Category Archives: GFS

Well-Advertised Major Changes Waiting On Deck…

Thursday will begin the major shift from relatively mild and stable weather that we’ve enjoyed for the past week and a half to one that’s drastically different, and much more resemblant of November by Saturday.

First rain drops will likely splatter on wind shields as early as the morning commute across central Indiana.

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We’ll then see a “lull” in the action through the majority of the day before more widespread showers and embedded strong to severe thunderstorms rumble in Thursday night into Friday morning.  Here’s a look at forecast radar Friday morning.

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The Storm Prediction Center does highlight western sections of the state for a Slight Risk of severe weather Thursday.  We’ll continue to monitor things closely.  Localized damaging straight line wind is the primary severe threat in the highlighted risk area.

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We also want to highlight Friday afternoon and evening for another round of showers and embedded thunder.

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Rainfall totals should reach between 1″-2″ with locally heavier amounts between the period of Thursday morning and Saturday morning.

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The rain and gusty storms will fall ahead of a strong autumn cold front that will send temperatures on a rapid downward trend come Friday night.  A deep trough will carve itself out over the eastern region Saturday and ultimately have temperatures all the way to the Gulf Coast feeling November-ish by Saturday (perfect football weather, IMO).

By the way, the record low max will be in jeopardy Saturday (49 degrees, courtesy of Sean Ash) as many central Indiana communities may struggle to make it out of the 40s for highs with considerable cloudiness, pesky drizzle, and gusty winds.  Have the jackets and sweaters ready, friends!

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Autumn, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Heavy Rain, HRRR, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Weekly Outlook: Pleasant, But Big Changes Hit Late Week…

– What a beauty of a Sunday evening underway! Temperatures across the Ohio Valley and Mid West are running 15°-20° above where we’d expect them. The recent dry, warm stretch…

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7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Canadian Model, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook: Cool Start, Mild Finish

A secondary cold front is moving into central Indiana this afternoon with clouds, gusty northerly breezes, and fresh cool air. Speaking of cool, September, so far, has been cooler and…

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7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Canadian Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Rain, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weekly Outlook

Catching Up On A Tuesday Evening…

Several interesting weather items are on the docket and each will have to be dealt with as they come over the course of the upcoming 7 days.  Some of the headlines include a brief warm-up Saturday, weekend rain that could include a tropical connection Sunday, and another big shot of October-like chill next week.

While we have a few more days of below normal temperatures in front of us, we eye at least one day where temperatures will manage to climb above normal and that’s Saturday.  All indications still suggest we’ll be very close, if not a degree or two higher, than the 80 degree mark along with a nice southwest air flow in place Saturday.  All-in-all, it’ll be a great day to take care of any early-autumn yard work that’s needing to get done.

Changes brew Sunday as a cold front draws near.  This is where questions lie and they actually have to do with Tropical Storm Odile (currently all the way to our southwest over the central Baja California peninsula region).  Odilemoisture

While the GFS and European forecast models still aren’t interested in “welcoming” Odile’s moisture into the region, we note the Canadian model does suggest some tropical moisture, courtesy of Odile, gets entangled along the front Sunday.  We’ll continue to keep a close eye on things and monitor the forecast data accordingly moving forward through the back half of the work week.

 

The other item of interest has to do with yet another big blast of autumn air that will have things feeling very much like October around these parts come early next week.  The above average temperatures Saturday will hang around just for the day as yet another unseasonably chilly air mass moves into the area Monday into Tuesday of next week as a significant trough develops over the east with an impressive western ridge in place.  f156

 

Note the GEFS and Canadian show the return of the unseasonable chill next week.  Keep those jackets handy.  Early indications would suggest this type air mass is plenty capable of highs in the upper 50s/ lower 60s and overnight lows in the upper 30s/ lower 40s during the height of the chill (most likely Tuesday).  Stay tuned…

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7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Canadian Model, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, NAEFS, Rain, Tropics, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Nice Now, But Stormier Times Loom…

What a beautiful Sunday underway across central Indiana. We made the suggestion earlier today to get outside and watch the opening Sunday of NFL if at all possible (btw, we…

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Autumn, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Heavy Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather