front (and associated low pressure) will really being to kick up the wind across our region Friday.  We’re afraid we deal with another round of severe blowing and drifting snow Friday, especially Friday afternoon and night.  Areas most suspect to drifting and blowing snow will be central Indiana’s open country and may not be too different from the problems our region dealt with Sunday into Monday morning from blowing and drifting.

As we approach Friday night into Saturday, snow will overspread the region and will likely accumulate to the tune of a “few inches” during this time period.  Strong winds will remain, shifting from the west to the northwest and eventually north.  Open country will remain the prime place for continued severe blowing and drifting problems.

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Just as soon as Saturday’s snow systems exits stage right, we turn our attention to potentially another significant snow maker for the second half of the weekend.  Latest model data remains consistent on moving another potent clipper system into our region Sunday, including the GFS and Canadian forecast models.  We still have time to fine tune the precise track of the storm, but just north of the low’s track an additional 3-5″ type snow is possible Sunday.  Note the GFS and Euro in relative agreement on the track of the low, with the Canadian currently a touch further north. We’ll fine tune in the days ahead…  Experience with similar patterns from the past suggests central Indiana should brace for more accumulating snow Sunday.

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As for the brutal cold, we note multiple pushes of fresh arctic air behind each snow maker.  We currently target Thursday morning, Friday morning, Tuesday morning, next Wednesday morning, and next Friday morning as having the most likely shot at dipping below zero. The “coldest of the cold” likely means Tuesday morning takes the crown, with lows potentially dipping into the double-digit below zero range for central Indiana.  The European forecast model (below) even shows sub-zero temperatures making it as far south as the southern Appalachians.

As we look even longer term, there have been many questions centered on the potential of a big winter storm for early February.  Before we go any further, we want to stress it’s far too early to make any claim of certainty to the above.  That said, there are items we can pick up on to a least “raise an eyebrow” that something of significance may be brewing… Do we mean for anyone to take that verbatim and to the bank?  Absolutely not.

The European Weeklies suggest we need to keep an eye on the first week of February.  They show a potential phasing of the jet (where the northern and southern streams of the jet stream phase together- often times resulting in a big storm)… That said, we want to again stress this is far too early to be discussing with any sort of certainty.  Heh, the next week will keep us busy enough!

Keep the shovel handy!  Snow removal companies, thank you for your service and hard work…hopefully you have plenty of coffee on hand!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/historic-snow-season-keeps-rolling-along/

Reviewing The Snowy Details…

After a brief thaw, winter’s set to return with authority in the days and weeks ahead.  In fact, the overall long range weather pattern looks colder and snowier than average into early February, at least.

A current look at the National Radar shows the next clipper system taking shape to our northwest this evening.

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A dive into the latest model data continues to highlight two distinct opportunities for accumulating snowfall in the days ahead.  The first comes Thursday into Friday while the second (potentially more robust) snow maker arrives Saturday afternoon and evening.  By the way, my hat’s off to the GFS for jumping on Saturday’s system well in advance of the other modeling.  Sometimes it’s easy to hammer the GFS, but it should be pointed out during the model’s shining moments, as well.

Back to the near-term… We think widespread snow overspreads central Indiana Thursday morning and continues through the majority of the day and on into Friday in varied intensity.  By the time all is said and done, 2-4″ of new snowfall will be likely across central Indiana, with some locally higher amounts possible.

Here’s a look at the latest HRRR simulated radar valid 10am Thursday. Some moderate to briefly heavy snow is possible late morning into the afternoon.

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Of interest, we note forecast models carrying a vigorous upper level disturbance across the state Thursday night/early Friday and this will help carry accumulating snow into Friday for some.

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We’ll note an intrusion of briefly drier air Friday afternoon into Saturday morning, but by this time all eyes will be focused on the next clipper system that promises to keep snow shovels and plows busy for parts of Indiana into the weekend.  We think snow overspreads the region from northwest to southeast Saturday afternoon and evening.  Steadiest snow falls Saturday night and could accumulate to the tune of a few inches by daybreak Sunday within the axis of best moisture.  Just to the north of the clipper’s track will be where you find the highest snow totals with Saturday’s system and the precise track of this clipper will be tough to iron out with any sort of certainty until Friday evening.  Stay tuned.  By the way, the snowy and cold events keep on keepin’ on in the longer range…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/reviewing-the-snowy-details/

Cold, Snowy Pattern Reloading…

I sure hope you’ve taken time to get out and enjoy a couple of days of milder air (temperatures have run 10-12 degrees above seasonal levels the past couple days) and even some sunshine.  Given what I see coming down the road, the trend that looks to take a colder turn this week may really go into the tank week two.

Here’s an overview of the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble data out at Days 8 through 10 (January 21st-23rd).  Both of these, more trusted, mid to long range computer models suggest a cold pattern locks itself into the East once again, and spells for colder than average temperatures and potentially a snowier than normal regime.

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We’ll now dive a little deeper into the forecast model vault, courtesy of the unbelievable Weatherbell Analytics model suite (can’t brag on that company enough).  We’re looking at the Northern Hemisphere Upper Air Pattern, courtesy of the European ensemble control run from this afternoon.

Note the mid week trough set to deliver a return of arctic air into the region.  That’s reinforced with a late week trough and renewed arctic air.  Both cold air masses will be capable of producing light accumulating snow across the area.

Per yesterday’s post, as we get into the early to middle portion of next week, we’ll have to keep a close eye on the potential of the southern and northern branches of the jet stream phasing, which would lead to a significant winter storm across some parts of the eastern half of the country (far too early for specifics or details).

We then note the Polar Vortex recharges itself and threatens to turn the last week to 10 days of January very cold.  How cold is yet to be determined, but I think it’s a safe bet sub-zero temperatures aren’t finished with our area just yet.

Intrusions of very cold arctic air will “pinwheel” around the Polar Vortex and likely lead to a bitterly cold end of January and open to February…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/cold-snowy-pattern-reloading/

Bet On The Colder Look…

Sometimes in life there are things much more important than the weather and so has been the case the past few days. Moving forward, posts will be a bit erratic,…

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Rare And Potentially Crippling Winter Storm Brewing…

Fresh on the heels of a significant winter storm that impacted central Indiana Wednesday night-Thursday, we’re eyeing our next winter storm and, quite frankly, it could be a memorable one.

We continue to keep a close eye on the pending winter storm Sunday and remain impressed with what we see.  A severe winter storm is brewing and may require blizzard watches and warnings before all is said and done as a combination of heavy snow, strong winds, and severe blowing and drifting promises to make travel difficult, if not impossible, for some areas Sunday.

Setting the stage:

A powerful arctic boundary will drift south towards Indiana Saturday night and Sunday morning.  As this takes place, low pressure will track off the lee of the Rockies and move east, northeast.  Model data continues to suggest this area of low pressure taps into some Gulf of Mexico moisture and really begins to deepen (strengthen) as it tracks into the central/ eastern Ohio Valley Sunday.  To the northwest of the low’s track, a deep blanket of fresh snow will fall.  As the winter storm departs, the coldest air since 1994 will pour into the region on a gusty northwest wind.  Temperatures will reach record territory, and downright dangerous levels, by Monday and Tuesday.

Last night we mentioned a couple of things going “for” and “against” a major winter storm here in central Indiana.  While there’s no doubt going to be a sharp “cut off” of heavy snow with this storm, this “cut off zone” is most likely well north and west of central Indiana.  Additionally, the impressive thermal gradient between the brutal arctic air mass to the north and the warmer air (relatively speaking) to the south and east will only add fuel to a deepening storm moving northeast into the Ohio Valley.  Finally, with arctic air pouring into the region, the “fluff effect” will be in full-go mode, meaning the northwest flank of the heavy precipitation is likely to have snow ratios of 15:1 as compared to the “normal” 10:1 ratio.  This will be very important to watch as the system develops and will most likely be the spot (far too early to pinpoint at this juncture) where snowfall amounts in excess of one foot will fall.

All of our medium range model data is in agreement on central Indiana receiving quite the blow from Old Man Winter Sunday.  Here’s a look at the latest GFS, European, and Canadian forecast models, valid Sunday afternoon:

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As you can see, there’s excellent agreement and this leads to a rather high confidence idea on a high-impact and rather rare severe winter storm set to impact Indiana.  Can we tell you with certainty exactly where the 12″+ band of snow will lie across the state?  Not at this time.  That said, we suggest preparing now for a rare and potentially crippling winter storm Sunday.  The combination of heavy snow, strong winds, historic cold, and severe blowing and drifting will make for an extremely dangerous situation Sunday, continuing into early next week.  Temperatures by Tuesday morning will approach 20 degrees below zero, with wind chill values plummeting to 40-50 degrees below zero Monday into Tuesday…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/rare-and-potentially-crippling-winter-storm-brewing/