Category Archives: GFS

The Ups And Downs Of Autumn…

It simply doesn’t get much better than this!  Wall-to-wall sunshine and temperatures in the lower to middle 70s across central Indiana this afternoon…  If you aren’t outside now, we are making it mandatory to get outside upon reading this!  🙂  Enjoy, as the ups and downs of autumn will send us in an opposite direction late in the upcoming week.

Forecast models are coming into better agreement on the evolution of things heading into next weekend.  While there are still a couple of important differences between the GFS and European, we’re growing increasingly confident on a much colder feel next weekend.

Note the latest GFS operational run stacked atop individual ensemble members.  Needless to say, there’s ensemble support and leads to a higher confidence forecast in the mid range of a deep trough carving itself out across the Mid West and East.  Unseasonably cold air would be associated with this.

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Meanwhile, the European model is more extreme, suggesting a cut off feature develops across the southeast before helping spawn a Nor Easter and leading to high ground accumulating snows from the southern Appalachians northeast along the spine of the mountains.

Again, there’s ensemble support (left) to go with the operational run (right).

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EC2

Whether or not we get some sort of cut off low pressure system to really dig in and help generate high ground snow is up for debate and will be the focal point for many for the upcoming week.

Back here on the home front we’re becoming increasingly confident on the first push of wintry type air here next weekend and timing will have to be fine tuned as we move forward, including the all-important Halloween forecast.  The type air mass moving in will most likely put an end to the growing season across these parts as it’s likely capable of producing multiple below freezing nights.

Much more in the days ahead!  In the meantime, enjoy what we have in front of us now!

Arctic Cold, Autumn, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Much Needed Dry Time On Deck For #Harvest14…

Despite another day of showery, damp weather Wednesday, the overall “trend is our friend” in the short to mid range as a much drier pattern develops.

Drier, cooler air will penetrate into the Mid West and Ohio Valley as the weekend draws closer.

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It’s important to note the GFS has support on the drier trend to include some other highly respected mid range model suites such as the Canadian and European.

The next round of rain arrives Tuesday with reinforcing chilly air that could deliver mid and late week frost and freeze conditions for parts of the region.  The Canadian is a little more bullish on rainfall totals when stacked against the GFS and European.  We’ll continue to monitor.

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Regardless of Tuesday rain, we’ll quickly return to a dry regime by the middle of next week.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) agrees on a drier pattern in the mid range.

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Latest forecast rainfall totals off the GFS model suggest amounts of 0.50″, or less, across the region over the upcoming 7-days, and it’s important to note half of that likely falls Wednesday with showers associated with swirling low pressure around the region.

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Note the cooler trend developing in the 7-day, as well:

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If your company depends on snow removal or other types of winter weather, please send us an e-mail for customized winter weather consulting at bill@indywx.com.

7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Canadian Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Harvest'14, Rain, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Carefully Watching Monday Night/ Tuesday For Storm Potential…

While rain and chilly air are the headlines as we wrap up the work week and open another important college football weekend (my anticipation is building rapidly for my beloved Tigers taking on a dangerous MS. State squad Saturday afternoon- WAR EAGLE, btw), our attention is continuing to focus in on the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday morning across the region.

Forecast models continue to suggest strengthening low pressure will track northeast from MO into IL and MI Monday night into Tuesday morning.

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The region will briefly get into a warm and humid environment Monday and Monday night (plenty capable of fueling strong to severe thunderstorm development).  Temperatures in the 70s will combine with dew points in the low to mid 60s.

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A ribbon of precipitable water values will approach 2″ across the state Monday night.  This supports heavy and locally flash flood producing rainfall.  Forecast models continue to key on additional Monday-Tuesday rainfall in the 1-2″+ range.

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We’ll continue to closely monitor the data as we move forward, but at this early juncture, make a mental note to be weather-aware Monday night into Tuesday morning as strong to severe thunderstorm potential develops.

European Model, Forecast Discussion, GFS, Heavy Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms

Tuesday Morning Rambles…

1.) We posted our weekly outlook last night and this can be found below.  An active weather pattern continues.  2.) A cold front will move through the region later this evening. As a result, showers and embedded thunder will be around into the afternoon hours before drier, cooler air builds in tonight behind the front.  Forecast radar shows rain and embedded storm chances continuing into the afternoon:

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3.) Wednesday looks like the pick of the week with plentiful sunshine and pleasantly cool temperatures.  4.) Rain and storm chances return as early as Thursday into Friday.  5.) Friday stands to be quite an ugly day with rain chances and a new push of unseasonably chilly air.  A big thermal fight will be in place Friday as portions of northern Indiana don’t make it out of the 40s while temperatures across far southern areas of the state go into the 70s.  More specific to our region, look for falling daytime temperatures starting in the upper 50s.

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Autumn, Forecast Discussion, GFS, HRRR, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Rambles

Weekly Outlook: Active And Cool!

Another active period of weather is in store for the region. (After an extended stretch of pleasant conditions from late September into the opening of October, I guess we shouldn’t complain too much).

Dry days will be at a premium over the course of the upcoming 7-days.  The final in a series of disturbances in the fast northwest flow will blow through the region Tuesday.  This will offer up a threat of scattered showers and a possible rumble of thunder through the daytime hours. Latest forecast radar data suggests showers and embedded thunder will be ongoing Tuesday morning.

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After a dry day Wednesday (filled with lots of sunshine), we anticipate clouds and rain to quickly return as early as Thursday.  Forecast models handle the evolution of things differently at this juncture. For now, we’ll side with a blend of the GFS and Euro and serve up best rain chances late Thursday into Friday, followed by less concentration of rain Saturday, coupled with cool north winds.

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Saturday is a tough call at this point.  The cold front will be south of our area and chilly Canadian high pressure will be building in, but we may keep considerable cloudiness and pesky showers around (similar to last Saturday?). Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune.

Note the cooler than normal air settling in over the weekend.

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7-day rainfall numbers vary greatly from model to model.  Upcoming weekly rainfall totals range from as little as 1″ to as much as 2″.  The Canadian model is the most aggressive, suggesting over 2″ on a widespread basis.

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Just beyond this time next week we may be looking at an even more significant storm system, but we still have time to fine tune things as we move forward.

Despite the dry weather late September through October’s open, the past 30 days have featured beneficial to excessive Corn Belt rainfall…

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Year-to-date has featured a wet eastern region.  Also note the dry pattern across the southwest (some places under 1″ YTD)!  Officially, we’re just slightly wetter than normal at IND, year-to-date (+0.53″).

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Thinking longer term towards the darker, colder, and snowier months ahead… The JAMSTEC remains “bullish” on a regime plenty capable of delivering the cold and snowy “goods” for the region…  BTW- we usually post our annual winter outlook the first Friday of October.  Things have been very hectic as of late and we’re going to have to delay this release by a few weeks….

ssta.glob.DJF2015.1sep2014temp2.glob.DJF2015.1sep2014tprep.glob.DJF2015.1sep2014

Autumn, Canadian Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Heavy Rain, HRRR, JAMSTEC, Rain, snow, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weekly Outlook