Category Archives: GFS

Saturday Morning Weather Chit-Chat!

A beautiful weekend is underway.  Stepping out on the deck this morning for my morning coffee was much more refreshing when compared to the past few days.  Dew points in the 40s along with temperatures around 60 made for a very nice feel this morning.

This morning’s visible satellite shows clear skies continue.  Definitely plan to get outside today, but with that sun screen!

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Most of Sunday will be nice, as well, but clouds and humidity levels will increase Sunday afternoon and evening and a couple of showers and thunderstorms will be possible as early as Sunday night.

Future radar shows scattered thunderstorms around the region Sunday night.

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Warmth and humidity will return to oppressive levels for the better part of next week and this will help add fuel to the fire for heavy rain and potentially strong thunderstorms.  Model data handles the timing differently with next week’s storm system (as is usual at this stage), but agrees on the heavy rain potential.  Widespread 1.5″ to 2″ rainfall appears to be a good bet at this point next week.

Upcoming 10 day rainfall potential, per the Canadian forecast model, shows the wet pattern unfolding, including excessive rains for some locales.

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The GFS (below) pushes the front south a bit quicker and in return delivers drier air next weekend.  The European forecast model doesn’t agree.

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Also of interest, the GFS continues to spin up Gulf of Mexico “mischief” late next week…

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7-Day Outlook, European Model, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Heavy Rain, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm

Another Nice Weekend In The Middle Of An Unsettled Pattern…

The upcoming 7-10 days looks unsettled overall and quite wet.  That said, we’re set to enjoy another beautiful weekend with a refreshing northeast breeze in play.  We discuss this and look deeper into the month of June in this evening’s video update below!

Latest model data suggests widespread 2-3" of rain could fall across central Indiana over the course of the upcoming 7-10 days.
Latest model data suggests widespread 2-3″ of rain could fall across central Indiana over the course of the upcoming 7-10 days.

7-Day Outlook, Canadian Model, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Heavy Rain, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles, Weather Videos

Catching Up On A Monday Morning!

Happy Monday!  Here’s hoping everyone had a great weekend!  The week ahead will feature a much warmer, muggier regime as early as Tuesday.  Rain chances will increase Wednesday night into Thursday (early indications are for around half an inch of rain).  We’ll then (thankfully) dry things out and introduce a very pleasant air mass heading into the all-important Memorial Day and Race weekend.  We’ll have a full 7-day forecast posted here later this evening.  Make it a great Monday!

Southerly winds will transport 80 degree type air and a more humid feel by Tuesday and Wednesday.
Southerly winds will transport 80 degree type air and a more humid feel by Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

A cold front will deliver best rain chances of the week Wednesday night into Thursday.
A cold front will deliver best rain chances of the week Wednesday night into Thursday.

 

7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Memorial Day weekend, Race Weekend, Rain, Unseasonably Warm

Smorgasbord Of Weather!

Posts this weekend will be a bit “off schedule” as I celebrate my brother’s graduation.  That said, posts will hit the site over the weekend and we’ll also keep you updated on our Twitter feed- @indywx.  A busy time of things lies ahead and a very active weather pattern will carry us into this time next week.  Let’s get into some of the details!

1.) (2) rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be likely Friday.  Weakening showers and embedded thunder will dissipate moving into central Indiana Friday morning.  That said, depending on the amount of clearing that takes place behind the first wave of showers and storms will go a long way into determining the severity of round two Friday evening.  The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) continues to highlight our area for a Slight Risk of severe weather (primary threats are large hail and damaging straight line winds) Friday evening.  We also note the latest high resolution NAM simulated radar shows potential strong to severe thunderstorms moving in tomorrow evening.

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2.) A second heavy rain and storm maker will arrive early next week. The Gulf of Mexico is open for business and suggests some locally heavy downpours are a good bet with both storms.  This isn’t bad news as it’s been dry as of late.  We’re now on day 9 without measurable precipitation and that will be changing in a big way over the upcoming 7 day period.  Widespread 2″-2.5″ rains are a good bet over the upcoming week, including some locally heavier totals.

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The detailed video discussion below covers more on the severe chances, heavy rain threat, and a much cooler pattern ahead!

7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Heavy Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Videos