Category: GFS

Unsettled Stretch Ahead…

Sun.

Mon.

Tue.

Wed.

Thr.

Fri.

Sat.

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-clouds-icon

 Status-weather-storm-night-icon

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-showers-day-icon

 Status-weather-clouds-icon

59/ 75

55/ 77

62/ 75

66/ 76

66/ 77

61/ 75

55/ 78 

Light

– – –

Light

Light

Light

Light

– – –

Showers and thunderstorms will rumble into central Indiana during the overnight hours.  While some short term forecast models suggest some hefty rainfall totals, we think what’s more than likely to happen is that most neighborhoods see around one half inch late tonight into the wee morning hours Sunday.  There will be some locally heavier totals reported closer to 1″, but that will be the exception to the rule!  The local air mass is just so dry (as of this evening dew points are still in the lower 50s across central Indiana) and while moisture will increase through the night, it’ll likely be too little too late.  Regardless, don’t be surprised if a rumble of thunder wakes you during the overnight. Some early showers are possible Sunday, otherwise the theme will be a drier one through the day.  While some of our short-term forecast models suggest showers are around Monday, we’re siding more with the GFS and European models and providing a dry start to the work week (we’ll continue to monitor and update if needed Sunday).

The rest of the work week will feature a busy time of things in the good ole forecast office as we track multiple disturbances.  Each one of these will be capable of producing heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms.  As of now, we’re forecasting heavier rain Tuesday and Friday, but we’ll fine tune the timing as we move forward.

Finally, as we move into next weekend, there are considerable model difference between the GFS and European forecast model.  For now, we’re splitting it down the middle and going with dry skies along with comfortable temperatures Saturday.  Model numbers vary from the upper 40s (GFS) to middle 50s (EC) for overnight lows and lower 70s (GFS) to middle 80s (EC).

More later, friends!  Have a relaxing evening!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/unsettled-stretch-ahead/

Wednesday Evening Video Update; Drier, Cooler Air Coming!

Good evening, friends.  Here’s a video update as we get set to welcome a cooler, drier regime into central Indiana to wrap up the work week.  Additionally, we’re also tracking another potential heavy rain maker for the second half of the weekend (not that we need more heavy rain)….

PS: The IndyWx.com mascots have attempted more times than not to interrupt my video updates, so I only thought it was time to give them a little face time.  Meet Cameron (left) and Newton (right).

10389646_756078747757579_4757052835498909820_n

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wednesday-evening-video-update-drier-cooler-air-coming/

Monday Morning Video Update; Severe Weather Potential And Heavy Rain…

An active few days lie ahead though it won’t rain and storm the entire time, and many dry hours can be expected over the course of the next few days.  The video covers the details below!

Tuesday is shaping up to be a very active severe weather day to our west.

Tuesday is shaping up to be a very active severe weather day to our west.

Wednesday will feature severe weather chances across the Ohio Valley.

Wednesday will feature severe weather chances across the Ohio Valley.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/monday-morning-video-update-severe-weather-potential-and-heavy-rain/

Sunday Morning Video Update; Storms Arrive This Evening.

We discuss the regime change from the low humidity, dry, feel to our air mass to one that turns increasingly muggy through the afternoon.  This sets the stage for a rainy, stormy week upcoming.  We think thunderstorms fire across central Indiana as early as 5-6 o’clock this evening.

Future scan radar suggests thunderstorms erupt as early as 5-6pm across central Indiana.

Future scan radar suggests thunderstorms erupt as early as 5-6pm across central Indiana.

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-morning-video-update-storms-arrive-this-evening/

Saturday Morning Weather Chit-Chat!

A beautiful weekend is underway.  Stepping out on the deck this morning for my morning coffee was much more refreshing when compared to the past few days.  Dew points in the 40s along with temperatures around 60 made for a very nice feel this morning.

This morning’s visible satellite shows clear skies continue.  Definitely plan to get outside today, but with that sun screen!

20140531_1145_EVV_vis

Most of Sunday will be nice, as well, but clouds and humidity levels will increase Sunday afternoon and evening and a couple of showers and thunderstorms will be possible as early as Sunday night.

Future radar shows scattered thunderstorms around the region Sunday night.

hires_ref_indy_43

Warmth and humidity will return to oppressive levels for the better part of next week and this will help add fuel to the fire for heavy rain and potentially strong thunderstorms.  Model data handles the timing differently with next week’s storm system (as is usual at this stage), but agrees on the heavy rain potential.  Widespread 1.5″ to 2″ rainfall appears to be a good bet at this point next week.

Upcoming 10 day rainfall potential, per the Canadian forecast model, shows the wet pattern unfolding, including excessive rains for some locales.

cmc_total_precip_ma_41

The GFS (below) pushes the front south a bit quicker and in return delivers drier air next weekend.  The European forecast model doesn’t agree.

gfs_ptype_slp_east_20

Also of interest, the GFS continues to spin up Gulf of Mexico “mischief” late next week…

gfs_ptype_slp_east_33

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/saturday-morning-weather-chit-chat/